xii
9
On North Atlantic Intedecadal Variability:
A Stochastic View ................................................................. 149
MOJIB LATIF, AXEL TIMMERMANN, ANSELM GROTZNER,
CHRISTIAN ECKERT, REINHARD Voss
9.1
Introduction ........................................................................... 149
9.2
The stochastic climate model ................................................. 155
9.3
Quasi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic ..................... 160
9.4
Interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic ........................ 164
9.5
Predictability ofinterdecadal variability in the North Atlantic 170
9.6
Discussion .............................................................................. 176
10
Strategy for Regional Seasonal Forecasts .......................... 179
KIKURO MIY AKODA
10.1
10.2
10.2.1
10.2.2
10.2.3
10.2.4
10.3
10.3.1
10.3.2
10.3.3
10.3.4
10.4
10.4.1
10.4.2
10.5
10.5.1
10.5.2
10.6
10.6.1
10.6.2
Numerical predictions in general ........................................... 179
Atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models (GCMs) 180
Basic questions ....................................................................... 180
Vertical boundary conditions .................................................. 181
Numerical aspects of atmospheric GCMs .............................. 182
Surface boundary conditions of oceanic GCM (z-coordinate) 183
Nested techniques ................................................................... 186
Eta-coordinate ........................................................................ 186
Horizontal grids ...................................................................... 186
Potential difficulty in mesh nesting ........................................ 187
Lateral mesh nesting .............................................................. 189
Nested predictions .................................................................. 189
Hurricane prediction ............................................................... 189
Eta-model prediction .............................................................. 191
Long-range prediction ............................................................ 193
Current state of monthly forecasts in general ........................ 193
Teleconnections from the tropics to the Mediterranean Sea .. 193
Regional10ng-range prediction .............................................. 193
Limited domain 30 day predictions over complex terrain ..... 193
Indian monsoon forecasts ....................................................... 194
10.7
Conclusions and commcnts .................................................... 195
11
11.1
11.1.1
11.1.2
11.1.3
11.2
11.3
Rapid Assessment of the Coastal Ocean Environment ..... 199
ALLAN R. ROBINSON AND JURGEN SELLSCHOPP
Introduction ............................................................................ 199
Nowcasting and forecasting for REA .................................... 201
Naval REA ............................................................................. 201
Civilian REA .......................................................................... 202
Nowcasting and Forecasting the Physics ............................... 202
Implications and Applications ofthe Physics ........................ 204