A series of evaluations on the ecological spectrum of sub-alpine and alpine
habitats of Bucegi mountains, made within the HABIT-CHANGE project, support
the fact that they show significant vulnerability (related to 50–70 % of the species)
with regards to projected temperature and humidity changes. If we add the fact that
alpine plants may only be able to migrate horizontally (and this is by no means a
certainty) we can conclude that alpine habitats are also very vulnerable. In this
respect some studies addressed to alpine grasslands, underline the acute vulnerability of many dominant grasses and rare species to warming and drought and
predict significant shifts in plant composition (Erschbamer et al. 2009).
Taking into account the inevitable prognosis of rising sea-levels, we can conclude
that halophyte and coastal habitats may be lost in the near future. Such habitat types
are more often near urban, industrial, or tourist areas, which diminish the chance even
more that they could avoid effects of sea-level rise by migrating into other areas. The
sustainability of coastal habitats will be especially problematic where there are
limited options for landward migration (Gilman et al. 2008; Strojan and Robic
2009). Coastal habitats and their species that are of community interest are at risk
in Europe and many of them have an unfavourable conservation status (EEA 2010).
Unfortunately, climate change effects will become noticeable everywhere and
the vegetation, the basis on which biodiversity is established, will react according to
the vital requirements of species it is composed of. This reaction to projected
climate change impacts will be at a slower or faster rate, but nonetheless vegetation
will react in a non-favourable direction.
In this respect some effects which also address Natura 2000 habitats were
already observed (Campbell et al. 2009) and are expected to increase: the shifts
in location of those ecosystems that can migrate (Salazar et al. 2007), changes in
species composition and richness (Moritz et al. 2008), the loss of plant species with
small ranges (Pompe et al. 2008) or strongly depending on special edaphic conditions (Colwell et al. 2008), the spread of invasive species (Rahel and Olden 2008),
or the opportunity for native species to become invasive (van der Wal et al. 2008).
Climate change is already affecting ecosystems and the species of Natura 2000
sites. The understanding and documentation of this ongoing process will become
increasingly important for the development of adaptation in the conservation sector.
4.5 Conclusions
The results of our analysis are not representative for all Natura 2000 habitats but
they give an indication on major impacts relevant for protected areas included in the
HABIT-CHANGE project located in Central Europe.
The information for approximately 50 % of the habitats listed in the Natura 2000
database enabled the identification of seven potential impact categories that are
determined by climate change and that these habitats are confronted with now and
in the future.
4 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Protected Habitats
57
habitats of Bucegi mountains, made within the HABIT-CHANGE project, support
the fact that they show significant vulnerability (related to 50–70 % of the species)
with regards to projected temperature and humidity changes. If we add the fact that
alpine plants may only be able to migrate horizontally (and this is by no means a
certainty) we can conclude that alpine habitats are also very vulnerable. In this
respect some studies addressed to alpine grasslands, underline the acute vulnerability of many dominant grasses and rare species to warming and drought and
predict significant shifts in plant composition (Erschbamer et al. 2009).
Taking into account the inevitable prognosis of rising sea-levels, we can conclude
that halophyte and coastal habitats may be lost in the near future. Such habitat types
are more often near urban, industrial, or tourist areas, which diminish the chance even
more that they could avoid effects of sea-level rise by migrating into other areas. The
sustainability of coastal habitats will be especially problematic where there are
limited options for landward migration (Gilman et al. 2008; Strojan and Robic
2009). Coastal habitats and their species that are of community interest are at risk
in Europe and many of them have an unfavourable conservation status (EEA 2010).
Unfortunately, climate change effects will become noticeable everywhere and
the vegetation, the basis on which biodiversity is established, will react according to
the vital requirements of species it is composed of. This reaction to projected
climate change impacts will be at a slower or faster rate, but nonetheless vegetation
will react in a non-favourable direction.
In this respect some effects which also address Natura 2000 habitats were
already observed (Campbell et al. 2009) and are expected to increase: the shifts
in location of those ecosystems that can migrate (Salazar et al. 2007), changes in
species composition and richness (Moritz et al. 2008), the loss of plant species with
small ranges (Pompe et al. 2008) or strongly depending on special edaphic conditions (Colwell et al. 2008), the spread of invasive species (Rahel and Olden 2008),
or the opportunity for native species to become invasive (van der Wal et al. 2008).
Climate change is already affecting ecosystems and the species of Natura 2000
sites. The understanding and documentation of this ongoing process will become
increasingly important for the development of adaptation in the conservation sector.
4.5 Conclusions
The results of our analysis are not representative for all Natura 2000 habitats but
they give an indication on major impacts relevant for protected areas included in the
HABIT-CHANGE project located in Central Europe.
The information for approximately 50 % of the habitats listed in the Natura 2000
database enabled the identification of seven potential impact categories that are
determined by climate change and that these habitats are confronted with now and
in the future.
4 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Protected Habitats
57