16
16.1
16.2
16.2.1
16.2.2
16.2.3
16.3
16.3.1
16.3.2
16.4
16.4.1
16.4.2
16.5
16.5.1
16.5.2
16.6
17
17.1
17.2
17.3
17.4
17.5
17.5.1
17.5.2
17.6
17.7
ENSO Predictions with Coupled Ocean Atmosphere
Models ................................................................................... 307
MARTIN FISCHER
Introduction ............................................................................ 307
The El Nifio / Southem Osci11ation Phenomenon .................. 308
Description ............................................................................. 308
ENSO predictability ............................................................... 314
The impact ofENSO on climate and economy ...................... 316
ENSO prediction mode1s ........................................................ 319
Statistical ENSO prediction mode1s ....................................... 319
Physical ENSO prediction models ......................................... 320
ENSO predictions ................................................................... 323
Initialization methods ............................................................. 323
Results of ENSO prediction experiments .............................. 326
Interpretation of ENSO forecast results ................................. 332
Definition of an appropriate skill measure ............................. 332
Correction of systematic errors .............................................. 333
Summary ................................................................................ 335
Toward Marine Environmental Predictions in the
Mediterranean Sea Coastal Areas: A Monitoring Approach .339
NADIA PINARDI, FRANCIS AUCLAIR, CLAUDIA CESARINI,
ENCHO DEMIROV, SERENA FONDA UMANI, MICHELE GIANI,
GIUSEPPE MONTANARI, PAOLO ODDO, MARINA TONANI AND
MARCO ZAVATARELLI
Introduction ............................................................................ 339
The Mediterranean Sea shelf and coastal ecosystems ............ 342
The coastal environmental predictions system ...................... 347
The Mediterranean large scale and Adriatic coastal scale
observing systems .................................................................. 353
The mode ling system and the data assimilation components 358
The large and coastal scale hydrodynamic modeling ............. 358
The ecosystem modeling ........................................................ 366
The calibration/validation exercise in the Northem Adriatic
coastal areas ........................................................................... 369
Conclusions ............................................................................ 373
18
Primitive Equation Modelling of Plankton Ecosystems •.. 377
JOHNWOODS
18.1
Introduction ............................................................................ 377
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