29
period from the mid-twentieth century to the mid-twenty-first century and account
for around 5% of total energy. In fact, the reason for nuclear power’s lack of growth
is that anxieties over safety caused costs to rise and so it has no economic advantage. With the cost of renewable energy dropping dramatically, it is difficult to paint
a scenario in which nuclear power will recover its cost competitiveness. It can be
said that we were correct (in Vision 2050) to see nuclear power as an energy source
going through a transitional period.
However, the challenge for Japan in debates over energy is the nuclear power
problem. This is because it has reactors into which considerable capital investments
were made in the past, and there are many people involved with them directly and
indirectly. In other words, it boils down to the facts that exist now. The energy with
which the sun bathes the Earth is more than 10,000 times as much as what human
beings need right now. Renewable energy technology is what makes it easy and
inexpensive to use that energy. Given that this technology is already economically
competitive, it would not be an exaggeration to say that humanity has already settled on renewable energy for the future. Japan should quickly free itself from the
yoke of nuclear power and push forward vigorously with energy efficiency and
renewable.
By way of conclusion, the speed with which wind and solar power have made
inroads exceeds even my projections at the time I drafted Vision 2050. Another
miscalculation I made, in a good sense, was about the growth of hydropower generation. I thought that we might have already reached a limit on the construction of
big dams, but in fact there was still room for development, to the extent that it might
nearly double.
The significance of the doubling of renewable energy mentioned in Vision 2050
is that it called for raising the 20% share they had accounted for – 10% from oldfashioned biomass like firewood and manure; 5% from renewable energies such as
hydro, wind, and solar power; and 5% from nuclear power – to 40%. That objective
has not been achieved, but renewables alone now account for more than 12% where
they had once been at 5%. In 2050, we will be in an era in which renewables account
for more than half of the world’s energy.
2.3 Vision 2050 as a Happy Vision
2.3.1 The Industrial Structure of Japan as a “Leading Country
in Resolving Societal Problems” and Energy
Let us next discuss the major role that Japan has played globally in making progress
on Vision 2050. Figure 2.14 shows the data on per capita GDP and energy consumption from 1965 to 2015 with the data for all three categories in 1973 designated as 1.
GDP and energy consumption both increased in unison until 1973. Those were
the years of high-speed economic growth, with industry (especially the heavy and
2.2 Energy Saving and Renewable Energy
period from the mid-twentieth century to the mid-twenty-first century and account
for around 5% of total energy. In fact, the reason for nuclear power’s lack of growth
is that anxieties over safety caused costs to rise and so it has no economic advantage. With the cost of renewable energy dropping dramatically, it is difficult to paint
a scenario in which nuclear power will recover its cost competitiveness. It can be
said that we were correct (in Vision 2050) to see nuclear power as an energy source
going through a transitional period.
However, the challenge for Japan in debates over energy is the nuclear power
problem. This is because it has reactors into which considerable capital investments
were made in the past, and there are many people involved with them directly and
indirectly. In other words, it boils down to the facts that exist now. The energy with
which the sun bathes the Earth is more than 10,000 times as much as what human
beings need right now. Renewable energy technology is what makes it easy and
inexpensive to use that energy. Given that this technology is already economically
competitive, it would not be an exaggeration to say that humanity has already settled on renewable energy for the future. Japan should quickly free itself from the
yoke of nuclear power and push forward vigorously with energy efficiency and
renewable.
By way of conclusion, the speed with which wind and solar power have made
inroads exceeds even my projections at the time I drafted Vision 2050. Another
miscalculation I made, in a good sense, was about the growth of hydropower generation. I thought that we might have already reached a limit on the construction of
big dams, but in fact there was still room for development, to the extent that it might
nearly double.
The significance of the doubling of renewable energy mentioned in Vision 2050
is that it called for raising the 20% share they had accounted for – 10% from oldfashioned biomass like firewood and manure; 5% from renewable energies such as
hydro, wind, and solar power; and 5% from nuclear power – to 40%. That objective
has not been achieved, but renewables alone now account for more than 12% where
they had once been at 5%. In 2050, we will be in an era in which renewables account
for more than half of the world’s energy.
2.3 Vision 2050 as a Happy Vision
2.3.1 The Industrial Structure of Japan as a “Leading Country
in Resolving Societal Problems” and Energy
Let us next discuss the major role that Japan has played globally in making progress
on Vision 2050. Figure 2.14 shows the data on per capita GDP and energy consumption from 1965 to 2015 with the data for all three categories in 1973 designated as 1.
GDP and energy consumption both increased in unison until 1973. Those were
the years of high-speed economic growth, with industry (especially the heavy and
2.2 Energy Saving and Renewable Energy