103
Our second core position is that a MWEP of this kind is shaped by a combination
of forces for both change and obduracy. On the one hand, large technical systems,
such as irrigation networks, are renowned for their path dependency (Pierson 2000 ;
Melosi 2005 ; Sehring 2009 ). Not only their physical structures, with their high sunk
costs and material embeddedness, limit future options for adaptation; also the institutional arrangements developed over time to manage them reveal typically a high
degree of persistence. On the other hand, large technical systems can and do change,
sometimes quite dramatically, for instance in response to system failure, shifting
political preferences or the emergence of viable alternatives (Summerton 1994 ).
What this means for the MWEP in the Fergana Valley is that we need to identify the
path dependencies (technical, environmental, organisational, economic, etc.) working to sustain the irrigation system as it is, but also the forces at play which are
pushing for change, whether radical or incremental. For, as a historical perspective
on the MWEP reveals, Fergana Valley’s irrigation system may have been in many
ways path dependent, but it was never static, adapting constantly to shifts in political regime, economic strategy, environmental limitations and geopolitical disputes.
These shifts became more sudden and disruptive with the collapse of the Soviet
Union and emergence of independent Central Asian states out of the former socialist republics. Here, though, we need to be wary of over-interpreting the signifi cance
of this single act of nation-building for subsequent water and agricultural policy.
The sudden switch of political regime in 1991 is deceptively suggestive of an abrupt
system transformation reaching down into all walks of life. In reality, the radical
transformation of some dimensions of society was accompanied by the strong path
dependence of others. The prior confi guration of technical, economic, organisational and social components of Fergana Valley’s irrigation system was certainly
destabilised after 1991, but not discarded. What we have been witnessing ever since
is the continuous process of reordering this relationship. This process is not happening automatically, following some hidden hand of economic rationality, but in a
non-linear, unpredictable and context-dependent way in response to shifting conditions and human agency. The multiple stakeholders involved – from senior water
offi cials in central government agencies to household farmers living off secondary
crops – are each trying to cope with this combination of transformation and path
dependency in their own ways to advance their own interests. Given the stakes
involved, this process is highly contested.
In the remainder of this section, we outline the principal dimensions of transformation and path dependency for fi rst the agriculture sector and then the water sector, highlighting their interdependency. We conclude by setting the stage for the
subsequent detailed analyses of selected arenas critical to the development of
Fergana Valley’s irrigation system.
8 Between Multiple Transformations and Systemic Path Dependencies
Our second core position is that a MWEP of this kind is shaped by a combination
of forces for both change and obduracy. On the one hand, large technical systems,
such as irrigation networks, are renowned for their path dependency (Pierson 2000 ;
Melosi 2005 ; Sehring 2009 ). Not only their physical structures, with their high sunk
costs and material embeddedness, limit future options for adaptation; also the institutional arrangements developed over time to manage them reveal typically a high
degree of persistence. On the other hand, large technical systems can and do change,
sometimes quite dramatically, for instance in response to system failure, shifting
political preferences or the emergence of viable alternatives (Summerton 1994 ).
What this means for the MWEP in the Fergana Valley is that we need to identify the
path dependencies (technical, environmental, organisational, economic, etc.) working to sustain the irrigation system as it is, but also the forces at play which are
pushing for change, whether radical or incremental. For, as a historical perspective
on the MWEP reveals, Fergana Valley’s irrigation system may have been in many
ways path dependent, but it was never static, adapting constantly to shifts in political regime, economic strategy, environmental limitations and geopolitical disputes.
These shifts became more sudden and disruptive with the collapse of the Soviet
Union and emergence of independent Central Asian states out of the former socialist republics. Here, though, we need to be wary of over-interpreting the signifi cance
of this single act of nation-building for subsequent water and agricultural policy.
The sudden switch of political regime in 1991 is deceptively suggestive of an abrupt
system transformation reaching down into all walks of life. In reality, the radical
transformation of some dimensions of society was accompanied by the strong path
dependence of others. The prior confi guration of technical, economic, organisational and social components of Fergana Valley’s irrigation system was certainly
destabilised after 1991, but not discarded. What we have been witnessing ever since
is the continuous process of reordering this relationship. This process is not happening automatically, following some hidden hand of economic rationality, but in a
non-linear, unpredictable and context-dependent way in response to shifting conditions and human agency. The multiple stakeholders involved – from senior water
offi cials in central government agencies to household farmers living off secondary
crops – are each trying to cope with this combination of transformation and path
dependency in their own ways to advance their own interests. Given the stakes
involved, this process is highly contested.
In the remainder of this section, we outline the principal dimensions of transformation and path dependency for fi rst the agriculture sector and then the water sector, highlighting their interdependency. We conclude by setting the stage for the
subsequent detailed analyses of selected arenas critical to the development of
Fergana Valley’s irrigation system.
8 Between Multiple Transformations and Systemic Path Dependencies