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things we can do in our daily activities like using bicycles when possible or tamping
down on excessive packaging or not making photocopies we do not really need, but
getting large groups of people to make extreme changes in their ways of life in a
short period of time is difficult. The world does not operate on idealism alone.
Vision 2050 also keeps reassessments of our lifestyles in mind, but it is limited in its
expectations of any quantitative effects. The emphasis is on finding avenues for
technologically improving energy consumption efficiency.
Another one of the premises of Vision 2050 is that there is little chance that
renewable energy will have replaced fossil resources across the board in 2050. If we
set aside hydroelectric power and the use of firewood in developing countries, then
the percentage of total energy that renewables contributed as of 1999 stood at less
than 1%. In contrast to fossil resources such as gasoline and coal that have a high
energy density and can be used at any time, renewable energy sources such as sunlight and wind power have a sparse energy density and the volume of energy they
produce has extreme time fluctuations. It is extremely difficult to come up with a
scenario in which people will rapidly switch across the board from sources of
energy that are easy to use and convenient to renewables that require planning when
it comes to making use of them.
These are the premises that support Vision 2050. I undertook countless studies
using the most up-to-date and detailed data I could acquire at the time I drafted it.
Close to two decades have passed since it was formulated, but I still believe that
everything in it to be current, including its premises.
The difference between developed and developing countries is likely to be a
crucial factor that should be ascertained in the future. The amount of energy consumed in developed countries will definitely decrease. Their populations have
already peaked out and are similarly shifting to a declining pattern. Japan’s population peaked at 128,060,000 people in 2008. According a National Institute of
Population and Social Security Research estimate, it might reach a maximum of
129,200,000 in 2050, or fall below 100,000,000, if the population decline accelerates. These population projections are based on suppositions about birthrates and
average longevity, but assuming there are no major changes in conditions by 2100,
it will drop to somewhere between 38 million and 65 million people.
When the size of the population falls, the total volume of energy consumed likewise falls. Furthermore, given that automobiles, houses, and household appliances
will be even more energy efficient, the amount of energy they consume will drop
even if we are still using them in the same ways. The amount of energy consumed
in Japan rose continuously through 2004, but since then, it has been falling. Current
levels of energy consumption are practically the same as those of the late 1990s
when I worked out Vision 2050.
The amount of energy consumed drops as the population decreases and energy
efficiency improves. Similar trends can be seen not only in Japan but also to varying
degrees in all developed countries. It seems likely that developing countries will
also navigate the same sorts of changes as development proceeds, their populations
will reach their upper limits, and they will reach the saturation point with man-made
objects. Vision 2050 was formulated as a realistic and rational vision statement.
1 The Message in “Vision 2050”
things we can do in our daily activities like using bicycles when possible or tamping
down on excessive packaging or not making photocopies we do not really need, but
getting large groups of people to make extreme changes in their ways of life in a
short period of time is difficult. The world does not operate on idealism alone.
Vision 2050 also keeps reassessments of our lifestyles in mind, but it is limited in its
expectations of any quantitative effects. The emphasis is on finding avenues for
technologically improving energy consumption efficiency.
Another one of the premises of Vision 2050 is that there is little chance that
renewable energy will have replaced fossil resources across the board in 2050. If we
set aside hydroelectric power and the use of firewood in developing countries, then
the percentage of total energy that renewables contributed as of 1999 stood at less
than 1%. In contrast to fossil resources such as gasoline and coal that have a high
energy density and can be used at any time, renewable energy sources such as sunlight and wind power have a sparse energy density and the volume of energy they
produce has extreme time fluctuations. It is extremely difficult to come up with a
scenario in which people will rapidly switch across the board from sources of
energy that are easy to use and convenient to renewables that require planning when
it comes to making use of them.
These are the premises that support Vision 2050. I undertook countless studies
using the most up-to-date and detailed data I could acquire at the time I drafted it.
Close to two decades have passed since it was formulated, but I still believe that
everything in it to be current, including its premises.
The difference between developed and developing countries is likely to be a
crucial factor that should be ascertained in the future. The amount of energy consumed in developed countries will definitely decrease. Their populations have
already peaked out and are similarly shifting to a declining pattern. Japan’s population peaked at 128,060,000 people in 2008. According a National Institute of
Population and Social Security Research estimate, it might reach a maximum of
129,200,000 in 2050, or fall below 100,000,000, if the population decline accelerates. These population projections are based on suppositions about birthrates and
average longevity, but assuming there are no major changes in conditions by 2100,
it will drop to somewhere between 38 million and 65 million people.
When the size of the population falls, the total volume of energy consumed likewise falls. Furthermore, given that automobiles, houses, and household appliances
will be even more energy efficient, the amount of energy they consume will drop
even if we are still using them in the same ways. The amount of energy consumed
in Japan rose continuously through 2004, but since then, it has been falling. Current
levels of energy consumption are practically the same as those of the late 1990s
when I worked out Vision 2050.
The amount of energy consumed drops as the population decreases and energy
efficiency improves. Similar trends can be seen not only in Japan but also to varying
degrees in all developed countries. It seems likely that developing countries will
also navigate the same sorts of changes as development proceeds, their populations
will reach their upper limits, and they will reach the saturation point with man-made
objects. Vision 2050 was formulated as a realistic and rational vision statement.
1 The Message in “Vision 2050”