33
Also, the speed of China’s economic growth has surpassed expectations. Thinking
about this by extension from the situation at the time 1995, the surmise was that
China would not achieve saturation of man-made objects until further in the future
than today. However, it has done so faster than expected, and what is more, if we
think about things like the input volume of cement, it gives us the sense that it has
even overshot that saturation. China has expanded beyond all measure when it
comes to one shared yardstick. The situation perhaps is that the coastal and urban
areas have gone beyond saturation of man-made objects, while it will still take a
little more time for that to occur in the mountainous areas and provincial cities.
The concept of saturation of man-made objects was first put forth in Vision 2050.
In recent years, observers mainly in Europe have begun to talk about the economy
of the circulating society, using the term “circular economy.” The circular economy
argument calls for getting away from resource mining and greatly reducing energy
consumption by combining recycling with saturation of man-made objects. This
argument has not yet achieved the degree of logical consistency presented in Vision
2050. Furthermore, in 2000 the Japanese Government as a national policy adopted
the three “R”s of “reduce, reuse, and recycle” through the Basic Law for Establishing
a Recycling-based Society. Recycling comprises the re-use of something as a material and using combustion as an energy resource. The same value is assigned to
material and thermal recycling. The three Rs in this sense comprise a fundamental
way of thinking with which Japan should stand proud before the world.
Considered in this light, there is a strong sense of Japan’s being a forerunner
when it comes to the circulating economy. In particular, the concepts of the completely circulating society arising from saturation of man-made objects laid out in
Vision 2050 and the energy-efficient society that comes with that are of a significance that even today should guide the world.
With regard to tripling energy efficiency compared to 1995, even today this is
valid, including that “tripling” figure. That figure was a result of projecting just how
far technology could close the gap between theory and reality in terms of energy
consumption with respect to all of the bigger items in the amount of energy consumed and taking the weighted average of the projected figure. Various proposals
had been offered before this such as Factor 4
1
and Factor 10
2
, but these figures had
thin theoretical foundations. A figure based on rational analysis would be quite reasonable. On the other hand, the objective of doubling the amount of renewable
1 “Factor 4” is a concept first presented in 1992. It calls for using one-quarter of the resources and
energy needed for products and services. This will make it possible to quadruple resource productivity (the amount of wealth and services that can be produced per unit of input volume of a
resource). It aims to double wealth, while halving strains on the environment such as overuse of
natural resources.
2 “Factory 10” is a concept first presented in 1991. It argues that it is necessary to cut in half the
amount of resources currently being used in the next 50 years in order to create a sustainable society. To accomplish this, it will be necessary for developed countries – which account for 20% of
the world’s population – to increase resource productivity (the amount of wealth and services that
can be produced per unit of input volume of a resource) by a factor of 10.
2.3 Vision 2050 as a Happy Vision
Also, the speed of China’s economic growth has surpassed expectations. Thinking
about this by extension from the situation at the time 1995, the surmise was that
China would not achieve saturation of man-made objects until further in the future
than today. However, it has done so faster than expected, and what is more, if we
think about things like the input volume of cement, it gives us the sense that it has
even overshot that saturation. China has expanded beyond all measure when it
comes to one shared yardstick. The situation perhaps is that the coastal and urban
areas have gone beyond saturation of man-made objects, while it will still take a
little more time for that to occur in the mountainous areas and provincial cities.
The concept of saturation of man-made objects was first put forth in Vision 2050.
In recent years, observers mainly in Europe have begun to talk about the economy
of the circulating society, using the term “circular economy.” The circular economy
argument calls for getting away from resource mining and greatly reducing energy
consumption by combining recycling with saturation of man-made objects. This
argument has not yet achieved the degree of logical consistency presented in Vision
2050. Furthermore, in 2000 the Japanese Government as a national policy adopted
the three “R”s of “reduce, reuse, and recycle” through the Basic Law for Establishing
a Recycling-based Society. Recycling comprises the re-use of something as a material and using combustion as an energy resource. The same value is assigned to
material and thermal recycling. The three Rs in this sense comprise a fundamental
way of thinking with which Japan should stand proud before the world.
Considered in this light, there is a strong sense of Japan’s being a forerunner
when it comes to the circulating economy. In particular, the concepts of the completely circulating society arising from saturation of man-made objects laid out in
Vision 2050 and the energy-efficient society that comes with that are of a significance that even today should guide the world.
With regard to tripling energy efficiency compared to 1995, even today this is
valid, including that “tripling” figure. That figure was a result of projecting just how
far technology could close the gap between theory and reality in terms of energy
consumption with respect to all of the bigger items in the amount of energy consumed and taking the weighted average of the projected figure. Various proposals
had been offered before this such as Factor 4
1
and Factor 10
2
, but these figures had
thin theoretical foundations. A figure based on rational analysis would be quite reasonable. On the other hand, the objective of doubling the amount of renewable
1 “Factor 4” is a concept first presented in 1992. It calls for using one-quarter of the resources and
energy needed for products and services. This will make it possible to quadruple resource productivity (the amount of wealth and services that can be produced per unit of input volume of a
resource). It aims to double wealth, while halving strains on the environment such as overuse of
natural resources.
2 “Factory 10” is a concept first presented in 1991. It argues that it is necessary to cut in half the
amount of resources currently being used in the next 50 years in order to create a sustainable society. To accomplish this, it will be necessary for developed countries – which account for 20% of
the world’s population – to increase resource productivity (the amount of wealth and services that
can be produced per unit of input volume of a resource) by a factor of 10.
2.3 Vision 2050 as a Happy Vision