220 Alian R. Robinson and Jurgen Sellschopp
200
HAAfARD I SACLANTCEN RAq7
SURF TEMP - 30 SEP q7
411) IXielD.
q3() IAI)(eT.
fN"OC SURF. rORCINC
HAR'ARD I SICLIHTeEN RR'
100
200
H.RvARD , $ACLANltE:N RM'
MIXED LAYER - 30 SEP Q7
41b I):'Jr:TO.
03t1 IAIJer.
f'NI10r: SURr. f lRtlNG
HARVARD I SACLANTCEN R~1
57
45
30
15
10 ;
B.l
5.5
O.B
Fig. 11.9 Sampling of the products issued during RR97. Shown are maps of surf ace
temperature and mixed layer depth for 30 September 1997 in the large forecast domain, a
south-north vertical section of temperature along 18.S0E for 30 September 1997 and a map
of bottom velocity in the mine warfare (Kiparissia Bay) domain for 20 September 1997.
11.6.4 Forecast evaluations
Subjective evaluations ofthe real-time forecasts during RR96 and RR97 are presented below. These rich data sets also provide the possibilities for quantitative
hindcast studies and REA Observational System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs),
some of which have been initiated. Quantitative skill metrics for objective evaluations ofthe real-time forecasts are under development.
A quick-Iook verification ofpredicted variations offeatures in the Sicilian Channel was perforrned for four dates during RR96 as the exercise proceeded (Sellschopp and Robinson, 1997). The satellite sea surface temperature images and the
HOPS nowcasts and forecasts were selected and the position and shape of three
dominant features were identified, as well as their development in time. These