MECHANISMS FOR DECADAL-TO-CENTENNIAL CLIMATE
VARIABILITY
E.S. SARACHIK, M. WINTON, AND F.L. YIN.
University of Washington
Seattle, USA
Contents
1 Introduction
1.1 The Instrumental Record
1.2 The Paleo-Record.
1.3 Mechanisms........
2 Forcing Function Variability
2.1 Solar Output . . . . . .
2.2 Volcanoes . . . . . . . .
2.3 Anthropogenic Aerosols
2.4 Other External Forcings
3 Stochastic Forcing
3.1 Some Simple Statistical Preliminaries.
3.1.1 Coin Tossing . . . . . . . . . .
3.1.2 The variance of sample means .
3.2 The Hasselmann Mechanism ..
3.3 Atmospheric Variability . . . .
3.4 Variability in Coupled Models .
4 Decadal ENSO Variability
5 Internal Ocean Variability
5.1 Boundary Conditions and the Concept of Internal Ocean Variability
5.2 General Considerations of Variability .
5.3 Decadal Variability . . .
5.4 Longer Term Variability . . . . . . .
6 Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Modes
7 Sudden Transitions
8 Mechanism and Predictability
NATO AS! Series, Vol. ! 44
Decadal Climate Variability
Dynamics and Predictability
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Edited by David L. T. Anderson and Jilrgen Willebrand
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1996