9.3.2 Permutation (PP)
and Bootstrap (BP) Procedures
9.3.3 Properties . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.3.4 Interdependence Among Field Variables
9.4 Serial Correlation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.4.1 Local Probability Matching . . . . . . .
9.4.2 Times Series and Monte Carlo Methods
9.4.3 Independent SampIes .
9.4.4 Conservatism
9.5 Concluding Remarks . . . .
10 The Evaluation of Forecasts
by ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . .
10.2 Considerations for Objective Verification .
10.2.1 Quantification . . . . . . . . . . .
10.2.2 Authentication . . . . . . . . . . .
10.2.3 Description of Prob ability Distributions
10.2.4 Comparison of Forecasts .
10.3 Measures and Relationships:
Categorical Forecasts . . . . . . .
10.3.1 Contingency and Definitions.
10.3.2 Some Scores Based on the Contingency Table .
10.4 Measures and Relationships:
Continuous Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.4.1 Mean Squared Error and Correlation .
10.4.2 Pattern Verification
(the Murphy-Epstein Decomposition)
10.5 Hindcasts and Cross-Validation . . . . . . .
10.5.1 Cross-Validation Procedure . . . . .
10.5.2 Key Constraints in Cross-Validation
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11 Stochastic Modeling of Precipitation with Applications to
Climate Model Downscaling
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by DENNIS LETTEN MAlER
11.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . .
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11.2 Probabilistic Characteristics
of Precipitation . . . . . . . .
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11.3 Stochastic Models of Precipitation
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11.3.1 Background . . . . . . . . .
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11.3.2 Applications to Global Change
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11.4 Stochastic Precipitation Models with External Forcing
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11.4.1 Weather Classification Schemes . . . . . . . .
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11.4.2 Conditional Stochastic Precipitation Models.
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11.5 Applications to Alternative Climate Simulation .
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11.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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