say over a period of 10 years, this will add only around 0.075 Gt to the annual
increase, compared to the annual increase of 1 Gt globally (see above). This is only
7.5 % of the increase in annual CO 2 accretions, but CO 2 levels will still be
increasing year-to-year, unless some great new sink or method of fixing it could be
found. In other words, India by itself will not be able to contribute meaningfully to
the resolution of the GHG problem just by curbing energy production at current
levels, or influence the actions of the rest of the world (this is not a situation where
the famous moral force of Gandhism can be applied!). So, India will have to
proceed as if the rest of the world is going to keep increasing its emissions in the
near future. If India were to make any voluntary, unilateral sacrifices now, it would
have neither the imagined benefits of the reduced carbon loads, nor the benefits of a
stronger economy and greater world influence in the future. Indeed, the very fact
that a huge population like India foregoes its present entitlements, will only prompt
other countries to appropriate that share for themselves.
Therefore, it is not a rational strategy for a country like India to make any
unilateral cuts or promises at the present juncture, and this has rightly been our
position in the world climate conferences, with the only concession made that we
will never exceed the current per capita emission levels of the industrial countries.
This, of course, we will never even aspire to: as it has been repeated often enough,
we will need another seven planet Earths if all were to consume at the western
levels. We will, however, be aspiring to some intermediate level of consumption,
which will require a manyfold increase in the production of energy and various
other sectors. On the other hand, India has the world’s largest population of poor,
with low quality of life indicators; it has to vigorously pursue its course of positive
affirmation to set right the historical wrongs to sections of the population, and
increase investment in public health and medicare, education, communications,
skills development, job creation, etc., and at the same time play its geopolitical role
as one of the largest economies of the world. The experience of the last general
election suggests that the masses also are looking for something beyond just subsidized food and other doles, and there is a huge middle class that has aspirations of
making it in the modern economy.
This does not mean, however, that we should be indifferent to the issues of
environmental degradation in our own sphere, quite regardless of the world climate
conferences (just as, indeed, high carbon emitters like the developed west would be
well advised to reduce per capita consumption levels, not for the sake of the global
good, but in the interests of the health and well-being of their own citizens). Indeed,
this has been the strategy adopted by our governments over the past decades: while
insisting on our share of the global carbon cake, in terms of increasing per capita
consumption (and emissions) levels, we have also steadily taken many steps to
improving the sustainability of our development process and mitigating damage to
our own environment. Of course, the complaint is that we are strong in legislation,
but weak in enforcement, as the numerous articles in the popular media, and the
spate of environmental cases in the courts, attest. This lag between intent and
action, however, is to be expected during the catch-up phase, when all output levels
are being racked up manyfold. In keeping with the form of the Kuznets curve, we
Climate Change Strategies and Developing Nations …
33
increase, compared to the annual increase of 1 Gt globally (see above). This is only
7.5 % of the increase in annual CO 2 accretions, but CO 2 levels will still be
increasing year-to-year, unless some great new sink or method of fixing it could be
found. In other words, India by itself will not be able to contribute meaningfully to
the resolution of the GHG problem just by curbing energy production at current
levels, or influence the actions of the rest of the world (this is not a situation where
the famous moral force of Gandhism can be applied!). So, India will have to
proceed as if the rest of the world is going to keep increasing its emissions in the
near future. If India were to make any voluntary, unilateral sacrifices now, it would
have neither the imagined benefits of the reduced carbon loads, nor the benefits of a
stronger economy and greater world influence in the future. Indeed, the very fact
that a huge population like India foregoes its present entitlements, will only prompt
other countries to appropriate that share for themselves.
Therefore, it is not a rational strategy for a country like India to make any
unilateral cuts or promises at the present juncture, and this has rightly been our
position in the world climate conferences, with the only concession made that we
will never exceed the current per capita emission levels of the industrial countries.
This, of course, we will never even aspire to: as it has been repeated often enough,
we will need another seven planet Earths if all were to consume at the western
levels. We will, however, be aspiring to some intermediate level of consumption,
which will require a manyfold increase in the production of energy and various
other sectors. On the other hand, India has the world’s largest population of poor,
with low quality of life indicators; it has to vigorously pursue its course of positive
affirmation to set right the historical wrongs to sections of the population, and
increase investment in public health and medicare, education, communications,
skills development, job creation, etc., and at the same time play its geopolitical role
as one of the largest economies of the world. The experience of the last general
election suggests that the masses also are looking for something beyond just subsidized food and other doles, and there is a huge middle class that has aspirations of
making it in the modern economy.
This does not mean, however, that we should be indifferent to the issues of
environmental degradation in our own sphere, quite regardless of the world climate
conferences (just as, indeed, high carbon emitters like the developed west would be
well advised to reduce per capita consumption levels, not for the sake of the global
good, but in the interests of the health and well-being of their own citizens). Indeed,
this has been the strategy adopted by our governments over the past decades: while
insisting on our share of the global carbon cake, in terms of increasing per capita
consumption (and emissions) levels, we have also steadily taken many steps to
improving the sustainability of our development process and mitigating damage to
our own environment. Of course, the complaint is that we are strong in legislation,
but weak in enforcement, as the numerous articles in the popular media, and the
spate of environmental cases in the courts, attest. This lag between intent and
action, however, is to be expected during the catch-up phase, when all output levels
are being racked up manyfold. In keeping with the form of the Kuznets curve, we
Climate Change Strategies and Developing Nations …
33