changes, but this information is also important as it provides a bandwidth of the
potential changes.
Based on climate scenarios it is possible to calculate the impacts on further
parameters of the natural balance, like water balance (see Chap. 3), flooding, soilmoisture, or species distribution. Modelling water balance is a key issue concerning
future habitat development since most habitats are affected by changing hydrological conditions (see Chap. 4). Yet incomplete knowledge on ecological responses
means that conservation management will inevitably experience surprising impacts
in the future and needs to prepare for unexpected effects.
The issue of uncertainty also arises in the case of parameter-related modelling,
since models are only simplifications of reality (see Chap. 5). Errors cannot be
avoided since a model output strongly relies on the understanding and reproduction
of real natural processes (Maslin and Austin 2012) and on the quality of its input
data. Thus, modelling results should be used with care in the decision-making
process (Millner 2012). On the other hand, models allow for an illustration of
potential future developments, especially when using different scenarios, and thus
support action and adaptation to impacts.
Impact assessment in HABIT-CHANGE followed the framework of IPCC
(2001), consisting of the sensitivity and the exposure which defined the potential
impacts (see Chap. 8). The aim was to apply a simple and transferable approach that
is understandable for conservation managers. The framework requires only a
minimum of local data and results in sensitivity maps and potential impact maps
per season. The approach does not incorporate adaptive capacity; however, it can be
a valuable assessment tool for climate-induced impacts on habitats. Identifying
sensitivity of species and habitats is a good way of producing relevant information
on the local level, especially when downscaled climate projections are not available. First of all, it supports the identification of habitats that are very susceptible to
climatic changes. Furthermore, it helps to focus measures and activities as well as
setting priorities. The sensitivity assessment allows for ‘what if’ scenarios. It can be
used to exemplify the potential direction of habitat dynamics for different temperature changes (e.g. 2
C).
Monitoring with all its facets is a crucial aspect of documenting and understanding
the effects of changes in the landscape, biodiversity or specific parameters caused by
human or natural impacts. A wide variety of appropriate methods for monitoring
already exist, but they often lack the capacity for continuous long-term application.
In HABIT-CHANGE different monitoring methods have been applied. The
objective was to provide indicators of potential climate change impacts (see
Chap. 6) by the application of in-situ or Earth observation (see Chap. 7) methods.
In-situ methods (like meteorological observations, soil moisture or water level
sensor measurements, monitoring animal and plant populations) were applied to
monitor specific aspects in the diverse investigation areas. Remote sensing
approaches require a highly site and context specific design to fit data, methods
and indicators and derive useful results. Short-term indicators can be used, e.g. to
monitor the percentage of natural tree types at Natura 2000 sites, and long-term
indicators can be utilised, for instance, to monitor the immigration of beech in a
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S. Rannow et al.
potential changes.
Based on climate scenarios it is possible to calculate the impacts on further
parameters of the natural balance, like water balance (see Chap. 3), flooding, soilmoisture, or species distribution. Modelling water balance is a key issue concerning
future habitat development since most habitats are affected by changing hydrological conditions (see Chap. 4). Yet incomplete knowledge on ecological responses
means that conservation management will inevitably experience surprising impacts
in the future and needs to prepare for unexpected effects.
The issue of uncertainty also arises in the case of parameter-related modelling,
since models are only simplifications of reality (see Chap. 5). Errors cannot be
avoided since a model output strongly relies on the understanding and reproduction
of real natural processes (Maslin and Austin 2012) and on the quality of its input
data. Thus, modelling results should be used with care in the decision-making
process (Millner 2012). On the other hand, models allow for an illustration of
potential future developments, especially when using different scenarios, and thus
support action and adaptation to impacts.
Impact assessment in HABIT-CHANGE followed the framework of IPCC
(2001), consisting of the sensitivity and the exposure which defined the potential
impacts (see Chap. 8). The aim was to apply a simple and transferable approach that
is understandable for conservation managers. The framework requires only a
minimum of local data and results in sensitivity maps and potential impact maps
per season. The approach does not incorporate adaptive capacity; however, it can be
a valuable assessment tool for climate-induced impacts on habitats. Identifying
sensitivity of species and habitats is a good way of producing relevant information
on the local level, especially when downscaled climate projections are not available. First of all, it supports the identification of habitats that are very susceptible to
climatic changes. Furthermore, it helps to focus measures and activities as well as
setting priorities. The sensitivity assessment allows for ‘what if’ scenarios. It can be
used to exemplify the potential direction of habitat dynamics for different temperature changes (e.g. 2
C).
Monitoring with all its facets is a crucial aspect of documenting and understanding
the effects of changes in the landscape, biodiversity or specific parameters caused by
human or natural impacts. A wide variety of appropriate methods for monitoring
already exist, but they often lack the capacity for continuous long-term application.
In HABIT-CHANGE different monitoring methods have been applied. The
objective was to provide indicators of potential climate change impacts (see
Chap. 6) by the application of in-situ or Earth observation (see Chap. 7) methods.
In-situ methods (like meteorological observations, soil moisture or water level
sensor measurements, monitoring animal and plant populations) were applied to
monitor specific aspects in the diverse investigation areas. Remote sensing
approaches require a highly site and context specific design to fit data, methods
and indicators and derive useful results. Short-term indicators can be used, e.g. to
monitor the percentage of natural tree types at Natura 2000 sites, and long-term
indicators can be utilised, for instance, to monitor the immigration of beech in a
294
S. Rannow et al.