92
4.7 The Value of Grey
4.7.1 Natural Disasters and Layer Model Advantages
When planning Japanese cities the threat of natural disasters must never be ignored.
Only within a recent couple of decades has Japan experienced four major earthquakes and a tsunami; Kobe in 1995, Niigata in 2001, Northeast Japan in 2011, and
Kumamoto in 2016. Floods and typhoons also frequently ravage Japanese cities, not
only earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis. The Comprehensive Risk Index
developed by Munich Reinsurance Company (see References) includes all possible
risks that cities in the world face, and rates each city. Most cities in Western Europe
and North America are a very low number (e.g. Paris 25, London 30, and NYC 42).
Compared to European and North American cities, however, Tokyo is an astronomically high 710. This index clearly indicates a fundamental difference in the scale of
disaster risk between European and North American cities and those in Japan.
Cities need food. If a distinct boundary exists between urban land use and rural
land use and thus the city becomes an entity without agricultural land uses, no food
can be generated within its boundary and thus the city will become a place completely dependent on external food supplies. As long as transportation systems are
operating normally, cities will avoid any major problems of completely depending
on food supplied by rural areas and international markets. However, once a major
natural disaster occurs, transportation systems will most likely be seriously damaged, and the external food and energy supply will also most likely be suddenly
disrupted. If the city has been completely depending on external food and energy
supply, then the loss of transportation systems may inevitably result in the loss of
food and energy, and the city will suddenly be caught in a serious situation.
To be prepared for such unpredictable and fatal occurrences, the layer model
provides a resilient solution to how land should be planned. Under ordinary conditions, preference can simply be given to the urban layer, and the influence of the
rural layer can be minimized. However, when the transportation systems suddenly
cease to function because of natural disasters and food supplies have been disrupted,
cities shall be able to take advantage of the rural layer and generate its own food
inside, or nearby, the city limits. Such a redundant system in food supply based on
the layer model, which includes intra- and peri-urban food supplies, may seem inefficient but has the advantage of adaptability to unpredictable changes, and thus
highly contributes to a city’s resilience. To maintain such a redundant food system,
the rural layer should always be embedded in the area as “seeds” to enable immediate response to sudden demands on local food supplies. Japanese cities have realized an increasing probability of such a situation suddenly happening, and the layer
model unintentionally maintained high potential to make cities resilient. The advantage of the layer model can be found in its adaptability to a given condition, especially to unpredictable changes such as those caused by natural disasters.
M. Yokohari et al.
4.7 The Value of Grey
4.7.1 Natural Disasters and Layer Model Advantages
When planning Japanese cities the threat of natural disasters must never be ignored.
Only within a recent couple of decades has Japan experienced four major earthquakes and a tsunami; Kobe in 1995, Niigata in 2001, Northeast Japan in 2011, and
Kumamoto in 2016. Floods and typhoons also frequently ravage Japanese cities, not
only earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis. The Comprehensive Risk Index
developed by Munich Reinsurance Company (see References) includes all possible
risks that cities in the world face, and rates each city. Most cities in Western Europe
and North America are a very low number (e.g. Paris 25, London 30, and NYC 42).
Compared to European and North American cities, however, Tokyo is an astronomically high 710. This index clearly indicates a fundamental difference in the scale of
disaster risk between European and North American cities and those in Japan.
Cities need food. If a distinct boundary exists between urban land use and rural
land use and thus the city becomes an entity without agricultural land uses, no food
can be generated within its boundary and thus the city will become a place completely dependent on external food supplies. As long as transportation systems are
operating normally, cities will avoid any major problems of completely depending
on food supplied by rural areas and international markets. However, once a major
natural disaster occurs, transportation systems will most likely be seriously damaged, and the external food and energy supply will also most likely be suddenly
disrupted. If the city has been completely depending on external food and energy
supply, then the loss of transportation systems may inevitably result in the loss of
food and energy, and the city will suddenly be caught in a serious situation.
To be prepared for such unpredictable and fatal occurrences, the layer model
provides a resilient solution to how land should be planned. Under ordinary conditions, preference can simply be given to the urban layer, and the influence of the
rural layer can be minimized. However, when the transportation systems suddenly
cease to function because of natural disasters and food supplies have been disrupted,
cities shall be able to take advantage of the rural layer and generate its own food
inside, or nearby, the city limits. Such a redundant system in food supply based on
the layer model, which includes intra- and peri-urban food supplies, may seem inefficient but has the advantage of adaptability to unpredictable changes, and thus
highly contributes to a city’s resilience. To maintain such a redundant food system,
the rural layer should always be embedded in the area as “seeds” to enable immediate response to sudden demands on local food supplies. Japanese cities have realized an increasing probability of such a situation suddenly happening, and the layer
model unintentionally maintained high potential to make cities resilient. The advantage of the layer model can be found in its adaptability to a given condition, especially to unpredictable changes such as those caused by natural disasters.
M. Yokohari et al.