climate change effects have shown that stakeholder involvement should be considered at least (Pond et al. 2010):
1. when goals and objectives of modelling are discussed;
2. when alternatives are identified that need to be considered and
3. when results are assessed and discussed to derive consequences for management.
This general concept could also give guidance for the use of modelling in
conservation management.
5.4.1 The Use of Models for Scenarios
Peterson et al. (2003) have suggested different methods to handle uncertainty in
decision-making. To make decisions and plan for uncontrollable situations
characterised by high uncertainty, the use of scenarios is often suggested (Peterson
et al. 2003). Consequently, models in earth sciences are often used to simulate
scenario results (e.g. GCMs). Several authors have also suggested using scenario
approaches to handle uncertainty in conservation management and provide robust
adaptation strategies (e.g. Julius and West 2008).
Scenarios as such are meant to project potential alternative developments. They
should help managers identifying potential future situations and answer the question ‘What do we do if this event, trend, or change happens?’ Hence, scenarios are
not meant to represent the most likely or even preferred development (Stra ¨ter
1988). They should prepare managers for a multitude of future situations. In most
cases rare and unlikely extreme scenarios can help foster preparation for the
unexpected better than mainstream scenarios or business-as-usual projections.
In the context of scenario work models can be used to project system behaviour
in response to different developments (e.g. increase or decrease of annual precipitation). Identifying relevant developments and transferring them to projections is
of high importance for the process. A good scenario needs to be “carefully
researched, full of relevant detail, oriented towards real-life decisions, and designed
(one hopes) to bring forward surprises and unexpected leaps of understanding”
(Schwartz 1992: XIIV).
Godet (2000) has suggested five criteria for a good scenario:
• It needs to be oriented to the problem at hand.
• It needs to be relevant for the questions of decision-makers.
• It needs to be coherent in itself.
• It needs to build on plausible assumptions.
• It needs to be transparent to the users.
Scenario development is regarded as supporting decision-making in situations
with high uncertainty. Nevertheless, scenarios rarely provide sufficient decision
support in complex situations. Decision makers are trained neither to analyse the
different outcomes of climate impact modelling nor to develop management
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K. Vohland et al.
1. when goals and objectives of modelling are discussed;
2. when alternatives are identified that need to be considered and
3. when results are assessed and discussed to derive consequences for management.
This general concept could also give guidance for the use of modelling in
conservation management.
5.4.1 The Use of Models for Scenarios
Peterson et al. (2003) have suggested different methods to handle uncertainty in
decision-making. To make decisions and plan for uncontrollable situations
characterised by high uncertainty, the use of scenarios is often suggested (Peterson
et al. 2003). Consequently, models in earth sciences are often used to simulate
scenario results (e.g. GCMs). Several authors have also suggested using scenario
approaches to handle uncertainty in conservation management and provide robust
adaptation strategies (e.g. Julius and West 2008).
Scenarios as such are meant to project potential alternative developments. They
should help managers identifying potential future situations and answer the question ‘What do we do if this event, trend, or change happens?’ Hence, scenarios are
not meant to represent the most likely or even preferred development (Stra ¨ter
1988). They should prepare managers for a multitude of future situations. In most
cases rare and unlikely extreme scenarios can help foster preparation for the
unexpected better than mainstream scenarios or business-as-usual projections.
In the context of scenario work models can be used to project system behaviour
in response to different developments (e.g. increase or decrease of annual precipitation). Identifying relevant developments and transferring them to projections is
of high importance for the process. A good scenario needs to be “carefully
researched, full of relevant detail, oriented towards real-life decisions, and designed
(one hopes) to bring forward surprises and unexpected leaps of understanding”
(Schwartz 1992: XIIV).
Godet (2000) has suggested five criteria for a good scenario:
• It needs to be oriented to the problem at hand.
• It needs to be relevant for the questions of decision-makers.
• It needs to be coherent in itself.
• It needs to build on plausible assumptions.
• It needs to be transparent to the users.
Scenario development is regarded as supporting decision-making in situations
with high uncertainty. Nevertheless, scenarios rarely provide sufficient decision
support in complex situations. Decision makers are trained neither to analyse the
different outcomes of climate impact modelling nor to develop management
72
K. Vohland et al.