drought events per decade is projected to expand across most
of the regions in India by the end of the twenty-first century
under RCP 8.5 scenario (Fig. 6.7l). Thus, more frequent
droughts are projected under RCP 8.5 in comparison with
RCP 4.5 for all the timescales.
Similar results are obtained from various climate model
studies. A probable increase in drought intensity over the
Indian region towards the end of the twenty-first century is
suggested under the RCP 4.5 scenario (Krishnan et al. 2016).
SPEI index derived from 5 CMIP5 climate models indicates
a possibility of more frequent occurrences of severe droughts
by the end of the twenty-first century under both RCP 4.5
and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The similar results are reproduced
using CORDEX South Asia experiments (Spinoni et al.
Fig. 6.7 Changes in frequency (per decade) of moderate and severe
droughts (SPEI −1) for a, d, g, j JJAS, b, e, h, k OND and c, f, i,
l annual timescale, projected by multi-model ensemble of six CORDEX
simulations for a–c, g–i near future (2040–2069) and d–f, j–l far future
(2070–2099) from a–f RCP4.5 and g–l RCP8.5 scenarios, with respect
to the historical period (1976–2005)
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