415
b) The synoptic scale, a vague expression meaning a spatial size somewhere between 1000 and
1500 km, when combined with the usual grid meshes, cannot resolve the main features of the
Islands climate.
c) There is a considerable lack of paleoclimatic fossile records and available data about the
water column have not been climatically exploited.
Therefore, the following alternatives seem most feasible:
a) To carry on finer observational results on geophysical magnitudes, based both in satellite
and in situ measurements, with massive Statistical information processing in order to obtain
accurate descriptions. This idea could yield a local energy-balance model theory in order to
explain some cyclic behaviours.
b) To incorporate adequate parameterizations for subgrid scale features in GCM based models.
This is an open problem, whose difficulty depends either on the existence of an acceptable
theoretical basis or the availability of solely empirical evidences. As an important question, it
must be remarked here that radiative properties in the Islands atmosphere depend with
regularity on the distribution and fractal properties of Saharian dust. Only partial approaches to
this problem are available.
c) Ad hoc model building via local versions with much finer grid meshes and an adequate
choice of the state variables. These "nested models" could live as submodels of some GeM's
and would incorporate the results of a). This seems to be the most appropriate choice with
today's state of the art.
d) Data analysis, both of recent and paleoclimatic records, not only from a multivariate
statistical viewpoint, but including more sophisticated tools. Data base analyses and
reconstruction of air parcel trajectories is but an example of immediate applicability (Sancho et
aI., 1992). Expert system modelling, as well, is a field of growing interest due to the
availabillity of computational resources. This approach, which attempts to conjecture and to
explain possible causal relationships, needs the development of new computational tools. In a
not so far future this seems to be a most interesting and practical alternative to today's
physically based mathematical modelling techniques.
References
Adams E et al. (1993) Computational chaos may be due to a single local error, J. Comput.
Phys, 104.241-250.
Bindoff N, McDougal T (1994) Diagnosing climate change and ocean ventilation using
hydrographic data, J. Phys. Ocean., 24-6, 1137-1152.
Bjerknes V (1904) Das Probem der Wettervorhersage betrachtet vom Standpunkt der Mechanik
und der Physik, Met. Zeit., 21, 1-6.
Budyko M (1%9) The effects of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth, Tellus,
21,611-619.
Charney J (1955) The generation of ocean currents by the wind, J. Marine Res., 14,477-498.
Cheeseman P, Oldf ord R, eds. (1994) Selecting models from data (Artificial1ntelligence and
Statistics, N), Lecture Notes in Statistics, 89, Springer Verlag, Berlin.
Diaz J I, Lions J L, eds. (1993) Mathematics, climate and the environment, Masson, Paris.
Drijfhout S (1994) Heat transport by mesoscale eddies in an Oceanic Circulation Model, J.
Phys. Ocean., 24-2, 353-369.
ECMWRF (1988) Predictability in the medium and extended range. Proceedings of a
Workshop held in May 1988 at Reading, UK.
Feistel R (1993) Climate and Physics of Evolution, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, (to
appear).
Fraedrich K, Ziehmann-Schlumbohm C (1994) Predictability experiments with persistence
forecasts in a red-noise atmosphere, Q.J.R. Met. Soc.,120, 387-428.
Giorgi F (1995), These Proceedings.
Grassberger P (1986) Do climatic attractors exist?, Nature, 323, 609-612.
b) The synoptic scale, a vague expression meaning a spatial size somewhere between 1000 and
1500 km, when combined with the usual grid meshes, cannot resolve the main features of the
Islands climate.
c) There is a considerable lack of paleoclimatic fossile records and available data about the
water column have not been climatically exploited.
Therefore, the following alternatives seem most feasible:
a) To carry on finer observational results on geophysical magnitudes, based both in satellite
and in situ measurements, with massive Statistical information processing in order to obtain
accurate descriptions. This idea could yield a local energy-balance model theory in order to
explain some cyclic behaviours.
b) To incorporate adequate parameterizations for subgrid scale features in GCM based models.
This is an open problem, whose difficulty depends either on the existence of an acceptable
theoretical basis or the availability of solely empirical evidences. As an important question, it
must be remarked here that radiative properties in the Islands atmosphere depend with
regularity on the distribution and fractal properties of Saharian dust. Only partial approaches to
this problem are available.
c) Ad hoc model building via local versions with much finer grid meshes and an adequate
choice of the state variables. These "nested models" could live as submodels of some GeM's
and would incorporate the results of a). This seems to be the most appropriate choice with
today's state of the art.
d) Data analysis, both of recent and paleoclimatic records, not only from a multivariate
statistical viewpoint, but including more sophisticated tools. Data base analyses and
reconstruction of air parcel trajectories is but an example of immediate applicability (Sancho et
aI., 1992). Expert system modelling, as well, is a field of growing interest due to the
availabillity of computational resources. This approach, which attempts to conjecture and to
explain possible causal relationships, needs the development of new computational tools. In a
not so far future this seems to be a most interesting and practical alternative to today's
physically based mathematical modelling techniques.
References
Adams E et al. (1993) Computational chaos may be due to a single local error, J. Comput.
Phys, 104.241-250.
Bindoff N, McDougal T (1994) Diagnosing climate change and ocean ventilation using
hydrographic data, J. Phys. Ocean., 24-6, 1137-1152.
Bjerknes V (1904) Das Probem der Wettervorhersage betrachtet vom Standpunkt der Mechanik
und der Physik, Met. Zeit., 21, 1-6.
Budyko M (1%9) The effects of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth, Tellus,
21,611-619.
Charney J (1955) The generation of ocean currents by the wind, J. Marine Res., 14,477-498.
Cheeseman P, Oldf ord R, eds. (1994) Selecting models from data (Artificial1ntelligence and
Statistics, N), Lecture Notes in Statistics, 89, Springer Verlag, Berlin.
Diaz J I, Lions J L, eds. (1993) Mathematics, climate and the environment, Masson, Paris.
Drijfhout S (1994) Heat transport by mesoscale eddies in an Oceanic Circulation Model, J.
Phys. Ocean., 24-2, 353-369.
ECMWRF (1988) Predictability in the medium and extended range. Proceedings of a
Workshop held in May 1988 at Reading, UK.
Feistel R (1993) Climate and Physics of Evolution, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, (to
appear).
Fraedrich K, Ziehmann-Schlumbohm C (1994) Predictability experiments with persistence
forecasts in a red-noise atmosphere, Q.J.R. Met. Soc.,120, 387-428.
Giorgi F (1995), These Proceedings.
Grassberger P (1986) Do climatic attractors exist?, Nature, 323, 609-612.