3.3.3 Water Resources Management Impacts on Streamflow
Besides climate change and land use change direct human interventions can affect
natural runoff processes. When analysing the effects of such changes a clear differentiation between the natural discharge affected by climate change and land use
change, and managed streamflow should be made. Therefore particularly in regions
with large anthropogenic water use or water management effects, e.g. reservoir
management or water transfers, natural runoff processes and the resulting natural
discharge should be distinguished from measured (and managed) streamflow. In the
project GLOWA-Elbe (Wechsung et al. 2011) an eco-hydrological model for the river
Elbe basin was developed to simulate the effects of climate change and land
use change on natural runoff. A water resources management model was used to
simulate the effects of water management on streamflow and water availability. In the
example presented in Fig. 3.4 climate change and land use change are considered in
the simulation of the (unmanaged) natural runoff using the eco-hydrological model
SWIM. From 100 realisations of future climate data, all assuming a temperature
increase of approximately 1.8
C by 2055, a corresponding number of realisations
of natural discharge are generated (Conradt et al. 2012). This natural discharge is an
important input for the water resources management model. Simulated in the water
resources management model (WBalMo®
1 Elbe) are all relevant water users with
their water demand and return flows, and the management of the water infrastructure,
i.e. reservoirs and water transfers.
Fig. 3.4 Natural discharge (model SWIM) and managed streamflow (model WBalMo) at gauge
Hrensko/Labe (Czech Republic) for the years 2010–2050 displayed as a 5-year average
(e.g. “2010” stands for multi-year average of 2008–2012)
1 WBalMo is a registered trademark of DHI-WASY Ltd.
38
J. Stagl et al.
Besides climate change and land use change direct human interventions can affect
natural runoff processes. When analysing the effects of such changes a clear differentiation between the natural discharge affected by climate change and land use
change, and managed streamflow should be made. Therefore particularly in regions
with large anthropogenic water use or water management effects, e.g. reservoir
management or water transfers, natural runoff processes and the resulting natural
discharge should be distinguished from measured (and managed) streamflow. In the
project GLOWA-Elbe (Wechsung et al. 2011) an eco-hydrological model for the river
Elbe basin was developed to simulate the effects of climate change and land
use change on natural runoff. A water resources management model was used to
simulate the effects of water management on streamflow and water availability. In the
example presented in Fig. 3.4 climate change and land use change are considered in
the simulation of the (unmanaged) natural runoff using the eco-hydrological model
SWIM. From 100 realisations of future climate data, all assuming a temperature
increase of approximately 1.8
C by 2055, a corresponding number of realisations
of natural discharge are generated (Conradt et al. 2012). This natural discharge is an
important input for the water resources management model. Simulated in the water
resources management model (WBalMo®
1 Elbe) are all relevant water users with
their water demand and return flows, and the management of the water infrastructure,
i.e. reservoirs and water transfers.
Fig. 3.4 Natural discharge (model SWIM) and managed streamflow (model WBalMo) at gauge
Hrensko/Labe (Czech Republic) for the years 2010–2050 displayed as a 5-year average
(e.g. “2010” stands for multi-year average of 2008–2012)
1 WBalMo is a registered trademark of DHI-WASY Ltd.
38
J. Stagl et al.