prohibited agriculture and settlement. Compared to other biogeographical regions,
the adaptation potential of European forests is also limited in terms of genetic and
structural diversity, because the cultural landscape is characterised by low biodiversity, lack of spatial connectivity of biotopes and populations, and loss, genetic
depletion or specialisation of species, partly due to refuges during and remigration
following glaciation. The special situation of forests embedded in the European
cultural landscape therefore necessitates profound vulnerability analyses with
respect to the expected climatic changes and the subsequent development of
substantiated adaptation strategies.
Various approaches have been used to assess the manifold responses of ecosystems and habitats to environmental changes. A basic approach to vulnerability
assessment focuses on the climate envelope of a particular species (Box 1981). In
combination with relevant climatic and species distribution data, species distribution models (SDM) can be used to derive species absence and presence maps for
present and potential future climatic conditions, identifying potential distribution
shifts. For silver fir (Abies alba Mill.), currently a rare species in Central Europe,
Falk and Mellert (2011) present a risk evaluation based on different SDM’s. This
approach has also been used for vulnerability assessment of habitat-specific species
in Natura 2000 habitats (Harley 2011).
Following a different approach (for details see Chap. 8), Petermann et al. (2007)
classified the sensitivity of several habitat types in Germany with respect to
pressures (land use, eutrophication), regenerability, spatial distribution, invasion
of alien species, dependency on ground water and overflow as well as conservation
status. Different levels of sensitivity were expected for habitats with differing
biogeographical distribution, dependency on ground water or periodical flooding
as well as for habitats under climate change pressure. Azonal forest types such as
alluvial forests, bog woodlands and ravine forests were classified as particularly
sensitive. The most vulnerable forest type, however, is the montane to alpine
acidophilus Picea forest type (Vaccinio-Piceetea-FFH-type 9410, see Lindner
et al. 2008; Gartner et al. 2011), which is a major element of the Biosphere Reserve
(BR) Vessertal-Thuringian Forest and other mountain ranges in Europe.
16.2 Our Case Study – The Biosphere Reserve
Vessertal-Thuringian Forest (Germany)
The BR is dominated by the Thuringian Forest, a mountain range characterised by
deeply carved valleys. The main ridge features a maximum elevation of 978 m a.s.l.,
dropping off to approx. 450 m a.s.l. As a result of this morphology, the mainly
atlantic, moderately cool and moist central mountain climate is modified, resulting in
a large variety of local climatic conditions.
The landscape of the BR presents itself as a largely contiguous forest system,
with ~90 % forest cover and some small upland meadows in stream valleys and at
244
N. Frischbier et al.
the adaptation potential of European forests is also limited in terms of genetic and
structural diversity, because the cultural landscape is characterised by low biodiversity, lack of spatial connectivity of biotopes and populations, and loss, genetic
depletion or specialisation of species, partly due to refuges during and remigration
following glaciation. The special situation of forests embedded in the European
cultural landscape therefore necessitates profound vulnerability analyses with
respect to the expected climatic changes and the subsequent development of
substantiated adaptation strategies.
Various approaches have been used to assess the manifold responses of ecosystems and habitats to environmental changes. A basic approach to vulnerability
assessment focuses on the climate envelope of a particular species (Box 1981). In
combination with relevant climatic and species distribution data, species distribution models (SDM) can be used to derive species absence and presence maps for
present and potential future climatic conditions, identifying potential distribution
shifts. For silver fir (Abies alba Mill.), currently a rare species in Central Europe,
Falk and Mellert (2011) present a risk evaluation based on different SDM’s. This
approach has also been used for vulnerability assessment of habitat-specific species
in Natura 2000 habitats (Harley 2011).
Following a different approach (for details see Chap. 8), Petermann et al. (2007)
classified the sensitivity of several habitat types in Germany with respect to
pressures (land use, eutrophication), regenerability, spatial distribution, invasion
of alien species, dependency on ground water and overflow as well as conservation
status. Different levels of sensitivity were expected for habitats with differing
biogeographical distribution, dependency on ground water or periodical flooding
as well as for habitats under climate change pressure. Azonal forest types such as
alluvial forests, bog woodlands and ravine forests were classified as particularly
sensitive. The most vulnerable forest type, however, is the montane to alpine
acidophilus Picea forest type (Vaccinio-Piceetea-FFH-type 9410, see Lindner
et al. 2008; Gartner et al. 2011), which is a major element of the Biosphere Reserve
(BR) Vessertal-Thuringian Forest and other mountain ranges in Europe.
16.2 Our Case Study – The Biosphere Reserve
Vessertal-Thuringian Forest (Germany)
The BR is dominated by the Thuringian Forest, a mountain range characterised by
deeply carved valleys. The main ridge features a maximum elevation of 978 m a.s.l.,
dropping off to approx. 450 m a.s.l. As a result of this morphology, the mainly
atlantic, moderately cool and moist central mountain climate is modified, resulting in
a large variety of local climatic conditions.
The landscape of the BR presents itself as a largely contiguous forest system,
with ~90 % forest cover and some small upland meadows in stream valleys and at
244
N. Frischbier et al.