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References
Ayala, F. J. (1996). The candle in the darkness. Science, 273, 442–443.
Bellard, C., Bertelsmeier, C., Leadley, P., Thuiller, W., & Courchamp, F. (2012). Impacts of
climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecology Letters, 15, 365–377.
Biesbroek, G. R., Swart, R. J., & van der Knaap, W. G. M. (2009). The mitigation-adaptation
dichotomy and the role of spatial planning. Habitat International, 33(3), 230–237.
Brown, C., & Wilby, R. L. (2012). An alternate approach to assessing climate risks. EOS, 92(41),
401–402.
Bugmann, H. K. M. (2003). Predicting the ecosystem effects of climate change. In C. D. Canham,
J. J. Cole, & W. K. Lauenroth (Eds.), Models in ecosystem science (pp. 385–413). Princeton:
Princeton University Press.
Christensen, J. H., & Christensen, O. B. (2010). A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections
of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Copenhagen: Danish Meteorological
Institute.
Dawson, T. P., Jackson, S. T., House, J. I., Prentice, I. C., & Mace, G. M. (2011). Beyond
predictions: Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science, 332, 53–58.
Fordham, D. A., Akcakaya, H. R., Araujo, M., Elith, J., Keith, D. A., Pearson, R., Auld, T. D.,
Mellin, C., Morgan, J. W., Regan, T. J., Tozer, M., Watts, M. J., White, M., Brendan, A. W.,
Yates, C., & Brook, B. W. (2012). Plant extinction risk under climate change: Are forecast
range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming? Global Change
Biology, 18, 1357–1371.
Gleckler, P. J., Taylor, K. E., & Doutriaux, C. (2008). Performance metrics for climate models.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D06104.
Godet, M. (2000). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls. Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, 65, 3–22.
Hakonson, L. (2003). Propagation and analysis of uncertainty in ecosystem models. In C. D.
Canham, J. J. Cole, & W. K. Lauenroth (Eds.), Models in ecosystem science (pp. 139–167).
Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Hansen, L., & Hoffmann, J. (2011). Climate savvy – Adapting conservation and resource
management to a changing world. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Harris, G., Bigelow, S., Cole, J., Cyr, H., Janus, L., Kinzig, A., Kitchell, J., Likens, G., Reckhow, K.,
Scavia, D., Soto, D., Talbot, L., & Templer, P. (2003). The role of models in ecosystem
management. In C. D. Canham, J. J. Cole, & W. K. Lauenroth (Eds.), Models in ecosystem
science (pp. 299–307). Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V., & Hesse, C. (2008). Modelling wetland processes in regional
applications. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53, 1001–1012.
Heller, N. E., & Zavaleta, E. S. (2009). Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A
review of 22 years of recommendations. Biological Conservation, 142, 14–32.
Hickler, T., Vohland, K., Miller, P., Smith, B., Costa, L., Feehan, J., Giesecke, T., Fronzek, S.,
Carter, T., Cramer, W., Kuehn, I., & Sykes, M. (2012). Climate-driven changes in European
potential natural vegetation in relation to the Natura 2000 protected area network. Global
Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 50–63.
Holsten, A., Vetter, T., Vohland, K., & Krysanova, V. (2009). Impact of climate change on soil
moisture dynamics in Brandenburg with a focus on nature conservation areas. Ecological
Modelling, 220, 2076–2087.
74
K. Vohland et al.
Noncommercial License, which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in
any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.
References
Ayala, F. J. (1996). The candle in the darkness. Science, 273, 442–443.
Bellard, C., Bertelsmeier, C., Leadley, P., Thuiller, W., & Courchamp, F. (2012). Impacts of
climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecology Letters, 15, 365–377.
Biesbroek, G. R., Swart, R. J., & van der Knaap, W. G. M. (2009). The mitigation-adaptation
dichotomy and the role of spatial planning. Habitat International, 33(3), 230–237.
Brown, C., & Wilby, R. L. (2012). An alternate approach to assessing climate risks. EOS, 92(41),
401–402.
Bugmann, H. K. M. (2003). Predicting the ecosystem effects of climate change. In C. D. Canham,
J. J. Cole, & W. K. Lauenroth (Eds.), Models in ecosystem science (pp. 385–413). Princeton:
Princeton University Press.
Christensen, J. H., & Christensen, O. B. (2010). A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections
of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Copenhagen: Danish Meteorological
Institute.
Dawson, T. P., Jackson, S. T., House, J. I., Prentice, I. C., & Mace, G. M. (2011). Beyond
predictions: Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science, 332, 53–58.
Fordham, D. A., Akcakaya, H. R., Araujo, M., Elith, J., Keith, D. A., Pearson, R., Auld, T. D.,
Mellin, C., Morgan, J. W., Regan, T. J., Tozer, M., Watts, M. J., White, M., Brendan, A. W.,
Yates, C., & Brook, B. W. (2012). Plant extinction risk under climate change: Are forecast
range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming? Global Change
Biology, 18, 1357–1371.
Gleckler, P. J., Taylor, K. E., & Doutriaux, C. (2008). Performance metrics for climate models.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D06104.
Godet, M. (2000). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls. Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, 65, 3–22.
Hakonson, L. (2003). Propagation and analysis of uncertainty in ecosystem models. In C. D.
Canham, J. J. Cole, & W. K. Lauenroth (Eds.), Models in ecosystem science (pp. 139–167).
Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Hansen, L., & Hoffmann, J. (2011). Climate savvy – Adapting conservation and resource
management to a changing world. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Harris, G., Bigelow, S., Cole, J., Cyr, H., Janus, L., Kinzig, A., Kitchell, J., Likens, G., Reckhow, K.,
Scavia, D., Soto, D., Talbot, L., & Templer, P. (2003). The role of models in ecosystem
management. In C. D. Canham, J. J. Cole, & W. K. Lauenroth (Eds.), Models in ecosystem
science (pp. 299–307). Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V., & Hesse, C. (2008). Modelling wetland processes in regional
applications. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53, 1001–1012.
Heller, N. E., & Zavaleta, E. S. (2009). Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A
review of 22 years of recommendations. Biological Conservation, 142, 14–32.
Hickler, T., Vohland, K., Miller, P., Smith, B., Costa, L., Feehan, J., Giesecke, T., Fronzek, S.,
Carter, T., Cramer, W., Kuehn, I., & Sykes, M. (2012). Climate-driven changes in European
potential natural vegetation in relation to the Natura 2000 protected area network. Global
Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 50–63.
Holsten, A., Vetter, T., Vohland, K., & Krysanova, V. (2009). Impact of climate change on soil
moisture dynamics in Brandenburg with a focus on nature conservation areas. Ecological
Modelling, 220, 2076–2087.
74
K. Vohland et al.