(d) Research and development of nuclear technologies for reactor decommissioning,
safety technology, back-end, etc., must be promoted intensively through international cooperation.
Keywords Accelerator-driven system • Decommissioning • Final disposal
• Nuclear back-end • Nuclear energy • Nuclear transmutation
23.1 Demand for Primary Energy and Electricity
Is Increasing Year by Year
Figure 23.1 shows a prediction of the world population together with its past
history. This figure shows that the world population had already reached 7 billion
in 2011 and will be 9.2 billion in 2050. Another prediction indicates that the
population of the world would be 11 billion by the end of this century.
It is not easy to predict the future demand for primary energy. Let me estimate it
taking an extremely naive way. Figure 23.2 shows how much primary energy per
capital is consumed annually in each country in terms of tons of oil equivalent. In
2009, the average of consumption of primary energy was 1.8 t/year and the world
population was 7 billion. It is a reasonable assumption that everybody in the world
hopes to enjoy the American life using 7 t/year, or at least the average of OECD
countries by using 4 t/year. Let us assume that in the near future the average will
become 4 t/year and the world population will be 10 billion in 2100. Then, simple
arithmetic tells us that the total demand for primary energy will be 3.2 times
[¼(10 Â 4)/(7 Â 1.8)] more than the present consumption.
More realistically, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted the future
demand for primary energy. The demand in countries other than OECD in 2035 will
be 1.8 times more than in 2010. The demand for primary energy in the world in
2035 will be 1.35 times more than in 2010. We should be careful because this
increase of 35 % will occur only 25 years from now. If this increase continues
linearly for the next 100 years, we find a 140 % increase, that is, altogether 2.4 times
more than the present consumption. According to IEA, the demand for electricity in
the world in 2035 will be 1.73 times more than in 2011, which is an increase 2 times
as fast as that for primary energy.
23.2 Global Warming Is Becoming a More
Serious Problem
To prepare for further increase of the demand for primary energy and to stop global
warming by reducing CO 2 emissions into the air, we need to develop renewable
energy as well as nuclear energy.
272
A. Arima
safety technology, back-end, etc., must be promoted intensively through international cooperation.
Keywords Accelerator-driven system • Decommissioning • Final disposal
• Nuclear back-end • Nuclear energy • Nuclear transmutation
23.1 Demand for Primary Energy and Electricity
Is Increasing Year by Year
Figure 23.1 shows a prediction of the world population together with its past
history. This figure shows that the world population had already reached 7 billion
in 2011 and will be 9.2 billion in 2050. Another prediction indicates that the
population of the world would be 11 billion by the end of this century.
It is not easy to predict the future demand for primary energy. Let me estimate it
taking an extremely naive way. Figure 23.2 shows how much primary energy per
capital is consumed annually in each country in terms of tons of oil equivalent. In
2009, the average of consumption of primary energy was 1.8 t/year and the world
population was 7 billion. It is a reasonable assumption that everybody in the world
hopes to enjoy the American life using 7 t/year, or at least the average of OECD
countries by using 4 t/year. Let us assume that in the near future the average will
become 4 t/year and the world population will be 10 billion in 2100. Then, simple
arithmetic tells us that the total demand for primary energy will be 3.2 times
[¼(10 Â 4)/(7 Â 1.8)] more than the present consumption.
More realistically, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted the future
demand for primary energy. The demand in countries other than OECD in 2035 will
be 1.8 times more than in 2010. The demand for primary energy in the world in
2035 will be 1.35 times more than in 2010. We should be careful because this
increase of 35 % will occur only 25 years from now. If this increase continues
linearly for the next 100 years, we find a 140 % increase, that is, altogether 2.4 times
more than the present consumption. According to IEA, the demand for electricity in
the world in 2035 will be 1.73 times more than in 2011, which is an increase 2 times
as fast as that for primary energy.
23.2 Global Warming Is Becoming a More
Serious Problem
To prepare for further increase of the demand for primary energy and to stop global
warming by reducing CO 2 emissions into the air, we need to develop renewable
energy as well as nuclear energy.
272
A. Arima