94
to combine the Blast Furnace Method with CCS. Assuming that CCS cost will be
¥4000 per ton of CO 2 , the annual cost will be about ¥96 billion, and the cost increase
per ton of steel will be about ¥3200, if the cost increase is allocated to the whole
Blast Furnace Method. It may be possible to manufacture high value-added steel
corresponding to this cost increase.
Therefore, a more realistic scenario is Case 2, where the Electric Furnace Method
using recycled steel is doubled and steel production using the Blast Furnace Method
is reduced by approximately 80%. If we can change the structure of steel production
in this way, reduction of CO 2 emissions by 80% is possible. In this case, the level of
unit CO 2 emissions using the Blast Furnace Method is assumed to be the same as the
current level. If improvements to the manufacturing process continue, it will be possible to increase the production quantity of steel using the Blast Furnace Method
commensurate with that progress.
5.3 Reducing CO 2 Emissions by 80% Across Japan
5.3.1 Low Carbonization by Sector in 2050
Reducing CO 2 emissions by 80% in the three sectors (households, transportation,
and steel) is not easy; however, it is feasible. These emissions account for 53% of
Japan’s total emissions, and thus CO 2 emissions from other sectors must also be
reduced by 80%.
Table 5.5 illustrates the CO 2 emissions by sector in the base year 2013 and in
2050, by which CO 2 emissions are to be reduced by 80%. Out of the total emissions
in other sectors (586 million tons of CO 2 /year), 60% is derived from electricity, so
this can be reduced by 80% in the future as previously discussed. The focus is the
remaining 40%, involving reduction of emissions due to the use of fossil fuels from
235 million tons to 47 million tons. This can be realized with energy saving and an
increase in electricity usage ratio. While expanding economic activities, it is
Table 5.5 CO 2 emissions of the 3 sectors (households, iron and steel, and transportation) for 2013
and for 2050 when 80% reduction will have been realized
CO 2 emissions (Mt)
Electricity
Other than electricity
Total
The 3 sectors
2013
216
452
668
2050
43
90
133
Other sectors
2013
351
235
586
2050
70
47
117
Total
2013
567
687
1,254
2050
113
137
250
Source: Created based on materials from the Center for Low Carbon Society Strategy, Japan
Science and Technology Agency
5 Low-Carbon Society in 2050
to combine the Blast Furnace Method with CCS. Assuming that CCS cost will be
¥4000 per ton of CO 2 , the annual cost will be about ¥96 billion, and the cost increase
per ton of steel will be about ¥3200, if the cost increase is allocated to the whole
Blast Furnace Method. It may be possible to manufacture high value-added steel
corresponding to this cost increase.
Therefore, a more realistic scenario is Case 2, where the Electric Furnace Method
using recycled steel is doubled and steel production using the Blast Furnace Method
is reduced by approximately 80%. If we can change the structure of steel production
in this way, reduction of CO 2 emissions by 80% is possible. In this case, the level of
unit CO 2 emissions using the Blast Furnace Method is assumed to be the same as the
current level. If improvements to the manufacturing process continue, it will be possible to increase the production quantity of steel using the Blast Furnace Method
commensurate with that progress.
5.3 Reducing CO 2 Emissions by 80% Across Japan
5.3.1 Low Carbonization by Sector in 2050
Reducing CO 2 emissions by 80% in the three sectors (households, transportation,
and steel) is not easy; however, it is feasible. These emissions account for 53% of
Japan’s total emissions, and thus CO 2 emissions from other sectors must also be
reduced by 80%.
Table 5.5 illustrates the CO 2 emissions by sector in the base year 2013 and in
2050, by which CO 2 emissions are to be reduced by 80%. Out of the total emissions
in other sectors (586 million tons of CO 2 /year), 60% is derived from electricity, so
this can be reduced by 80% in the future as previously discussed. The focus is the
remaining 40%, involving reduction of emissions due to the use of fossil fuels from
235 million tons to 47 million tons. This can be realized with energy saving and an
increase in electricity usage ratio. While expanding economic activities, it is
Table 5.5 CO 2 emissions of the 3 sectors (households, iron and steel, and transportation) for 2013
and for 2050 when 80% reduction will have been realized
CO 2 emissions (Mt)
Electricity
Other than electricity
Total
The 3 sectors
2013
216
452
668
2050
43
90
133
Other sectors
2013
351
235
586
2050
70
47
117
Total
2013
567
687
1,254
2050
113
137
250
Source: Created based on materials from the Center for Low Carbon Society Strategy, Japan
Science and Technology Agency
5 Low-Carbon Society in 2050