projected mean monthly air temperature is higher in the case of every month than
that observed in 2000–2011. The biggest absolute differences between projected
and contemporary observed monthly average air temperatures were defined for the
Biebrza Valley for autumn and winter (October–January), whereas the smallest
differences are projected for late spring (April–June).
Prospective alterations in monthly sums of precipitation derived from the
analysed GCM-RCM’s do not present such a clear direction of changes as the
values of average monthly air temperature. However, a similar trend in precipitation increase in the winter months (November–January) can be seen (Fig. 14.3b),
whereas the mean values of projected monthly sums of precipitation in the summer,
projected for the time horizon 2070–2100, are slightly lower than the values
observed in 2000–2011. However, the relatively wide range of uncertainty (herein
referred to as the difference between the highest and the lowest prospective monthly
sum of precipitation) does not allow the assumption as to whether the temporal
rainfall distribution presents any unquestionable pattern.
Comprehensive analysis of observed and prospective trends in P and T quantitative variability revealed that in the time horizon 2070–2100: (1) the ongoing
decrease in summer sums of precipitation will continue, (2) extreme rainfall events
in the summer with increased frequency will occur, and (3) the average monthly air
temperature is likely to increase, especially in winter months. Hence, it is suspected
that the valuable ecosystems and wetland management in the Biebrza Valley will
face a decreasing frequency of spring flooding (prospective increase of air temperature in the winter will induce a reduction in snow accumulation and consequently
snowmelt flooding will be reduced). Moreover, an increasing frequency in summer
flooding, with any possibility, will underpin an escalation of conflicts at the
interface of environmental conservation and agricultural management, as with
any likelihood the pressure on meadow drainage will increase. Moreover, it is
likely that due to the general increase in air temperature, the potential evapotranspiration intensity will also increase. Thus, the water balance of wetlands in the
Biebrza Valley may be affected and hydrological stress on the vegetation due to a
lack of water in the soil can occur (Stagl and Hattermann 2011).
14.4 Climate-Induced Challenges for Adaptive
Management – The Burning Interface
of Habitats and Stakeholders
14.4.1 Mild vs. Extreme
As identified, adaptation strategies in the environmental conservation of wetlands
in the Biebrza Valley in its agricultural context have to consider the observed and
prospective trends in climate variability. The range of uncertainty of projected P
and T changes (Fig. 14.3) permits two hypothetical scenarios to be derived – “mild”
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M. Grygoruk et al.
that observed in 2000–2011. The biggest absolute differences between projected
and contemporary observed monthly average air temperatures were defined for the
Biebrza Valley for autumn and winter (October–January), whereas the smallest
differences are projected for late spring (April–June).
Prospective alterations in monthly sums of precipitation derived from the
analysed GCM-RCM’s do not present such a clear direction of changes as the
values of average monthly air temperature. However, a similar trend in precipitation increase in the winter months (November–January) can be seen (Fig. 14.3b),
whereas the mean values of projected monthly sums of precipitation in the summer,
projected for the time horizon 2070–2100, are slightly lower than the values
observed in 2000–2011. However, the relatively wide range of uncertainty (herein
referred to as the difference between the highest and the lowest prospective monthly
sum of precipitation) does not allow the assumption as to whether the temporal
rainfall distribution presents any unquestionable pattern.
Comprehensive analysis of observed and prospective trends in P and T quantitative variability revealed that in the time horizon 2070–2100: (1) the ongoing
decrease in summer sums of precipitation will continue, (2) extreme rainfall events
in the summer with increased frequency will occur, and (3) the average monthly air
temperature is likely to increase, especially in winter months. Hence, it is suspected
that the valuable ecosystems and wetland management in the Biebrza Valley will
face a decreasing frequency of spring flooding (prospective increase of air temperature in the winter will induce a reduction in snow accumulation and consequently
snowmelt flooding will be reduced). Moreover, an increasing frequency in summer
flooding, with any possibility, will underpin an escalation of conflicts at the
interface of environmental conservation and agricultural management, as with
any likelihood the pressure on meadow drainage will increase. Moreover, it is
likely that due to the general increase in air temperature, the potential evapotranspiration intensity will also increase. Thus, the water balance of wetlands in the
Biebrza Valley may be affected and hydrological stress on the vegetation due to a
lack of water in the soil can occur (Stagl and Hattermann 2011).
14.4 Climate-Induced Challenges for Adaptive
Management – The Burning Interface
of Habitats and Stakeholders
14.4.1 Mild vs. Extreme
As identified, adaptation strategies in the environmental conservation of wetlands
in the Biebrza Valley in its agricultural context have to consider the observed and
prospective trends in climate variability. The range of uncertainty of projected P
and T changes (Fig. 14.3) permits two hypothetical scenarios to be derived – “mild”
218
M. Grygoruk et al.