5
We know from recent climatological research that the global environment exists
in a truly delicate balance. Even one slight change to one component in the atmosphere could change the ecosystem dramatically.
1.2 What Is Vision 2050?
1.2.1 The Vision for 2050
To keep global warming in check will require keeping down the CO 2 concentrations
in the atmosphere. In Vision 2050, I ran simulations for the supplies of materials and
energy as well as CO 2 concentrations for 2050 based on the volume of energy used
in 1990.
In 1990, humans consumed a total amount of energy equivalent to 7.5 billion
tons of resources, comprising roughly 6 billion tons of fossil resources and 1.5 billion tons of non-fossil resources (biomass, hydraulic power, and nuclear power).
The world’s population was around 6 billion people at that time, meaning each
person consumed about one ton of fossil resources. There is in fact a considerable
difference between developed and developing countries, with developed countries
having consumed about 4.5 billion tons. Breaking down the amount of consumption
per person by country, we see the figures were 2.4 tons for Japan, 2.5 tons for the
UK, 2.6 tons for Germany, and 5.3 tons for the United States. If the figure for the
U.S. is excluded as an outlier, then the average amount consumed per person in the
developed countries of Europe and Japan was 2.3 tons.
The total population of the world is forecast to be 9.3 billion people in 2050. Of
this, the population of developing countries will account for about 8 billion people.
If they lead lives on par with those of developed countries, then multiplying that
2.3-ton figure by 8 billion people results in approximately 18.5 billion tons of fossil
resources being consumed. Biomass will amount for 1 billion tons of this just as in
the benchmark year. Also, if demand in developed countries in 2050 remains the
same as in the benchmark year, then this means 5 billion tons of energy – comprising 4.5 billion tons of fossil and 0.5 billion of non-fossil resources – will be consumed. The global total for energy consumption will be 23.5 billion tons, equivalent
to triple the figure for the benchmark year. This is what’s behind the tacit understanding of many that the planet will not bear up if all people on it become
affluent.
However, these calculations are premised by the technology of the benchmark
year. If the technology evolves, then energy use efficiency will improve. For example, if energy use efficiency were tripled by 2050, then the amount of energy consumed would end up around the same as the benchmark year at 7.5 billion tons
(Figs. 1.1 and 1.2).
Even so, if the amount of fossil resources used is the same as it was in 1990, then
CO 2 would also continue to be emitted at the same levels. It thus would not be possible to return the global environment to conditions prior to that time. To arrest the
1.2 What Is Vision 2050?
We know from recent climatological research that the global environment exists
in a truly delicate balance. Even one slight change to one component in the atmosphere could change the ecosystem dramatically.
1.2 What Is Vision 2050?
1.2.1 The Vision for 2050
To keep global warming in check will require keeping down the CO 2 concentrations
in the atmosphere. In Vision 2050, I ran simulations for the supplies of materials and
energy as well as CO 2 concentrations for 2050 based on the volume of energy used
in 1990.
In 1990, humans consumed a total amount of energy equivalent to 7.5 billion
tons of resources, comprising roughly 6 billion tons of fossil resources and 1.5 billion tons of non-fossil resources (biomass, hydraulic power, and nuclear power).
The world’s population was around 6 billion people at that time, meaning each
person consumed about one ton of fossil resources. There is in fact a considerable
difference between developed and developing countries, with developed countries
having consumed about 4.5 billion tons. Breaking down the amount of consumption
per person by country, we see the figures were 2.4 tons for Japan, 2.5 tons for the
UK, 2.6 tons for Germany, and 5.3 tons for the United States. If the figure for the
U.S. is excluded as an outlier, then the average amount consumed per person in the
developed countries of Europe and Japan was 2.3 tons.
The total population of the world is forecast to be 9.3 billion people in 2050. Of
this, the population of developing countries will account for about 8 billion people.
If they lead lives on par with those of developed countries, then multiplying that
2.3-ton figure by 8 billion people results in approximately 18.5 billion tons of fossil
resources being consumed. Biomass will amount for 1 billion tons of this just as in
the benchmark year. Also, if demand in developed countries in 2050 remains the
same as in the benchmark year, then this means 5 billion tons of energy – comprising 4.5 billion tons of fossil and 0.5 billion of non-fossil resources – will be consumed. The global total for energy consumption will be 23.5 billion tons, equivalent
to triple the figure for the benchmark year. This is what’s behind the tacit understanding of many that the planet will not bear up if all people on it become
affluent.
However, these calculations are premised by the technology of the benchmark
year. If the technology evolves, then energy use efficiency will improve. For example, if energy use efficiency were tripled by 2050, then the amount of energy consumed would end up around the same as the benchmark year at 7.5 billion tons
(Figs. 1.1 and 1.2).
Even so, if the amount of fossil resources used is the same as it was in 1990, then
CO 2 would also continue to be emitted at the same levels. It thus would not be possible to return the global environment to conditions prior to that time. To arrest the
1.2 What Is Vision 2050?