Precipitation scenarios in the Central-Western Mediterranean basin
Fig.6. Geographical distribution of the percent Fig.7. As Fig.6 but for 2030
rainfall variation from the reference mean 19511980, predicted by Winter's model for 2010
255
and the average rainfall series. It has been evaluated a rainfall decrease of -127.0
mm '" -20 % in 20 \0 and -173.8 mm '= -28% in 2030 from the 1951-1980 reference
mean.
The same described process has been applied to forecast rainfall in each of the
stations used to construct the mean Central-Western Mediterranean series, in which
the above mentioned anticorrelation between precipitation and 500 hPa height was
found.
The obtained results, reported as percentage variations from the reference mean
1951-1980, are shown in Figs. 6 and 7, respectively for 2010 and 2030. In particular
in 2030, a strong decrease over Southern Italy (Puglia, Sicily, Sardinia) and over
Northern Africa (Tunisia) is found.
6 Forecast of Soil Moisture
Scenarios of soil moisture over the Central-Western Mediterranean basin has been
calculated until 2030, using De Martonne's index (Burgos et al.), depending on
temperature and precipitation. It is defined by
where:
P
1 = - -
T+lO
P = total annual precipitation (mm) and
T = mean annual temperature CC).
(5)
On the basis of the index values, the following classification has been proposed:
Fig.6. Geographical distribution of the percent Fig.7. As Fig.6 but for 2030
rainfall variation from the reference mean 19511980, predicted by Winter's model for 2010
255
and the average rainfall series. It has been evaluated a rainfall decrease of -127.0
mm '" -20 % in 20 \0 and -173.8 mm '= -28% in 2030 from the 1951-1980 reference
mean.
The same described process has been applied to forecast rainfall in each of the
stations used to construct the mean Central-Western Mediterranean series, in which
the above mentioned anticorrelation between precipitation and 500 hPa height was
found.
The obtained results, reported as percentage variations from the reference mean
1951-1980, are shown in Figs. 6 and 7, respectively for 2010 and 2030. In particular
in 2030, a strong decrease over Southern Italy (Puglia, Sicily, Sardinia) and over
Northern Africa (Tunisia) is found.
6 Forecast of Soil Moisture
Scenarios of soil moisture over the Central-Western Mediterranean basin has been
calculated until 2030, using De Martonne's index (Burgos et al.), depending on
temperature and precipitation. It is defined by
where:
P
1 = - -
T+lO
P = total annual precipitation (mm) and
T = mean annual temperature CC).
(5)
On the basis of the index values, the following classification has been proposed: