(Luterbacher et al. 2004). The coldest winter periods occurred during the late
sixteenth century, during the last decades of the seventeenth century, and at the
end of the nineteenth century (Jones et al. 2001; Luterbacher et al. 2004).
Since the middle of the nineteenth century the annual average temperatures of
the northern hemisphere have increased by 0.6
C (Jones et al. 2001). Winters have
warmed by nearly 0.8
C and summers by only 0.4
C in which the warming
has occurred in two phases from about 1920–1945 and from 1975 to 2001
(Jones et al. 1999). On a global scale the minimum temperatures have increased
more significantly than the maximum temperatures for the period of 1950–1993
(Jones et al. 1999). This leads to a decrease of the diurnal temperature range by
0.08
C per decade.
A statistical trend analysis of temperature and precipitation of more than 600 stations across Europe shows a “warming band” of mean annual temperatures which
extends from south-western to north-eastern Europe for the time period of
1951–2000 (Scho ¨nwiese and Janoschitz 2008). The seasonal examination of the
data indicates that the temperature trends of the winter months are higher and
clearer than the temperature trends of the summer months. Highest warming trends
were found in the Baltic region with about 3
C and in the western parts of Russia
and the Alps with about 2
C. For Eastern Europe (east of about 20
E) the summer
temperature trends show small negative values (moderate cooling) and for Central
Europe there are positive trends (warming).
The spatial precipitation pattern for Europe displays increasing annual trends for
parts of North Europe, no trends for Central and Eastern Europe, and a clear
negative trend for South Europe for the period of 1951–2000 (Scho ¨nwiese and
Janoschitz 2008). In summer, precipitation increases in most parts of Europe,
except areas east around 25
E and south around 60
N (East and Southeast Europe),
in which a precipitation decline was observed. In winter months, the precipitation
trends over Europe are divided into two parts. In the Mediterranean countries and in
some countries of Eastern Europe precipitation has declined and in other parts of
Europe precipitation has increased with observed maximum values of about 40 %.
2.4 Projected Climate Change in the Near
and Far Future in Europe
2.4.1 Temperature
In Central and Eastern Europe the mean annual temperature is projected to increase
between 1 and 3
C until the middle of the century and up to 5
C by the end of the
century (Giorgi et al. 2004; Ra ¨isa ¨nen et al. 2004; Rowell 2005; Christensen
et al. 2007; De ´que ´ et al. 2007; Kjellstro ¨m et al. 2007), if no policy measure is
taken (IPCC 2007). Figure 2.3 illustrates the projected change in temperature as a
result of a multi-model average for the middle of the twenty-first century.
24
I. Anders et al.
sixteenth century, during the last decades of the seventeenth century, and at the
end of the nineteenth century (Jones et al. 2001; Luterbacher et al. 2004).
Since the middle of the nineteenth century the annual average temperatures of
the northern hemisphere have increased by 0.6
C (Jones et al. 2001). Winters have
warmed by nearly 0.8
C and summers by only 0.4
C in which the warming
has occurred in two phases from about 1920–1945 and from 1975 to 2001
(Jones et al. 1999). On a global scale the minimum temperatures have increased
more significantly than the maximum temperatures for the period of 1950–1993
(Jones et al. 1999). This leads to a decrease of the diurnal temperature range by
0.08
C per decade.
A statistical trend analysis of temperature and precipitation of more than 600 stations across Europe shows a “warming band” of mean annual temperatures which
extends from south-western to north-eastern Europe for the time period of
1951–2000 (Scho ¨nwiese and Janoschitz 2008). The seasonal examination of the
data indicates that the temperature trends of the winter months are higher and
clearer than the temperature trends of the summer months. Highest warming trends
were found in the Baltic region with about 3
C and in the western parts of Russia
and the Alps with about 2
C. For Eastern Europe (east of about 20
E) the summer
temperature trends show small negative values (moderate cooling) and for Central
Europe there are positive trends (warming).
The spatial precipitation pattern for Europe displays increasing annual trends for
parts of North Europe, no trends for Central and Eastern Europe, and a clear
negative trend for South Europe for the period of 1951–2000 (Scho ¨nwiese and
Janoschitz 2008). In summer, precipitation increases in most parts of Europe,
except areas east around 25
E and south around 60
N (East and Southeast Europe),
in which a precipitation decline was observed. In winter months, the precipitation
trends over Europe are divided into two parts. In the Mediterranean countries and in
some countries of Eastern Europe precipitation has declined and in other parts of
Europe precipitation has increased with observed maximum values of about 40 %.
2.4 Projected Climate Change in the Near
and Far Future in Europe
2.4.1 Temperature
In Central and Eastern Europe the mean annual temperature is projected to increase
between 1 and 3
C until the middle of the century and up to 5
C by the end of the
century (Giorgi et al. 2004; Ra ¨isa ¨nen et al. 2004; Rowell 2005; Christensen
et al. 2007; De ´que ´ et al. 2007; Kjellstro ¨m et al. 2007), if no policy measure is
taken (IPCC 2007). Figure 2.3 illustrates the projected change in temperature as a
result of a multi-model average for the middle of the twenty-first century.
24
I. Anders et al.