PREDICTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEANS:
FROM DAYS TO DECADES
T.N.PALMER
ECMWF
Reading, UK
Contents
1 Introduction
2 Predictability of the first kind
2.1 The forecast probability density function.
2.2 Singular vectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3 Correspondence with 'normal' mode instability
2.4 Correspondence with Lyapunov exponent growth
2.5 Projection operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.6 Numerical solution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7 Singular vectors and eigenvectors of the forecast and
analysis error covariance operator. ..
2.8 Correspondence with breeding vectors
3 Examples of singular vectors
3.1 A baroclinic singular vector
3.2 Pseudo-inverse analysis
3.3 Comparison of tropical and extratropical singular vector
growth: a paradigm for tropical predictability.. . . . . .
3.4 Singular vectors for ensemble forecasting . . . . . . . . .
3.5 Weather regimes, singular vectors and sensitivity patterns
3.6 Singular vectors from a coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere model
4 Predictability of the second kind
4.1 Uncertainty in forcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.2 A simple chaotic model paradigm for predictability of the second kind
4.3 Application to atmospheric forcing by tropical SST anomalies
5 Predictability of interdecadal fluctuations
5.1 Internal atmospheric variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.2 The role of the oceans on decadal predictability . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.3 A simple chaotic 'coupled' model paradigm for decadal fluctuations
84
86
86
89
91
93
95
95
96
99
102
102
107
109
112
114
119
123
123
124
128
132
...... 132
...... 136
and predictability ..
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
6 Climate change
142
6.1 The vertical and horizontal structure of observed climate change
142
6.2 Is the observed surface warming due to the greenhouse effect? . .
145
7 Unification and rationalisation of climate and weather prediction models
148
NATO ASI Series. Vol. 144
Decadal Climate Variability
Dynamics and Predictability
Edited by David L. T. Anderson and Jiirgen Willebrand
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1996