xiii
Saturation of the Population
Will population explosion lead to the destruction of mankind? This belief has been
popularized until half a century ago, although many experts continue to express
such an opinion today. However, it is probably just baseless fear.
Figure 7 shows the number of births in the world. If the number of children born
reaches a point of saturation, the overall population is likely to become saturated.
Likewise, if the number of births decreases, the overall population would likely
decline eventually. Although the future population depends on the number of births
and average life expectancy, the number of births is of foremost importance in the
population forecast, given that average life expectancy is headed toward a plateau.
Looking at the figure, the number of births that once peaked in 1988 has begun to
increase again from 1998. This can be attributed to the increase in the number of
births in Africa. However, outside of Africa, the population is projected to decrease.
The number of children a woman can bear usually decreases when the GDP
increases. History has furthermore shown that the number of births decreases when
women are educated. This is clear from the current situation in developed countries
where birth rates have declined, resulting in a struggle to maintain their populations.
For the future, it is important to suppress population growth by promoting education
in Africa. If this is carried out properly, the fear of population explosion will
subside.
Rather than worry about population explosion, we must shift toward expanding
efforts to maintain the population. Many developing countries have done so, not to
mention developed countries.
The twenty-first century is a century in which the population becomes
saturated.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Unit: Millions of people
Fig. 7 Changes in the Annual Number of Live Births in the World. (Source: World Population
Prospects, 2015 Revised Edition)
Preface: From “Vision 2050” to “New Vision 2050”
Saturation of the Population
Will population explosion lead to the destruction of mankind? This belief has been
popularized until half a century ago, although many experts continue to express
such an opinion today. However, it is probably just baseless fear.
Figure 7 shows the number of births in the world. If the number of children born
reaches a point of saturation, the overall population is likely to become saturated.
Likewise, if the number of births decreases, the overall population would likely
decline eventually. Although the future population depends on the number of births
and average life expectancy, the number of births is of foremost importance in the
population forecast, given that average life expectancy is headed toward a plateau.
Looking at the figure, the number of births that once peaked in 1988 has begun to
increase again from 1998. This can be attributed to the increase in the number of
births in Africa. However, outside of Africa, the population is projected to decrease.
The number of children a woman can bear usually decreases when the GDP
increases. History has furthermore shown that the number of births decreases when
women are educated. This is clear from the current situation in developed countries
where birth rates have declined, resulting in a struggle to maintain their populations.
For the future, it is important to suppress population growth by promoting education
in Africa. If this is carried out properly, the fear of population explosion will
subside.
Rather than worry about population explosion, we must shift toward expanding
efforts to maintain the population. Many developing countries have done so, not to
mention developed countries.
The twenty-first century is a century in which the population becomes
saturated.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Unit: Millions of people
Fig. 7 Changes in the Annual Number of Live Births in the World. (Source: World Population
Prospects, 2015 Revised Edition)
Preface: From “Vision 2050” to “New Vision 2050”