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Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society
22
SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY
Key Science Goal 1
Key Science Goal 1. Determine the origins of the Sun’s activity and predict the variations in the space
environment. The Sun and its variability drive space weather on a wide variety of timescales. Research
driven by this goal investigates the origin of this variability inside the Sun and how its influence penetrates to near-Earth space to interact with other, terrestrial drivers of change in Earth’s space environment.
BOX 1.2 ACCESS TO SPACE
NASA procures launch services primarily through the NASA Launch Services (NLS) contract. The latest
NLS contract, NLS II, was announced on September 16, 2010, and includes launch vehicle offerings from four
vendors. 1 This contract was subsequently amended in 2012 through its “on-ramp” provision to add SpaceX’s
Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences’ Antares launch vehicles. 2,3 Prior to this, NASA added the United Launch Services’
Delta II launch vehicle—long a workhorse for launching NASA science missions—back to its NLS II contract.
However, that contract modification was limited to a maximum of five Delta II purchases, as opposed to the
indefinite procurement nature of the other contracts. 4 Therefore, the Delta II is being phased out once again
through attrition. Of the launch vehicles available through NLS II, four are in current production (the Pegasus,
Taurus, Falcon 9, and Atlas V). The Atlas V and Falcon 9 meet or exceed Delta II-class capability, but prices for the
Atlas V have increased dramatically. Pricing for the Falcon 9—though currently less costly—remains uncertain
for the time being. Furthermore, Orbital Sciences’ Taurus launch vehicle failed in three of its last four launch
attempts (the 2001 QuikTOMS, 2009 Orbiting Carbon Observatory, and 2011 Glory missions—all NASA Earth
science missions), resulting in a suspension of its use by NASA indefinitely. Currently, the Pegasus is the only
small-class launch vehicle manifested for future launches, but even then it is currently slated to launch only one
mission in the near future: the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) mission in 2013. 5
The challenges facing the launch vehicle industry that have played out over the past decade or more
have also resulted in a lower launch cadence for NASA science missions. Decreasing launch rates exacerbate
a tendency for missions in development to grow in size and complexity as longer development times, higher
overall mission costs, and fewer overall missions increase community expectations for the few missions that do
make it to space. This situation creates a feedback loop, with increasing costs driving increasing expectations
and decreasing risk tolerance, which can further increase costs.
Although increased competition is projected for higher-performance launch vehicles, plans to develop
alternative small-class launch vehicles appear less firm. SpaceX has ceased development of its Falcon 1/1e
offerings in favor of its Falcon 9. 6 The publicly available launch manifest shows just one Falcon 1e launch in
2014, compared with 37 Falcon 9/F9 Dragon/Falcon heavy launches through 2017. 7
The development of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences’ Antares launch vehicles has garnered a great
deal of attention in the Earth and space sciences community, especially since both meet or exceed Delta II
capabilities. However, neither has the long historical record of the Delta II for the simple fact that there have
not been many launches of the Falcon 9 and the first launch of Antares is not scheduled until 2013. The Falcon
9 was selected as the launch vehicle for the Jason-3 mission to be launched in 2014 for a price of approximately
$82 million. 8 Nevertheless, its successes to date have been few in number and limited to the delivery of cargo
to the International Space Station (in May and October 2012 and March 2013). The Falcon 9 has not yet placed
a robotic spacecraft in Earth orbit, although it did successfully place its Dragon cargo capsule in orbit for a few
hours before deorbiting it in a controlled reentry. While encouraged by these early achievements, the space
sciences community can only be cautiously optimistic until new launch service providers have a more exten-
Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society
22
SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY
Key Science Goal 1
Key Science Goal 1. Determine the origins of the Sun’s activity and predict the variations in the space
environment. The Sun and its variability drive space weather on a wide variety of timescales. Research
driven by this goal investigates the origin of this variability inside the Sun and how its influence penetrates to near-Earth space to interact with other, terrestrial drivers of change in Earth’s space environment.
BOX 1.2 ACCESS TO SPACE
NASA procures launch services primarily through the NASA Launch Services (NLS) contract. The latest
NLS contract, NLS II, was announced on September 16, 2010, and includes launch vehicle offerings from four
vendors. 1 This contract was subsequently amended in 2012 through its “on-ramp” provision to add SpaceX’s
Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences’ Antares launch vehicles. 2,3 Prior to this, NASA added the United Launch Services’
Delta II launch vehicle—long a workhorse for launching NASA science missions—back to its NLS II contract.
However, that contract modification was limited to a maximum of five Delta II purchases, as opposed to the
indefinite procurement nature of the other contracts. 4 Therefore, the Delta II is being phased out once again
through attrition. Of the launch vehicles available through NLS II, four are in current production (the Pegasus,
Taurus, Falcon 9, and Atlas V). The Atlas V and Falcon 9 meet or exceed Delta II-class capability, but prices for the
Atlas V have increased dramatically. Pricing for the Falcon 9—though currently less costly—remains uncertain
for the time being. Furthermore, Orbital Sciences’ Taurus launch vehicle failed in three of its last four launch
attempts (the 2001 QuikTOMS, 2009 Orbiting Carbon Observatory, and 2011 Glory missions—all NASA Earth
science missions), resulting in a suspension of its use by NASA indefinitely. Currently, the Pegasus is the only
small-class launch vehicle manifested for future launches, but even then it is currently slated to launch only one
mission in the near future: the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) mission in 2013. 5
The challenges facing the launch vehicle industry that have played out over the past decade or more
have also resulted in a lower launch cadence for NASA science missions. Decreasing launch rates exacerbate
a tendency for missions in development to grow in size and complexity as longer development times, higher
overall mission costs, and fewer overall missions increase community expectations for the few missions that do
make it to space. This situation creates a feedback loop, with increasing costs driving increasing expectations
and decreasing risk tolerance, which can further increase costs.
Although increased competition is projected for higher-performance launch vehicles, plans to develop
alternative small-class launch vehicles appear less firm. SpaceX has ceased development of its Falcon 1/1e
offerings in favor of its Falcon 9. 6 The publicly available launch manifest shows just one Falcon 1e launch in
2014, compared with 37 Falcon 9/F9 Dragon/Falcon heavy launches through 2017. 7
The development of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences’ Antares launch vehicles has garnered a great
deal of attention in the Earth and space sciences community, especially since both meet or exceed Delta II
capabilities. However, neither has the long historical record of the Delta II for the simple fact that there have
not been many launches of the Falcon 9 and the first launch of Antares is not scheduled until 2013. The Falcon
9 was selected as the launch vehicle for the Jason-3 mission to be launched in 2014 for a price of approximately
$82 million. 8 Nevertheless, its successes to date have been few in number and limited to the delivery of cargo
to the International Space Station (in May and October 2012 and March 2013). The Falcon 9 has not yet placed
a robotic spacecraft in Earth orbit, although it did successfully place its Dragon cargo capsule in orbit for a few
hours before deorbiting it in a controlled reentry. While encouraged by these early achievements, the space
sciences community can only be cautiously optimistic until new launch service providers have a more exten-