16.3 Methods for Identifying Hotspots of Climate
Change Impacts – And How to Inform
and Engage Stakeholders
Study objectives were (i) to spatially identify hotspots of climate change impacts in
the study area, and (ii) to inform the BR administration and land owners about these
impacts and potential adaptation strategies. The study therefore focused on the
analysis of the climatic requirements of forest habitat types following the definitions of the EU Habitat Directive and the potential alteration of these habitat types.
Moreover, general recommendations for the establishment of near-natural forests in
the BR were developed to promote pro-active forest adaptation, which may also
positively influence certain habitat types by creating biotope networks.
16.3.1 Climate Change Impacts on Forest Habitats
and their Conservation Status According
to the EU Habitat Directive
Using the terminology of the international nomenclature for the evaluation of forest
habitat types (see Ssymank et al. 1998; European Commission 2003; Burkhardt
et al. 2004), climate change will modify habitat structure and species composition,
increase habitat impairments, and change the presence, frequency and abundance of
different forest development phases, of biotopes and over-mature trees and of
deadwood. These changes will introduce various levels of diversity depending on
the specific type of climatically induced changes:
• Climatically induced, large-scale disturbance (e.g., storm or forest fire).
• Climatically induced, selective small-scale failure of individual tree species,
forest structures or forest development phases (e.g., due to drought, frost or
species-specific pests).
• Climatically induced, gradual modification of site and environmental conditions
(e.g., modified climatic water balance or vegetation period length).
In the case of large-scale wind-induced disturbances, the degree of storm
exposure was estimated for the entire BR area by means of GIS analyses (ArcGIS
9.3. spatial analyst). Based on the digital elevation model of Thuringia (resolution
of 5 m), elevation, slope angle, slope direction and relative exposition compared to
the surrounding area were determined for 50 m grid cells. Grid cells that are not
protected from storms by higher topographical elements at distances of 500, 1.000,
1.500 or 2.000 m were assigned a particularly high degree of exposure in accordance with the Thuringian damage analysis conducted following the 2007 storm
‘Kyrill’ (Clasen et al. 2008). Regardless of protection from distant topographical
elements, forests located on the wind-facing south-westerly slopes featured at
minimum a high degree of exposure.
248
N. Frischbier et al.
Change Impacts – And How to Inform
and Engage Stakeholders
Study objectives were (i) to spatially identify hotspots of climate change impacts in
the study area, and (ii) to inform the BR administration and land owners about these
impacts and potential adaptation strategies. The study therefore focused on the
analysis of the climatic requirements of forest habitat types following the definitions of the EU Habitat Directive and the potential alteration of these habitat types.
Moreover, general recommendations for the establishment of near-natural forests in
the BR were developed to promote pro-active forest adaptation, which may also
positively influence certain habitat types by creating biotope networks.
16.3.1 Climate Change Impacts on Forest Habitats
and their Conservation Status According
to the EU Habitat Directive
Using the terminology of the international nomenclature for the evaluation of forest
habitat types (see Ssymank et al. 1998; European Commission 2003; Burkhardt
et al. 2004), climate change will modify habitat structure and species composition,
increase habitat impairments, and change the presence, frequency and abundance of
different forest development phases, of biotopes and over-mature trees and of
deadwood. These changes will introduce various levels of diversity depending on
the specific type of climatically induced changes:
• Climatically induced, large-scale disturbance (e.g., storm or forest fire).
• Climatically induced, selective small-scale failure of individual tree species,
forest structures or forest development phases (e.g., due to drought, frost or
species-specific pests).
• Climatically induced, gradual modification of site and environmental conditions
(e.g., modified climatic water balance or vegetation period length).
In the case of large-scale wind-induced disturbances, the degree of storm
exposure was estimated for the entire BR area by means of GIS analyses (ArcGIS
9.3. spatial analyst). Based on the digital elevation model of Thuringia (resolution
of 5 m), elevation, slope angle, slope direction and relative exposition compared to
the surrounding area were determined for 50 m grid cells. Grid cells that are not
protected from storms by higher topographical elements at distances of 500, 1.000,
1.500 or 2.000 m were assigned a particularly high degree of exposure in accordance with the Thuringian damage analysis conducted following the 2007 storm
‘Kyrill’ (Clasen et al. 2008). Regardless of protection from distant topographical
elements, forests located on the wind-facing south-westerly slopes featured at
minimum a high degree of exposure.
248
N. Frischbier et al.