the number of warm days is higher than warm nights, with a
relatively milder decrease in number of cold days since
1951. Increase in frequency of warm days during monsoon
and winter seasons largely contributed to the observed
highest annual increase in number of warm days over India
from the mid-twentieth century. The accelerated annual
increase in number of warm days and warm nights, and
decrease in number of cold nights are observed during 1986–
2015. Increase in frequency of warm days during winter
season resulted in the highest annual increase in number of
warm days over India during this recent 30 year period.
Significant annual warming is observed for the warmest day,
warmest night and coldest night since 1986. The warming
during pre-monsoon and winter seasons contributed to the
strongest warming of the warmest day over India after about
1986.
The all India mean surface air temperature change for the
mid-term period 2040–2069 relative to 1976–2005 is projected to be in the range of 1.39–2.70 °C, and is larger than the
natural internal variability. This assessment is based on a
reliability ensemble average (REA) estimate incorporating
each RCM performance and convergence and is associated
with less than 13% uncertainty range. All India mean surface
air temperature is projected to increase in the far future (2070–
2099) by 1.33 ± 0.24 °C under RCP2.6, 2.44 ± 0.41 °C
under RCP4.5 and 4.44 ± 0.45 °C under RCP8.5 scenario,
respectively. These changes are relative to the period 1976–
2005. The semi-arid north-west and north India will likely
warm more rapidly than the all India mean. The REA changes
for all India annual minimum temperature of 4.71 ± 0.35 °C
is more pronounced than that of 4.10 ± 0.45 °C and
4.44 ± 0.45 °C increases estimated for the respective annual
maximum and mean temperatures, respectively by the end of
the twenty-first century under RCP8.5 scenario. The frequency
and intensity of warm days and warm nights are projected to
increase over India in the next decades, while that of cold days
and cold nights will decrease (high confidence). The changes
will be more pronounced for cold nights and warm nights. The
pre-monsoon season heatwave frequency, duration, intensity
and areal coverage over India are projected to increase substantially during the twenty-first century (high confidence).
References
Bindoff NL, Stott PA, AchutaRao KM, Allen MR, Gillett N, Gutzler D,
Hansingo K, Hegerl G, Hu Y, Jain S, Mokhov II, Overland J,
Perlwitz J, Sebbari R, Zhang X (2013) Detection and attribution of
climate change: from global to regional. In: Stocker TF, Qin D,
Plattner DG, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y,
Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical
science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth
assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate
change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA. p 867–952. https://doi.org/10.1017/
CBO9781107415324.022
Borgaonkar HP, Pant GB, Rupa Kumar K (1994) Dendroclimatic
reconstruction of summer precipitation at Srinagar, Kashmir, India
since the late 18th century. Holocene 4(3):299–306
Borgaonkar HP, Pant GB, Rupa Kumar K (1996) Ring-width variations
in Cedrusdeodara and its climatic response over the western
Himalaya. Int J Climatol 16(12):1409–1422
Borgaonkar HP, Somaru Ram, Sikder AB (2009) Assessment of
tree-ring analysis of high elevation Cedrusdeodara D. Don from
Western Himalaya (India) in relation to climate and glacier
fluctuations. Dendrochronologia 27(1):59–69
Borgaonkar HP, Sikder AB, Ram Somaru (2011) High altitude forest
sensitivity to the recent warming: a tree-ring analysis of conifers
from Western Himalaya India. Quat Int 236(2011):158–166
Borgaonkar HP, Gandhi N, Ram Somaru, Krishnan R (2018) Tree-ring
reconstruction of late summer temperatures in northern Sikkim
(eastern Himalayas). Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 504
(1):125–135
Boucher O, Randall D, Artaxo P, Bretherton C, Feingold G, Forster P,
Kerminen VM, Kondo Y, Liao H, Lohmann U, Rasch P,
Satheesh SK, Sherwood S, Stevens B, Zhang XY (2013) Clouds
and aerosols. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M,
Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM
(eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution
of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p 571–658.
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.016
Cai W, Santoso A, Wang G (2015) ENSO and greenhouse warming.
Nat Clim Chang 5:849–859. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2743
Chaturvedi RK, Joshi J, Jayaraman M, Bala G, Ravindranath NH
(2012) Multimodel climate change projections for India under
representative concentration pathways. Curr Sci 103(7):791–802
Christensen JH, Krishna Kumar K, Aldrian E, An SI, Cavalcanti IFA,
de Castro M, Dong W, Goswami P, Hall A, Kanyanga JK, Kitoh A,
Kossin J, Lau NC, Renwick J, Stephenson DB, Xie XP, Zhou T
(2013) Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional
climate change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M,
Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM
(eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution
of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p 1217–
1308. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028
Coffel ED, Horton RM, de Sherbinin A (2018) Temperature and
humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress
exposure during the 21st century. Environ Res Lett 13. https://doi.
org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e
Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Gao X, Gutowski WJ, Johns T, Krinner G, Shongwe M,
Tebaldi C, Weaver AJ, Wehner M (2013) Long-term climate
change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In:
Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK,
Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate
change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working
group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel
on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p 1029–1136. https://doi.org/
10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024
Cook ER, Krusic PJ, Jones PD (2003) Dendroclimatic signals in long
tree-ring chronologies from the Himalayas of Nepal. Int J Climatol
23:707–732
42
J. Sanjay et al.
relatively milder decrease in number of cold days since
1951. Increase in frequency of warm days during monsoon
and winter seasons largely contributed to the observed
highest annual increase in number of warm days over India
from the mid-twentieth century. The accelerated annual
increase in number of warm days and warm nights, and
decrease in number of cold nights are observed during 1986–
2015. Increase in frequency of warm days during winter
season resulted in the highest annual increase in number of
warm days over India during this recent 30 year period.
Significant annual warming is observed for the warmest day,
warmest night and coldest night since 1986. The warming
during pre-monsoon and winter seasons contributed to the
strongest warming of the warmest day over India after about
1986.
The all India mean surface air temperature change for the
mid-term period 2040–2069 relative to 1976–2005 is projected to be in the range of 1.39–2.70 °C, and is larger than the
natural internal variability. This assessment is based on a
reliability ensemble average (REA) estimate incorporating
each RCM performance and convergence and is associated
with less than 13% uncertainty range. All India mean surface
air temperature is projected to increase in the far future (2070–
2099) by 1.33 ± 0.24 °C under RCP2.6, 2.44 ± 0.41 °C
under RCP4.5 and 4.44 ± 0.45 °C under RCP8.5 scenario,
respectively. These changes are relative to the period 1976–
2005. The semi-arid north-west and north India will likely
warm more rapidly than the all India mean. The REA changes
for all India annual minimum temperature of 4.71 ± 0.35 °C
is more pronounced than that of 4.10 ± 0.45 °C and
4.44 ± 0.45 °C increases estimated for the respective annual
maximum and mean temperatures, respectively by the end of
the twenty-first century under RCP8.5 scenario. The frequency
and intensity of warm days and warm nights are projected to
increase over India in the next decades, while that of cold days
and cold nights will decrease (high confidence). The changes
will be more pronounced for cold nights and warm nights. The
pre-monsoon season heatwave frequency, duration, intensity
and areal coverage over India are projected to increase substantially during the twenty-first century (high confidence).
References
Bindoff NL, Stott PA, AchutaRao KM, Allen MR, Gillett N, Gutzler D,
Hansingo K, Hegerl G, Hu Y, Jain S, Mokhov II, Overland J,
Perlwitz J, Sebbari R, Zhang X (2013) Detection and attribution of
climate change: from global to regional. In: Stocker TF, Qin D,
Plattner DG, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y,
Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical
science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth
assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate
change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom
and New York, NY, USA. p 867–952. https://doi.org/10.1017/
CBO9781107415324.022
Borgaonkar HP, Pant GB, Rupa Kumar K (1994) Dendroclimatic
reconstruction of summer precipitation at Srinagar, Kashmir, India
since the late 18th century. Holocene 4(3):299–306
Borgaonkar HP, Pant GB, Rupa Kumar K (1996) Ring-width variations
in Cedrusdeodara and its climatic response over the western
Himalaya. Int J Climatol 16(12):1409–1422
Borgaonkar HP, Somaru Ram, Sikder AB (2009) Assessment of
tree-ring analysis of high elevation Cedrusdeodara D. Don from
Western Himalaya (India) in relation to climate and glacier
fluctuations. Dendrochronologia 27(1):59–69
Borgaonkar HP, Sikder AB, Ram Somaru (2011) High altitude forest
sensitivity to the recent warming: a tree-ring analysis of conifers
from Western Himalaya India. Quat Int 236(2011):158–166
Borgaonkar HP, Gandhi N, Ram Somaru, Krishnan R (2018) Tree-ring
reconstruction of late summer temperatures in northern Sikkim
(eastern Himalayas). Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 504
(1):125–135
Boucher O, Randall D, Artaxo P, Bretherton C, Feingold G, Forster P,
Kerminen VM, Kondo Y, Liao H, Lohmann U, Rasch P,
Satheesh SK, Sherwood S, Stevens B, Zhang XY (2013) Clouds
and aerosols. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M,
Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM
(eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution
of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p 571–658.
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.016
Cai W, Santoso A, Wang G (2015) ENSO and greenhouse warming.
Nat Clim Chang 5:849–859. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2743
Chaturvedi RK, Joshi J, Jayaraman M, Bala G, Ravindranath NH
(2012) Multimodel climate change projections for India under
representative concentration pathways. Curr Sci 103(7):791–802
Christensen JH, Krishna Kumar K, Aldrian E, An SI, Cavalcanti IFA,
de Castro M, Dong W, Goswami P, Hall A, Kanyanga JK, Kitoh A,
Kossin J, Lau NC, Renwick J, Stephenson DB, Xie XP, Zhou T
(2013) Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional
climate change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M,
Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM
(eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution
of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p 1217–
1308. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028
Coffel ED, Horton RM, de Sherbinin A (2018) Temperature and
humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress
exposure during the 21st century. Environ Res Lett 13. https://doi.
org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e
Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Gao X, Gutowski WJ, Johns T, Krinner G, Shongwe M,
Tebaldi C, Weaver AJ, Wehner M (2013) Long-term climate
change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In:
Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK,
Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate
change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working
group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel
on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p 1029–1136. https://doi.org/
10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024
Cook ER, Krusic PJ, Jones PD (2003) Dendroclimatic signals in long
tree-ring chronologies from the Himalayas of Nepal. Int J Climatol
23:707–732
42
J. Sanjay et al.