model was applied to simulate agricultural intensification, with the diffusion of
agricultural innovations as the main driver of land use change. The same model was
applied for a case study in northern Vietnam (see Sect 10.6), building on a large
dataset gathered through farm household surveys. The section describes the data
basis required to calibrate and validate the MP-MAS model, explains the relevance
and basis of derivation of the simulated scenarios, and analyzes model outputs with
respect to potential recommendations to policymakers. A combination of the
mechanistic biophysical and detailed agent-based models is presented in
Sect. 10.8. LUCIA and MP-MAS were dynamically coupled to run detailed
simulations of land use and landscape dynamics in Chieng Khoi, north-west
Vietnam. The section describes the advantages of the coupling approach over
combining either model to an empirical counterpart. Challenges along the way
are discussed, technical in nature as well as in terms of the interpretation of complex
outputs and the new insights created by the coupled model, with a focus on spatial
variability.
10.2 Case Study 1: Linking Natural Resource Use and
Environmental Functions in the Uplands and Lowlands:
the Land Use Change Impact Assessment (LUCIA) Tool
10.2.1 Introduction
Devlopment of LUCIA has been ongoing at the University of Hohenheim since
2008, within the context of the Uplands Program.
1,2 For a research framework that
aimed to provide holistic approaches at the landscape scale, it appeared logical to
design a tool capable of integrating a large but fragmented knowledge database on
soil fertility, hydrology, plant growth and food security related processes.
The model was conceptualized to address questions specifically relevant to the
Uplands Program’s research areas in Thailand and Vietnam, but at the same time in
a generic way to allow its use in mountainous ecosystems of other regions. Given
the general tendency for agricultural intensification and natural resource overuse in
both research areas, the consequences of this on water and soil resources were the
most burning issues to be investigated by the several sub-projects of the Program.
One major issue in the area was continuous high input maize cultivation, as this has
been replacing fallow-based upland rice and cassava systems for the last decade
(Keil et al. 2008), leading to severe soil loss and the siltation of paddies (Schmitter
1 This section was written by Carsten Marohn and Georg Cadisch.
2 Jesko Quenzer, Betha Lusiana, Yohannes Z Ayanu, Kefyalew Sahle, Jonatan Mu ¨ller and Rebecca
Schaufelberger in Hohenheim contributed to various steps in LUCIA development and testing.
Support by the PCRaster developer team in Utrecht is also appreciated.
372
C. Marohn et al.
agricultural innovations as the main driver of land use change. The same model was
applied for a case study in northern Vietnam (see Sect 10.6), building on a large
dataset gathered through farm household surveys. The section describes the data
basis required to calibrate and validate the MP-MAS model, explains the relevance
and basis of derivation of the simulated scenarios, and analyzes model outputs with
respect to potential recommendations to policymakers. A combination of the
mechanistic biophysical and detailed agent-based models is presented in
Sect. 10.8. LUCIA and MP-MAS were dynamically coupled to run detailed
simulations of land use and landscape dynamics in Chieng Khoi, north-west
Vietnam. The section describes the advantages of the coupling approach over
combining either model to an empirical counterpart. Challenges along the way
are discussed, technical in nature as well as in terms of the interpretation of complex
outputs and the new insights created by the coupled model, with a focus on spatial
variability.
10.2 Case Study 1: Linking Natural Resource Use and
Environmental Functions in the Uplands and Lowlands:
the Land Use Change Impact Assessment (LUCIA) Tool
10.2.1 Introduction
Devlopment of LUCIA has been ongoing at the University of Hohenheim since
2008, within the context of the Uplands Program.
1,2 For a research framework that
aimed to provide holistic approaches at the landscape scale, it appeared logical to
design a tool capable of integrating a large but fragmented knowledge database on
soil fertility, hydrology, plant growth and food security related processes.
The model was conceptualized to address questions specifically relevant to the
Uplands Program’s research areas in Thailand and Vietnam, but at the same time in
a generic way to allow its use in mountainous ecosystems of other regions. Given
the general tendency for agricultural intensification and natural resource overuse in
both research areas, the consequences of this on water and soil resources were the
most burning issues to be investigated by the several sub-projects of the Program.
One major issue in the area was continuous high input maize cultivation, as this has
been replacing fallow-based upland rice and cassava systems for the last decade
(Keil et al. 2008), leading to severe soil loss and the siltation of paddies (Schmitter
1 This section was written by Carsten Marohn and Georg Cadisch.
2 Jesko Quenzer, Betha Lusiana, Yohannes Z Ayanu, Kefyalew Sahle, Jonatan Mu ¨ller and Rebecca
Schaufelberger in Hohenheim contributed to various steps in LUCIA development and testing.
Support by the PCRaster developer team in Utrecht is also appreciated.
372
C. Marohn et al.