concentrations to radiative forcing, the modelling of the climate response to a given
forcing, and the conversation of model response into inputs for impact studies
(Houghton et al. 2001).
Each step in the development of climate change scenarios leads to a range of
probable results followed by a plenitude of uncertainty. The challenge is to assess and
to quantify uncertainties about climate scenarios and their consideration in climate
change and impact studies. The use of a range of emissions scenarios to force a number
of different GCMs and to take into account the range of possible socio-economic
futures for the development of regional climate change scenarios is recommended.
2.3 Temperature and Precipitation Change
in the Past 50–150 Years
Because climate analyses are often carried out for specific regions or for specific
countries, the following section summarises past climate change information based
on given literature for each different region separately.
The climate of the twentieth century in Central and Eastern Europe is marked by
an overall temperature increase, although more pronounced in the Alps and their
surroundings than elsewhere in this region. Other climate elements, like precipitation have developed diversely with regional increases and decreases of smaller
distances. For the HISTALP area (GAR) covering the southern part of Central
Europe (4–19
E, 43–49
N, 0–3500 m asl) temperature increased significantly by
about 1.2
C during the twentieth century. This increase was similar in all of the
subregions (Auer et al. 2007). Warming at the high mountain observatories in the
Alps did not differentiate significantly from that in the lowlands. The respective
numbers for the seasons are 1.1
C for spring, 1.3
C for summer, 1.2
C for autumn
and 1.3
C for winter. The strongest warming occurred in the 1980s and 1990s.
Thus, focusing on a shorter time period of the last 30 years, a much more severe
warming can be found in the series. Together with the higher mean temperature
level, a number of extremes derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature are expected to have increased as well.
For the Austrian territory Nemec et al. (2012) found a widespread warming trend
in both maximum and minimum temperature meaning an increase of warm days
and warm nights. Cold days and nights, on the other hand, have been decreasing
during the past 40 years. Climate impacts are easy to detect in nature, shrinking
glaciers, elongated growing season lengths, thawing of permafrost, etc. Frost has
decreased, above all in the lowlands in spring and autumn. In the high mountains
the summer season is affected most by frost reduction (cf. Fig. 2.2).
For precipitation no general trend was detected for the HISTALP region, but
regional features have to be taken into account. An increase of about 9 % in the
north-western part matches a decrease of the same magnitude in the south-eastern
part. Some stations in the south of Austria recorded a reduction of up to 20 %. Extreme
2 Climate Change in Central and Eastern Europe
21
forcing, and the conversation of model response into inputs for impact studies
(Houghton et al. 2001).
Each step in the development of climate change scenarios leads to a range of
probable results followed by a plenitude of uncertainty. The challenge is to assess and
to quantify uncertainties about climate scenarios and their consideration in climate
change and impact studies. The use of a range of emissions scenarios to force a number
of different GCMs and to take into account the range of possible socio-economic
futures for the development of regional climate change scenarios is recommended.
2.3 Temperature and Precipitation Change
in the Past 50–150 Years
Because climate analyses are often carried out for specific regions or for specific
countries, the following section summarises past climate change information based
on given literature for each different region separately.
The climate of the twentieth century in Central and Eastern Europe is marked by
an overall temperature increase, although more pronounced in the Alps and their
surroundings than elsewhere in this region. Other climate elements, like precipitation have developed diversely with regional increases and decreases of smaller
distances. For the HISTALP area (GAR) covering the southern part of Central
Europe (4–19
E, 43–49
N, 0–3500 m asl) temperature increased significantly by
about 1.2
C during the twentieth century. This increase was similar in all of the
subregions (Auer et al. 2007). Warming at the high mountain observatories in the
Alps did not differentiate significantly from that in the lowlands. The respective
numbers for the seasons are 1.1
C for spring, 1.3
C for summer, 1.2
C for autumn
and 1.3
C for winter. The strongest warming occurred in the 1980s and 1990s.
Thus, focusing on a shorter time period of the last 30 years, a much more severe
warming can be found in the series. Together with the higher mean temperature
level, a number of extremes derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature are expected to have increased as well.
For the Austrian territory Nemec et al. (2012) found a widespread warming trend
in both maximum and minimum temperature meaning an increase of warm days
and warm nights. Cold days and nights, on the other hand, have been decreasing
during the past 40 years. Climate impacts are easy to detect in nature, shrinking
glaciers, elongated growing season lengths, thawing of permafrost, etc. Frost has
decreased, above all in the lowlands in spring and autumn. In the high mountains
the summer season is affected most by frost reduction (cf. Fig. 2.2).
For precipitation no general trend was detected for the HISTALP region, but
regional features have to be taken into account. An increase of about 9 % in the
north-western part matches a decrease of the same magnitude in the south-eastern
part. Some stations in the south of Austria recorded a reduction of up to 20 %. Extreme
2 Climate Change in Central and Eastern Europe
21