22
related to the corresponding amount of iron. Currently, China produces more than
half the world’s iron, and until recently most of the iron it produced was also consumed in China. Accordingly, the figure attempts to deduct China’s contributions to
the world total and look at global trends without China.
Comparing the two figures we see they are extremely similar. From this it can be
seen that iron production has been gradually transitioning from the use of iron ore
to the recycling of scrap. As of 2012, recycling already accounted for about half.
This figure chiefly shows a state of saturation in developed countries. China is
quickly reaching saturation, and eventually the whole world will reach that state and
shift into an era of recycling.
Next, let us examine future trends with China included.
The cumulative amount in Japan is 1.4 billion tons. With a population of around
125 million people, that works out to 11 tons per person. That figure is the saturation
value per person. If we think about its salience in terms of the population density of
Japan and the density of man-made objects according to that, we can consider it to
be the maximum saturation value per capita.
If we apply this 11 tons per person figure to China with its 1.3 billion population,
we get a saturation value of 14 billion tons. The total amount of iron accumulated in
China through 2012 is estimated to have been 8.9 billion tons. Annual demand is currently said to be 700 million tons, so the amount will reach 14 billion tons in 7–8 years.
In proportion to population, this means it will reach saturation equal to Japan.
Next, let’s look at the world as a whole. Currently, approximately 1.4 billion tons
of iron are produced annually around the world. The portion of this that is iron produced from blast furnaces using iron ore amounts to 1 billion tons annually and
represents the new cumulative amount globally. The remaining 400 million tons
comprise recycled iron produced in electric furnaces using scrap.
The total amount of iron that humanity has produced and accumulated up to now
is estimated to be about 30 billion tons. It exists in various places around the world
as man-made objects. That constitutes an urban mine. Furthermore, if we assume
that the amount of iron will continue to accumulate at 1 billion tons annually as it
does today resulting in an accumulation of 34 billion tons by 2050, then the total
size of urban mines will reach 64 billion tons. The saturated cumulative amount for
a global population of 9.3 billion people at 11 tons per person is approximately 100
billion tons. Given that we will be at 64% of saturation volume in 2050, this is comparable to where Japan was around 1990. If the conditions that existed in Japan
25 years ago are produced around the world, then it is quite likely that demand for
it will be at saturation.
Moreover, if we assume the life-span of man-made objects that use iron to be
30 years, then the cumulative amount of scrap produced in 1 year would be 1/30th
the total or about 2.1 billion tons annually. Currently, scrap is being generated in
amounts that far exceed the world’s production volume. The amount of energy consumed in the future will consequently be more on the shift from scrap being markedly reduced to being thrown out than it will on the use of iron ore. That is to say, it
may be assumed that a sense of saturation with iron will have permeated the world
in 2050.
2 Progress on Vision 2050 Since 1995
related to the corresponding amount of iron. Currently, China produces more than
half the world’s iron, and until recently most of the iron it produced was also consumed in China. Accordingly, the figure attempts to deduct China’s contributions to
the world total and look at global trends without China.
Comparing the two figures we see they are extremely similar. From this it can be
seen that iron production has been gradually transitioning from the use of iron ore
to the recycling of scrap. As of 2012, recycling already accounted for about half.
This figure chiefly shows a state of saturation in developed countries. China is
quickly reaching saturation, and eventually the whole world will reach that state and
shift into an era of recycling.
Next, let us examine future trends with China included.
The cumulative amount in Japan is 1.4 billion tons. With a population of around
125 million people, that works out to 11 tons per person. That figure is the saturation
value per person. If we think about its salience in terms of the population density of
Japan and the density of man-made objects according to that, we can consider it to
be the maximum saturation value per capita.
If we apply this 11 tons per person figure to China with its 1.3 billion population,
we get a saturation value of 14 billion tons. The total amount of iron accumulated in
China through 2012 is estimated to have been 8.9 billion tons. Annual demand is currently said to be 700 million tons, so the amount will reach 14 billion tons in 7–8 years.
In proportion to population, this means it will reach saturation equal to Japan.
Next, let’s look at the world as a whole. Currently, approximately 1.4 billion tons
of iron are produced annually around the world. The portion of this that is iron produced from blast furnaces using iron ore amounts to 1 billion tons annually and
represents the new cumulative amount globally. The remaining 400 million tons
comprise recycled iron produced in electric furnaces using scrap.
The total amount of iron that humanity has produced and accumulated up to now
is estimated to be about 30 billion tons. It exists in various places around the world
as man-made objects. That constitutes an urban mine. Furthermore, if we assume
that the amount of iron will continue to accumulate at 1 billion tons annually as it
does today resulting in an accumulation of 34 billion tons by 2050, then the total
size of urban mines will reach 64 billion tons. The saturated cumulative amount for
a global population of 9.3 billion people at 11 tons per person is approximately 100
billion tons. Given that we will be at 64% of saturation volume in 2050, this is comparable to where Japan was around 1990. If the conditions that existed in Japan
25 years ago are produced around the world, then it is quite likely that demand for
it will be at saturation.
Moreover, if we assume the life-span of man-made objects that use iron to be
30 years, then the cumulative amount of scrap produced in 1 year would be 1/30th
the total or about 2.1 billion tons annually. Currently, scrap is being generated in
amounts that far exceed the world’s production volume. The amount of energy consumed in the future will consequently be more on the shift from scrap being markedly reduced to being thrown out than it will on the use of iron ore. That is to say, it
may be assumed that a sense of saturation with iron will have permeated the world
in 2050.
2 Progress on Vision 2050 Since 1995