xiv
Saturation of Man-Made Objects
Table Intro-1 shows the ratio of automobile ownership to the population for each
country. A ratio of 0.5 indicates that one car is owned by every two persons, a level
at which car ownership reaches a saturation point, regardless of the country. When
saturation occurs, an equilibrium state is reached where the number of new cars sold
becomes equal to the number of cars discarded. In Japan, this number would be 5
million cars, which is derived at by dividing 60 million cars by 12, the average number of years it takes for a new car to be scrapped. In other words, domestic demand
for automobiles is saturated.
In developed countries where automobiles are saturated, the consumption of
electrical appliances, buildings, plastics, as well as many other manufactured goods
has also become saturated. Looking at the process of development of a country’s
economy, first, infrastructure such as roads and railways is constructed followed by
production of basic goods, such as fertilizers and fibers. As people start to become
affluent, they acquire electric appliances, etc., and as they reach the peak of affluence, they start to demand automobiles. Therefore, in countries where automobiles
are saturated, other man-made objects are also saturated. In developed countries, the
sales volume of man-made objects has reached saturation point. This essentially
explains the low growth rate of advanced countries.
It is a matter of course that “things will become saturated in this finite Earth”, but
perhaps it is also matter of course that we tend to overlook this obvious fact.
Saturation of Minerals
Iron, produced from iron ore, is the most important material in terms of both quality
and quantity. It is produced from iron ore. Once made, iron will never be discarded.
When buildings are dismantled, iron materials such as steel frames are recovered as
scrap, melted, and supplied to society once again. Therefore, when the number of
man-made objects saturates, and the amount produced equals the amount discarded,
the iron supplied by breaking down the discarded man-made objects will be sufficient to sustainably make all the new man-made objects.
Figure 8 shows the total amount of iron contained in man-made objects such as
buildings and automobiles that currently exist in Japan as well as their annual increments and decrements. The total amount of iron has approached about 14 billion
tons, and the amount accumulated every year has been approaching zero. In fact, the
amount of iron used in man-made objects in Japan every year and the amount of
scrap iron have become equal at about 30 million tons respectively. Therefore, in
Japan’s case, the iron supply from recovered scrap is sufficient, and hence it is no
Preface: From “Vision 2050” to “New Vision 2050”
Saturation of Man-Made Objects
Table Intro-1 shows the ratio of automobile ownership to the population for each
country. A ratio of 0.5 indicates that one car is owned by every two persons, a level
at which car ownership reaches a saturation point, regardless of the country. When
saturation occurs, an equilibrium state is reached where the number of new cars sold
becomes equal to the number of cars discarded. In Japan, this number would be 5
million cars, which is derived at by dividing 60 million cars by 12, the average number of years it takes for a new car to be scrapped. In other words, domestic demand
for automobiles is saturated.
In developed countries where automobiles are saturated, the consumption of
electrical appliances, buildings, plastics, as well as many other manufactured goods
has also become saturated. Looking at the process of development of a country’s
economy, first, infrastructure such as roads and railways is constructed followed by
production of basic goods, such as fertilizers and fibers. As people start to become
affluent, they acquire electric appliances, etc., and as they reach the peak of affluence, they start to demand automobiles. Therefore, in countries where automobiles
are saturated, other man-made objects are also saturated. In developed countries, the
sales volume of man-made objects has reached saturation point. This essentially
explains the low growth rate of advanced countries.
It is a matter of course that “things will become saturated in this finite Earth”, but
perhaps it is also matter of course that we tend to overlook this obvious fact.
Saturation of Minerals
Iron, produced from iron ore, is the most important material in terms of both quality
and quantity. It is produced from iron ore. Once made, iron will never be discarded.
When buildings are dismantled, iron materials such as steel frames are recovered as
scrap, melted, and supplied to society once again. Therefore, when the number of
man-made objects saturates, and the amount produced equals the amount discarded,
the iron supplied by breaking down the discarded man-made objects will be sufficient to sustainably make all the new man-made objects.
Figure 8 shows the total amount of iron contained in man-made objects such as
buildings and automobiles that currently exist in Japan as well as their annual increments and decrements. The total amount of iron has approached about 14 billion
tons, and the amount accumulated every year has been approaching zero. In fact, the
amount of iron used in man-made objects in Japan every year and the amount of
scrap iron have become equal at about 30 million tons respectively. Therefore, in
Japan’s case, the iron supply from recovered scrap is sufficient, and hence it is no
Preface: From “Vision 2050” to “New Vision 2050”