mean annual India warming exceeds 2 °C within the
twenty-first century under RCP4.5, and the warming exceeds
4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century under RCP8.5
scenario. The spread in the minimum to maximum range in
the projected warming among the CORDEX South Asia
RCMs for each RCP scenario (shown as shading in Fig. 2.8)
provides a simple, but crude, measure of uncertainty.
A reliable quantitative estimate of all India averaged
annual surface air temperature changes and the associated
uncertainty range of future temperature projections for India
are obtained by incorporating individual model performance
and model convergence criteria within a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) methodology (see more details in
Box 2.4).
Table 2.6 List of the 16 CORDEX South Asia RCM simulations driven with 10 CMIP5 AOGCMs
CORDEX
South Asia
RCM
RCM description
Contributing CORDEX
modelling center
Driving CMIP5 AOGCM (see
details at https://verc.enes.org/
data/enes-model-data/cmip5/
resolution)
Contributing CMIP5
modelling center
IITM-RegCM4
(6 members)
The Abdus Salam International
Centre for Theoretical Physics
(ICTP) Regional Climatic Model
Version 4 (RegCM4; Giorgi et al.
2012)
Centre for Climate
Change Research
(CCCR), Indian
Institute of Tropical
Meteorology (IITM),
India
CCCma-CanESM2
Canadian Centre for
Climate Modelling and
Analysis (CCCma), Canada
NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M National Oceanic and
Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA),
Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory
(GFDL), USA
CNRM-CM5
Centre National de
RecherchesMe´te´
orologiques (CNRM),
France
MPI-ESM-MR
Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology (MPI-M),
Germany
IPSL-CM5A-LR
Institut Pierre-Simon
Laplace (IPSL), France
CSIRO-Mk3.6
Commonwealth Scientific
and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO),
Australia
SMHI-RCA4
(10 members)
Rossby Centre Regional
Atmospheric Model Version 4
(RCA4; Samuelsson et al. 2011)
Rossby Centre, Swedish
Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute
(SMHI), Sweden
ICHEC-EC-EARTH
Irish Centre for High-End
Computing (ICHEC),
European Consortium (EC)
MIROC-MIROC5
Model for Interdisciplinary
Research On Climate
(MIROC), Japan Agency
for Marine-Earth Sci. &
Tech., Japan
NCC-NorESM1
Norwegian Climate Centre
(NCC), Norway
MOHC-HadGEM2-ES
Met Office Hadley Centre
for Climate Change
(MOHC), United Kingdom
CCCma-CanESM2
CCCma, Canada
NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M NOAA, GFDL, USA
CNRM-CM5
CNRM, France
MPI-ESM-LR
MPI-M, Germany
IPSL-CM5A-MR
IPSL, France
CSIRO-Mk3.6
CSIRO, Australia
2 Temperature Changes in India
33
twenty-first century under RCP4.5, and the warming exceeds
4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century under RCP8.5
scenario. The spread in the minimum to maximum range in
the projected warming among the CORDEX South Asia
RCMs for each RCP scenario (shown as shading in Fig. 2.8)
provides a simple, but crude, measure of uncertainty.
A reliable quantitative estimate of all India averaged
annual surface air temperature changes and the associated
uncertainty range of future temperature projections for India
are obtained by incorporating individual model performance
and model convergence criteria within a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) methodology (see more details in
Box 2.4).
Table 2.6 List of the 16 CORDEX South Asia RCM simulations driven with 10 CMIP5 AOGCMs
CORDEX
South Asia
RCM
RCM description
Contributing CORDEX
modelling center
Driving CMIP5 AOGCM (see
details at https://verc.enes.org/
data/enes-model-data/cmip5/
resolution)
Contributing CMIP5
modelling center
IITM-RegCM4
(6 members)
The Abdus Salam International
Centre for Theoretical Physics
(ICTP) Regional Climatic Model
Version 4 (RegCM4; Giorgi et al.
2012)
Centre for Climate
Change Research
(CCCR), Indian
Institute of Tropical
Meteorology (IITM),
India
CCCma-CanESM2
Canadian Centre for
Climate Modelling and
Analysis (CCCma), Canada
NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M National Oceanic and
Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA),
Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory
(GFDL), USA
CNRM-CM5
Centre National de
RecherchesMe´te´
orologiques (CNRM),
France
MPI-ESM-MR
Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology (MPI-M),
Germany
IPSL-CM5A-LR
Institut Pierre-Simon
Laplace (IPSL), France
CSIRO-Mk3.6
Commonwealth Scientific
and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO),
Australia
SMHI-RCA4
(10 members)
Rossby Centre Regional
Atmospheric Model Version 4
(RCA4; Samuelsson et al. 2011)
Rossby Centre, Swedish
Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute
(SMHI), Sweden
ICHEC-EC-EARTH
Irish Centre for High-End
Computing (ICHEC),
European Consortium (EC)
MIROC-MIROC5
Model for Interdisciplinary
Research On Climate
(MIROC), Japan Agency
for Marine-Earth Sci. &
Tech., Japan
NCC-NorESM1
Norwegian Climate Centre
(NCC), Norway
MOHC-HadGEM2-ES
Met Office Hadley Centre
for Climate Change
(MOHC), United Kingdom
CCCma-CanESM2
CCCma, Canada
NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M NOAA, GFDL, USA
CNRM-CM5
CNRM, France
MPI-ESM-LR
MPI-M, Germany
IPSL-CM5A-MR
IPSL, France
CSIRO-Mk3.6
CSIRO, Australia
2 Temperature Changes in India
33