13 Predictions in the North Sea
DAVID PRANDLE
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Bidston Observatory,Birkenhead, UK,
CH437RA
13.1 Introduction
13.1.1 Approach
This chapter aims to address the following
a)What do we want to predict in shelf seas and why?
b )What can we predict now?
c)What can't we predict?
d)An identification of the underlying enabling factors and constraints in (b) and
(c) and thence ways forward.
For convenience, applications described here tend to focus on simulations ofthe
North West European Shelf Seas undertaken at the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory.
13.1.2 What do we want to predict in shelf seas?
Table 13.1 summarises requirements described at a EuroGOOS User Group
meeting held in June 1999. It is necessary to protect people from flooding and the
environment from accidental, unplanned or ill-advised contamination. Industry
requires marine environmental information in both design and operational phases
e.g. defence, navigation, offshore oiI, gas and aggregate extraction. These usages
must be accommodated within a shared environment in which overlapping and
occasionally conflicting interests are viewed in the broader perspective outlined
below.
13.1.3 Shelf Seas - a global perspective
Increased concentration of atmospheric CO 2 along with other indicators, provide
a warning that relatively rapid changes in the global environment may already be in
progress. The likelihood that industrialisation has contributed to such changes has
focused scientific research into the causal mechanisms, possible remedial actions
and the future impacts. Since the world's oceans are the dominant feature in moderating global environmental mechanisms, related international programmes have
been established (e.g. WOCE, World Ocean Circulation Experiment, http://
www.soc.soton.ac.uk/OTHERS/woceipo/ipo.html). involving observations, global
circulation models and studies of specific processes (e.g. BOFS, Biogeochemical
Ocean Flux Study, www.bodc.ac.uk/project/bofs.html).
DAVID PRANDLE
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Bidston Observatory,Birkenhead, UK,
CH437RA
13.1 Introduction
13.1.1 Approach
This chapter aims to address the following
a)What do we want to predict in shelf seas and why?
b )What can we predict now?
c)What can't we predict?
d)An identification of the underlying enabling factors and constraints in (b) and
(c) and thence ways forward.
For convenience, applications described here tend to focus on simulations ofthe
North West European Shelf Seas undertaken at the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory.
13.1.2 What do we want to predict in shelf seas?
Table 13.1 summarises requirements described at a EuroGOOS User Group
meeting held in June 1999. It is necessary to protect people from flooding and the
environment from accidental, unplanned or ill-advised contamination. Industry
requires marine environmental information in both design and operational phases
e.g. defence, navigation, offshore oiI, gas and aggregate extraction. These usages
must be accommodated within a shared environment in which overlapping and
occasionally conflicting interests are viewed in the broader perspective outlined
below.
13.1.3 Shelf Seas - a global perspective
Increased concentration of atmospheric CO 2 along with other indicators, provide
a warning that relatively rapid changes in the global environment may already be in
progress. The likelihood that industrialisation has contributed to such changes has
focused scientific research into the causal mechanisms, possible remedial actions
and the future impacts. Since the world's oceans are the dominant feature in moderating global environmental mechanisms, related international programmes have
been established (e.g. WOCE, World Ocean Circulation Experiment, http://
www.soc.soton.ac.uk/OTHERS/woceipo/ipo.html). involving observations, global
circulation models and studies of specific processes (e.g. BOFS, Biogeochemical
Ocean Flux Study, www.bodc.ac.uk/project/bofs.html).