within the Biebrza Valley) is likely to evoke similar “restoration” processes that the
undertaken technical measures. Furthermore, the continuous monitoring of stakeholder’s consciousness and attitudes (indicated in the outermost ring in Fig. 14.5)
will allow the selection and application of the best strategies for communication in
order to sustain appropriate, climate-proof adaptive environmental management in
the Biebrza Valley.
14.5 Conclusions
With no regard to the uncertainty of the GCM-RCM-emission scenarios-based
climate change projections, the management of the BNP should implement
climate-adapted management strategies which consider the range of various prospective climate impact projections. Strategies should anticipate the potential
increase in summer flooding frequency, temporal and quantitative changes in spring
flooding as well as indirect, climate-induced pressures on ecosystems, herein
defined as the potential escalation of drainage in the valley and also as the
secondary succession of trees and shrubs in mire meadows.
Since following the reports of Kossowska-Cezak (1984) and Kossowska-Cezak
et al. (1991), the climate of the Biebrza Valley was not analysed in detail, it is
essential to revisit their results on the basis of observations over the last 20 years.
Such research would critically reveal the long-term changes in multiple elements of
the climate and could become a comprehensive baseline for the establishment of
climate change scenarios and their impacts on the ecosystems of the Biebrza Valley.
All the contemporary environmental management measures implemented so far
by the BNP and local stakeholders are likely to be affected by the observed/
prospective climate change.
The most negative prospective climate scenario for the Biebrza Valley in the
time horizon 2070–2100 assumes a significant increase in precipitation in summer
(which will result in an increased frequency of summer flooding), a decrease in
precipitation in autumn, winter and spring (which will induce a reduction in spring
flooding and underpin the hydrological stress on wetland vegetation at the start of
the growing season) and a general increase in the average air temperature (which
will induce an increase in potential evapotranspiration in the summer and reduction
of snow accumulation in the winter).
Climate change impacts to wetlands can be defined as direct (climate change
influences the environment: less rain – less flooding – habitats induced) and indirect
(climate change entails the reaction of managers and stakeholders, which consequently induce habitats: more rain – flooding mitigated by the drainage – declining
groundwater levels challenge the wetlands). Both levels of impacts should be
anticipated in climate-adapted environmental management.
Plant associations such as Caricion davallianae, Caricion nigrae, Alopecurion
pratensis and Molinion caeruleae, are suspected to be among the most sensitive to
negative impacts of climate change in the Biebrza Valley. While for certain habitats
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M. Grygoruk et al.
undertaken technical measures. Furthermore, the continuous monitoring of stakeholder’s consciousness and attitudes (indicated in the outermost ring in Fig. 14.5)
will allow the selection and application of the best strategies for communication in
order to sustain appropriate, climate-proof adaptive environmental management in
the Biebrza Valley.
14.5 Conclusions
With no regard to the uncertainty of the GCM-RCM-emission scenarios-based
climate change projections, the management of the BNP should implement
climate-adapted management strategies which consider the range of various prospective climate impact projections. Strategies should anticipate the potential
increase in summer flooding frequency, temporal and quantitative changes in spring
flooding as well as indirect, climate-induced pressures on ecosystems, herein
defined as the potential escalation of drainage in the valley and also as the
secondary succession of trees and shrubs in mire meadows.
Since following the reports of Kossowska-Cezak (1984) and Kossowska-Cezak
et al. (1991), the climate of the Biebrza Valley was not analysed in detail, it is
essential to revisit their results on the basis of observations over the last 20 years.
Such research would critically reveal the long-term changes in multiple elements of
the climate and could become a comprehensive baseline for the establishment of
climate change scenarios and their impacts on the ecosystems of the Biebrza Valley.
All the contemporary environmental management measures implemented so far
by the BNP and local stakeholders are likely to be affected by the observed/
prospective climate change.
The most negative prospective climate scenario for the Biebrza Valley in the
time horizon 2070–2100 assumes a significant increase in precipitation in summer
(which will result in an increased frequency of summer flooding), a decrease in
precipitation in autumn, winter and spring (which will induce a reduction in spring
flooding and underpin the hydrological stress on wetland vegetation at the start of
the growing season) and a general increase in the average air temperature (which
will induce an increase in potential evapotranspiration in the summer and reduction
of snow accumulation in the winter).
Climate change impacts to wetlands can be defined as direct (climate change
influences the environment: less rain – less flooding – habitats induced) and indirect
(climate change entails the reaction of managers and stakeholders, which consequently induce habitats: more rain – flooding mitigated by the drainage – declining
groundwater levels challenge the wetlands). Both levels of impacts should be
anticipated in climate-adapted environmental management.
Plant associations such as Caricion davallianae, Caricion nigrae, Alopecurion
pratensis and Molinion caeruleae, are suspected to be among the most sensitive to
negative impacts of climate change in the Biebrza Valley. While for certain habitats
228
M. Grygoruk et al.