Population Viability Analysis
327
Lesson: Recognize that your model does not predict the future; it only projects what might happen if the system doesn’t change (which is unlikely).
Before you use the estimates of persistence from any population viability
analysis, compare the approach used to obtain the estimate with the necessary
components discussed here. If you discover omissions and errors in the approach used to obtain the estimate, recognize the worth (or lack thereof ) of the
estimate of persistence. Although the estimates of persistence obtained from a
PVA may have little value, the process of formulating a model and identifying
missing information (i.e., parameters that are poorly estimated) may still have
value in developing measures to conserve the species in question.
Literature Cited
Allee, W. C. 1931. Animal aggregations. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Armbruster, P. and R. Lande. 1993. A population viability analysis for African elephant
(Loxodonta africana): How big should reserves be? Conservation Biology 7: 602–610.
Bartmann, R. M., G. C. White, and L. H. Carpenter. 1992. Compensatory mortality in a
Colorado mule deer population. Wildlife Monographs 121: 1–39.
Beddington, J. R. 1974. Age distribution and the stability of simple discrete time populations models. Journal of Theoretical Biology 47: 65–74.
Beissinger, S. R. 1995. Modeling extinction in periodic environments: Everglades water levels and Snail Kite population viability. Ecological Applications 5: 618–631.
Bennington, C. C. and W. V. Thayne. 1994. Use and misuse of mixed model analysis of
variance in ecological studies. Ecology 75: 717–722.
Berger, J. 1990. Persistence of different-sized populations: An empirical assessment of rapid
extinctions in bighorn sheep. Conservation Biology 4: 91–98.
Beverton, R. J. H. and S. J. Holt. 1957. On the dynamics of exploited fish populations.
Great Britain Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Fishery Investigations (Series 2)
19: 5–533.
Boyce, M. S. 1992. Population viability analysis. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics
23: 481–506.
Burgman, M. A., S. Ferson, and H. R. Akçakaya. 1993. Risk assessment in conservation biology. London: Chapman & Hall.
Burnham, K. P., D. R. Anderson, and G. C. White. 1996. Meta-analysis of vital rates of the
northern spotted owl. Studies in Avian Biology 17: 92–101.
Burnham, K. P., D. R. Anderson, G. C. White, C. Brownie, and K. H. Pollock. 1987.
Design and analysis experiments for fish survival experiments based on capture–recapture. American Fisheries Society Monograph 5: 260–278.
Caswell, H. 1989. Matrix population models. Sunderland, Mass.: Sinauer.
Caughley, G. 1994. Directions in conservation biology. Journal of Animal Ecology 63:
215–244.
327
Lesson: Recognize that your model does not predict the future; it only projects what might happen if the system doesn’t change (which is unlikely).
Before you use the estimates of persistence from any population viability
analysis, compare the approach used to obtain the estimate with the necessary
components discussed here. If you discover omissions and errors in the approach used to obtain the estimate, recognize the worth (or lack thereof ) of the
estimate of persistence. Although the estimates of persistence obtained from a
PVA may have little value, the process of formulating a model and identifying
missing information (i.e., parameters that are poorly estimated) may still have
value in developing measures to conserve the species in question.
Literature Cited
Allee, W. C. 1931. Animal aggregations. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Armbruster, P. and R. Lande. 1993. A population viability analysis for African elephant
(Loxodonta africana): How big should reserves be? Conservation Biology 7: 602–610.
Bartmann, R. M., G. C. White, and L. H. Carpenter. 1992. Compensatory mortality in a
Colorado mule deer population. Wildlife Monographs 121: 1–39.
Beddington, J. R. 1974. Age distribution and the stability of simple discrete time populations models. Journal of Theoretical Biology 47: 65–74.
Beissinger, S. R. 1995. Modeling extinction in periodic environments: Everglades water levels and Snail Kite population viability. Ecological Applications 5: 618–631.
Bennington, C. C. and W. V. Thayne. 1994. Use and misuse of mixed model analysis of
variance in ecological studies. Ecology 75: 717–722.
Berger, J. 1990. Persistence of different-sized populations: An empirical assessment of rapid
extinctions in bighorn sheep. Conservation Biology 4: 91–98.
Beverton, R. J. H. and S. J. Holt. 1957. On the dynamics of exploited fish populations.
Great Britain Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Fishery Investigations (Series 2)
19: 5–533.
Boyce, M. S. 1992. Population viability analysis. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics
23: 481–506.
Burgman, M. A., S. Ferson, and H. R. Akçakaya. 1993. Risk assessment in conservation biology. London: Chapman & Hall.
Burnham, K. P., D. R. Anderson, and G. C. White. 1996. Meta-analysis of vital rates of the
northern spotted owl. Studies in Avian Biology 17: 92–101.
Burnham, K. P., D. R. Anderson, G. C. White, C. Brownie, and K. H. Pollock. 1987.
Design and analysis experiments for fish survival experiments based on capture–recapture. American Fisheries Society Monograph 5: 260–278.
Caswell, H. 1989. Matrix population models. Sunderland, Mass.: Sinauer.
Caughley, G. 1994. Directions in conservation biology. Journal of Animal Ecology 63:
215–244.