SOO-year Winter Temperature and Precipitation Variability over the Mediterranean Area
141
(AD 1500-1995) winter temperature mean is around 6.Te. The standard deviation
isO.58e. However, the time series clearly shows periods with extended coldness and
warm intervals on which shorter-period quasi-oscillatory behaviour was
superimposed. The 16 th and most of the 17th century were rather warm. An abrupt
drop of mean winter Mediterranean temperature of the order of IC followed at the
end of the 17th century (Late Maunder Minimum). The 18 th century shows winter
temperatures fluctuating around the long-term mean without extended cold or warm
periods. The winter of 1772 was the warmest winter for the reconstructed period
with around 1 SC higher reconstructed temperatures than the long-term 1500-1995
mean. This winter temperature distribution will be presented in Figure 4. In the
second part of the 20 th century, however, there were a few warmer winters. After a
warm beginning of the 19 th century, the temperature decreased successively till the
1890s with the coldest winter being 1891 (-1.7 C reduced winter mean temperature,
see also Figure 4). The 20 th century was characterised by strong fluctuations around
the long-term mean and temperature increase from the 1950s.
3.2
Mediterranean Winter Climate Extremes Over the Last Five
Centuries
Figure 4 (top) presents the reconstructed fields of the coldest (1891), warmest
(1772), driest (1609) and wettest (1684) Mediterranean winter over the last centuries
according to Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The charts in the middle of Figure 4 show
the anomalies of these extremes from the long-term 1901-1995 means. The bottom
charts present the model performance (RE) for the four anomalous winter
temperature and precipitation reconstructions, therefore they give rise where the
reconstructions are trustworthy and where not.
The largest anomalies for the coldest winter (1891) can be found in a zonally
elongated band between around 44'N to SIN (Figure 4 middle). These anomalies
are of the order of 3 to Se. The Mediterranean area south of around 40N shows up
to 3 C colder conditions than the long-term mean. A warmer winter was
experienced over Scandinavia with maximum positive anomalies of 4e. The
corresponding quality of th i s reconstructed winter (Figure 4 bottom) clear I y indicates
reliable reconstructions all over the grid. The lowest RE values (but still positive) are
found over the western Mediterranean area and the Northern African coast.
The warmest winter over the larger Mediterranean area between AD 1500 and
1900 was 1772. It reveals large positive anomalies up to 3C over the Balkans and
Turkey (Figure 4 middle). The majority of the grid points south of 50~N show
departures of the order of 0 to 2 C from the 20 th century mean. Negative anomalies
are prevalent over Northern Europe. The quality of the reconstruction of this winter
is worse than 1891. This is due to less predictors, mainly over southern Europe
during this time (Luterbacher et al. 200 I a). For the Mediterranean area only the
station temperature and precipitation of Milan (Italy) and Marseille (France) were
available, therefore, the reconstruction quality over the Mediterranean region is
141
(AD 1500-1995) winter temperature mean is around 6.Te. The standard deviation
isO.58e. However, the time series clearly shows periods with extended coldness and
warm intervals on which shorter-period quasi-oscillatory behaviour was
superimposed. The 16 th and most of the 17th century were rather warm. An abrupt
drop of mean winter Mediterranean temperature of the order of IC followed at the
end of the 17th century (Late Maunder Minimum). The 18 th century shows winter
temperatures fluctuating around the long-term mean without extended cold or warm
periods. The winter of 1772 was the warmest winter for the reconstructed period
with around 1 SC higher reconstructed temperatures than the long-term 1500-1995
mean. This winter temperature distribution will be presented in Figure 4. In the
second part of the 20 th century, however, there were a few warmer winters. After a
warm beginning of the 19 th century, the temperature decreased successively till the
1890s with the coldest winter being 1891 (-1.7 C reduced winter mean temperature,
see also Figure 4). The 20 th century was characterised by strong fluctuations around
the long-term mean and temperature increase from the 1950s.
3.2
Mediterranean Winter Climate Extremes Over the Last Five
Centuries
Figure 4 (top) presents the reconstructed fields of the coldest (1891), warmest
(1772), driest (1609) and wettest (1684) Mediterranean winter over the last centuries
according to Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The charts in the middle of Figure 4 show
the anomalies of these extremes from the long-term 1901-1995 means. The bottom
charts present the model performance (RE) for the four anomalous winter
temperature and precipitation reconstructions, therefore they give rise where the
reconstructions are trustworthy and where not.
The largest anomalies for the coldest winter (1891) can be found in a zonally
elongated band between around 44'N to SIN (Figure 4 middle). These anomalies
are of the order of 3 to Se. The Mediterranean area south of around 40N shows up
to 3 C colder conditions than the long-term mean. A warmer winter was
experienced over Scandinavia with maximum positive anomalies of 4e. The
corresponding quality of th i s reconstructed winter (Figure 4 bottom) clear I y indicates
reliable reconstructions all over the grid. The lowest RE values (but still positive) are
found over the western Mediterranean area and the Northern African coast.
The warmest winter over the larger Mediterranean area between AD 1500 and
1900 was 1772. It reveals large positive anomalies up to 3C over the Balkans and
Turkey (Figure 4 middle). The majority of the grid points south of 50~N show
departures of the order of 0 to 2 C from the 20 th century mean. Negative anomalies
are prevalent over Northern Europe. The quality of the reconstruction of this winter
is worse than 1891. This is due to less predictors, mainly over southern Europe
during this time (Luterbacher et al. 200 I a). For the Mediterranean area only the
station temperature and precipitation of Milan (Italy) and Marseille (France) were
available, therefore, the reconstruction quality over the Mediterranean region is