Estimates of Surface Heat Fluxes
77
Such a program is likely to occupy at least a decade, probably more. But coming
back to the Perth water supply problem, and future problems like it: decisionmakers
need to see proven success stories—“runs on the board”—from numerical models,
before they will feel confident in making big financial decisions. The record of clear
global greenhouse warming now extends back to the 1970s; it is extending in length—
and probably also in intensity—decade by decade; we should, within a decade or two,
be able to offer such decisionmakers more sophisticated analyses of what processes
lie behind the observed warming, region by region. If we are able to explain to them,
region by region, why certain climate trends have occurred in particular parts of the
world over the last 30 years or so, they will be more willing to take action based on
the model predictions for the next few decades.
However, if this is to come about, we must carefully check the promise of this
new observational tool. This involves a long, expensive campaign of difficult observations, with IMET-type moorings and ship installations, WOCE-style hydrographic
lines, and other such tools. It also presupposes that the satellite resources presently
available are continued into the future.
Before closing, I would also like to add my voice to those protesting at the
deeply wrongheaded policies being imposed on NASA. Their satellites have provided
us with an unprecedented ability to keep track of the changes that are occurring to our
climate—both natural and human-induced. Regardless of what one believes about
greenhouse climate research, we need that ability into the future. We seem at risk
of throwing such skills away, at a time when most climate scientists believe that
greenhouse-induced climate change offers a “clear and present danger” to us all, in
favour of putting one or two people on a piece of land much less attractive than any
found on Earth. This is childish and irresponsible, and must not be allowed to happen.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I gave a draft of this essay to Bob Weller, Lisan Yu, and Simon Josey. They provided
plenty of very constructive criticism of the technical aspects of the essay, which has
allowed me to improve it greatly, in my own estimation. However, my brief was to
write a “subjective essay,” which is an invitation no retired scientist can refuse. I have
indeed been subjective in places; I wish to state that all opinions expressed in this
essay are strictly my own.
REFERENCES
Bjerknes, J., 1969. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Weather Rev. 97, 163–
173.
Chou, S., E. Nelkin, J. Ardizzone, R. M. Atlas, and C. L. Shie, 2003. Surface turbulent heat and momentum
fluxes over global oceans based on the Goddard satellite retrievals, Version 2 (GSSTF2). J. Climate
16, 3256–3273.
77
Such a program is likely to occupy at least a decade, probably more. But coming
back to the Perth water supply problem, and future problems like it: decisionmakers
need to see proven success stories—“runs on the board”—from numerical models,
before they will feel confident in making big financial decisions. The record of clear
global greenhouse warming now extends back to the 1970s; it is extending in length—
and probably also in intensity—decade by decade; we should, within a decade or two,
be able to offer such decisionmakers more sophisticated analyses of what processes
lie behind the observed warming, region by region. If we are able to explain to them,
region by region, why certain climate trends have occurred in particular parts of the
world over the last 30 years or so, they will be more willing to take action based on
the model predictions for the next few decades.
However, if this is to come about, we must carefully check the promise of this
new observational tool. This involves a long, expensive campaign of difficult observations, with IMET-type moorings and ship installations, WOCE-style hydrographic
lines, and other such tools. It also presupposes that the satellite resources presently
available are continued into the future.
Before closing, I would also like to add my voice to those protesting at the
deeply wrongheaded policies being imposed on NASA. Their satellites have provided
us with an unprecedented ability to keep track of the changes that are occurring to our
climate—both natural and human-induced. Regardless of what one believes about
greenhouse climate research, we need that ability into the future. We seem at risk
of throwing such skills away, at a time when most climate scientists believe that
greenhouse-induced climate change offers a “clear and present danger” to us all, in
favour of putting one or two people on a piece of land much less attractive than any
found on Earth. This is childish and irresponsible, and must not be allowed to happen.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I gave a draft of this essay to Bob Weller, Lisan Yu, and Simon Josey. They provided
plenty of very constructive criticism of the technical aspects of the essay, which has
allowed me to improve it greatly, in my own estimation. However, my brief was to
write a “subjective essay,” which is an invitation no retired scientist can refuse. I have
indeed been subjective in places; I wish to state that all opinions expressed in this
essay are strictly my own.
REFERENCES
Bjerknes, J., 1969. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Weather Rev. 97, 163–
173.
Chou, S., E. Nelkin, J. Ardizzone, R. M. Atlas, and C. L. Shie, 2003. Surface turbulent heat and momentum
fluxes over global oceans based on the Goddard satellite retrievals, Version 2 (GSSTF2). J. Climate
16, 3256–3273.