“whoever controls Earth’s low orbits, also controls the space around the Earth, and
whoever controls the space around the Earth controls the planet. Whoever controls
planet Earth determines the fate of humanity”.
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In the last sixty years of space exploration, Americans and Russians have
acquired the skills that allow astronauts to live for long periods in Earth orbit.
China is gearing up to do the same within the next decade with its own orbital station. It is clear that the US will pursue “the strategic objective of superiority in
space just like it exercises that of superiority on Earth’ skies”.
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In the twenty-first
century, this strategy will be supported by private companies capable of industrializing new products and services.
In light of what appears to be the current American strategy, Friedman’s predictions may be less science fiction than previously thought. Industry is revolutionizing aerospace technology, and the government is funding new lunar programs and
a Space Force. It is unrealistic to think hundreds of people may live in space on
Battle Stars within a few decades, when in the last six decades only about six hundred selected individuals out of a world population of six billion people have been
sent into orbit in just over two hundred space missions. Yet the analysis of The Next
Hundred Years
111
predicts that the Battle Stars’ core technology will emerge from
the commercial programs under development, and in this case, it is perfectly in line
with what is happening. At the annual Space Foundation symposium, Gen. John
Hyten, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed that “from reusable
launchers to hypersonic spaceplanes, the Pentagon is looking to exploit the recent
boom of innovation in commercial space systems for military applications”.
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All these initiatives, dipped in the myth of space flight and the dream of interplanetary colonization, attract the interest of the public. Entrepreneurs aspire to
get their hands on a business that promises to give stellar returns in the next
decades. In 2019, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s
Space Forum (the OECD Space Forum) estimated that the turnover linked to the
Space Economy totaled $300 billion,
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but the future is shaping up to be much
brighter than that. Financial institutions such as Bank of America expect a revenue
growth of up to $3 trillion by 2040.
114
109
Dolmann, Everett. 2001. Astropolitik: Classical geopolitics in the Space Age. Frank Cass
Publishers, 8, Introduction.
110
US Senate Armed Services Committee, March 16, 2005.
111
Friedman, George. 2009. The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. Anchor
Books Edition, Chapter 10 “Space Warfare”, p. 180.
112
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/space-symposium/2016/04/15/
dod-embraces-commercial-space-boom-but-warns-of-its-limits/.
113
https://www.oecd.org/innovation/inno/measuring-economic-impact-space-sector.pdf.
114
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/31/the-space-industry-will-be-worth-nearly-3-trillion-in30-years-bank-of-america-predicts.html.
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