modelling and the integration of stakeholders and decision-makers. Relevance,
legitimacy, and transparency are considered key aspects for the acceptance and
implementation of scientific results (Meinke et al. 2006). Before modelling efforts
are started, existing knowledge should be examined to determine whether it is
sufficient to support decisions and how the existing information can be translated to
the relevant decision-making context.
Modelling efforts use a lot of valuable resources for data acquisition, processing,
model development, calibration, and validation. Usually these resources can be
acquired in relation to research projects, but the limitation of resources must be
considered if modelling approaches and procedures are transferred to a permanent
task like conservation management. In the field of conservation management
resources, whether manpower or budget, are chronically scarce and their use must
yield the best possible output. Consequently, it is crucial to move modelling work
beyond pure prediction (Dawson et al. 2011) and strengthen its integration in risk
assessment, protocols of screening and monitoring, and integrated management in
protected areas (Bellard et al. 2012). If modelling is to be integrated in management
it must be based on an evaluation of the information need in protected areas. An
assessment of its use in the management process must be done in order to guarantee
maximum usability. The discussion of modelling goals and expected results will
also guarantee the relevance and legitimacy of modelling endeavours. There is no
doubt that modelling can provide various benefits for conservation management;
however, the objectives of nature conservation need to be considered in modelling
design, development, and presentation of results. Modelling for conservation management can be useful to:
• Structure the discussion about problems at hand and help develop hypotheses
on consequences.
• Identify driving forces and hot spots where action is needed.
• Provide efficient and effective indicators to identify and monitor changes.
• Identify critical changes and thresholds to trigger action.
• Illustrate consequences of management options.
5.4 Developments for the Future
Understanding the interrelation between management measures and the impact of
climate change is an important task for modelling in conservation management.
This should allow the testing of hypotheses and the identification of alternatives in
management. As a result, modelling that can be effectively used in the management
of protected areas should take management options into account and provide
possibility to project different future developments with regard to conservation
strategies.
Model development needs to be done in cooperation with local management and
stakeholders to guarantee transparency of models and their results. One possibility
is a formalised co-production of knowledge. Experiences from visualisations of
5 Climate Change Impact Modelling Cascade – Benefits and Limitations. . .
71
legitimacy, and transparency are considered key aspects for the acceptance and
implementation of scientific results (Meinke et al. 2006). Before modelling efforts
are started, existing knowledge should be examined to determine whether it is
sufficient to support decisions and how the existing information can be translated to
the relevant decision-making context.
Modelling efforts use a lot of valuable resources for data acquisition, processing,
model development, calibration, and validation. Usually these resources can be
acquired in relation to research projects, but the limitation of resources must be
considered if modelling approaches and procedures are transferred to a permanent
task like conservation management. In the field of conservation management
resources, whether manpower or budget, are chronically scarce and their use must
yield the best possible output. Consequently, it is crucial to move modelling work
beyond pure prediction (Dawson et al. 2011) and strengthen its integration in risk
assessment, protocols of screening and monitoring, and integrated management in
protected areas (Bellard et al. 2012). If modelling is to be integrated in management
it must be based on an evaluation of the information need in protected areas. An
assessment of its use in the management process must be done in order to guarantee
maximum usability. The discussion of modelling goals and expected results will
also guarantee the relevance and legitimacy of modelling endeavours. There is no
doubt that modelling can provide various benefits for conservation management;
however, the objectives of nature conservation need to be considered in modelling
design, development, and presentation of results. Modelling for conservation management can be useful to:
• Structure the discussion about problems at hand and help develop hypotheses
on consequences.
• Identify driving forces and hot spots where action is needed.
• Provide efficient and effective indicators to identify and monitor changes.
• Identify critical changes and thresholds to trigger action.
• Illustrate consequences of management options.
5.4 Developments for the Future
Understanding the interrelation between management measures and the impact of
climate change is an important task for modelling in conservation management.
This should allow the testing of hypotheses and the identification of alternatives in
management. As a result, modelling that can be effectively used in the management
of protected areas should take management options into account and provide
possibility to project different future developments with regard to conservation
strategies.
Model development needs to be done in cooperation with local management and
stakeholders to guarantee transparency of models and their results. One possibility
is a formalised co-production of knowledge. Experiences from visualisations of
5 Climate Change Impact Modelling Cascade – Benefits and Limitations. . .
71