Strategic Planning for Operational Oceanography
3
industry, and behind them the military, were prepared to pay substantially for the
safety and efficiency which were dependent upon good forecasts. Modem analysis
of the economic value of weather forecasting is very sophisticated, and there are
numerous works on the subject, for example Katz and Murphy (1997).
By comparison, measurement, modelling and forecasting the oceans and coastal
seas are more complex because of the sca1es of mesoscale eddies and fronts, indicating a computer requirement 1000 times more powerful than that needed for global meteorology (Pollard, 1994; OECD, 1994), because the instrumentation is
more technologically challenging, the scientific processes are less well understood,
and the benefits are, at first sight, less obvious. The revolution in computing power
and numeric al modelling during the last ten years has made ocean modelling practica1, and the availability of satellite remote sensing with steadily reduc ing costs
provides a valuable global data set for assimilation into routine models. But
obtaining an adequate description of the internal state of the ocean depends upon in
situ instrumentation, which, in many cases, is still in a stage of prototype deve1opment.
Since 1989 there has been a steadily increasing effort to evaluate the economic
and social value of the marine and coastal industries and services, and the implicit
value of the marine environment (OECD, 1994; Glantz, 1992; National Research
Council, 1989; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 1993; Sassone and Weiher,
1996; Adams et al., 1995; Woods et al., 1996; Costanza, 1997; Pugh and Skinner,
1996; IFREMER, 1999; Weiher, 1999; RASCL, 1999). Recent work by
EuroGOOS (Fischer and Flemming, 1999) shows that, from a list of 136 categories
of activity, representatives of almost every industrial, commercial, and environmental and conservation service in the marine environment can specify marine
operational data which would improve the efficiency of their activity. The only
activities which did not respond to the survey were deep sea mining and extraction
of minerals from sea water. If we add to this range of environmental and commercial activities the objectives of managing, predicting, and possibly controlling climate variability and c1imate change, it is c1ear that the base now exists for
justifying operational oceanography in the same way that meteorology was justified 20-30 years ago. Flemming (1999) has summarised the value of trying to
assess the aggregate economic and social benefits from an ocean observing system
which will provide forecasts on timescales from hours to decades.
Different regions identify different timescales of the whole spectrum of forecastable marine processes as potentially important. In the USA and central and
southern Americas the impact of the El Nifio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates economic and social value assessment. In China, South East Asia, and southern Asia it is the Monsoon cyc1e. In Europe it is the impact of short term ocean and
coastal processes on marine industries and services, followed by potential c1imate
forecasts of the impact of fluctuations in the North Atlantic Osci11ation and the
Gulf Stream. Every human being stands to benefit from understanding and forecasting the variability of global c1imate on a timescale of decades, but that benefit
is so far into the future, and so uncertain, that it is still difficult to quantify.
3
industry, and behind them the military, were prepared to pay substantially for the
safety and efficiency which were dependent upon good forecasts. Modem analysis
of the economic value of weather forecasting is very sophisticated, and there are
numerous works on the subject, for example Katz and Murphy (1997).
By comparison, measurement, modelling and forecasting the oceans and coastal
seas are more complex because of the sca1es of mesoscale eddies and fronts, indicating a computer requirement 1000 times more powerful than that needed for global meteorology (Pollard, 1994; OECD, 1994), because the instrumentation is
more technologically challenging, the scientific processes are less well understood,
and the benefits are, at first sight, less obvious. The revolution in computing power
and numeric al modelling during the last ten years has made ocean modelling practica1, and the availability of satellite remote sensing with steadily reduc ing costs
provides a valuable global data set for assimilation into routine models. But
obtaining an adequate description of the internal state of the ocean depends upon in
situ instrumentation, which, in many cases, is still in a stage of prototype deve1opment.
Since 1989 there has been a steadily increasing effort to evaluate the economic
and social value of the marine and coastal industries and services, and the implicit
value of the marine environment (OECD, 1994; Glantz, 1992; National Research
Council, 1989; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 1993; Sassone and Weiher,
1996; Adams et al., 1995; Woods et al., 1996; Costanza, 1997; Pugh and Skinner,
1996; IFREMER, 1999; Weiher, 1999; RASCL, 1999). Recent work by
EuroGOOS (Fischer and Flemming, 1999) shows that, from a list of 136 categories
of activity, representatives of almost every industrial, commercial, and environmental and conservation service in the marine environment can specify marine
operational data which would improve the efficiency of their activity. The only
activities which did not respond to the survey were deep sea mining and extraction
of minerals from sea water. If we add to this range of environmental and commercial activities the objectives of managing, predicting, and possibly controlling climate variability and c1imate change, it is c1ear that the base now exists for
justifying operational oceanography in the same way that meteorology was justified 20-30 years ago. Flemming (1999) has summarised the value of trying to
assess the aggregate economic and social benefits from an ocean observing system
which will provide forecasts on timescales from hours to decades.
Different regions identify different timescales of the whole spectrum of forecastable marine processes as potentially important. In the USA and central and
southern Americas the impact of the El Nifio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates economic and social value assessment. In China, South East Asia, and southern Asia it is the Monsoon cyc1e. In Europe it is the impact of short term ocean and
coastal processes on marine industries and services, followed by potential c1imate
forecasts of the impact of fluctuations in the North Atlantic Osci11ation and the
Gulf Stream. Every human being stands to benefit from understanding and forecasting the variability of global c1imate on a timescale of decades, but that benefit
is so far into the future, and so uncertain, that it is still difficult to quantify.