77
enforced. At that time, it was also said that it would be impossible to achieve such a
decrease because of the extremely high target value, but Japanese manufacturers
worked diligently to realize this. Later, as environmental regulations around the
world became stricter, Japanese technology had a major advantage.
Innovations often happen when seeking to achieve a high target that initially
seems impossible. The important thing is setting a target that seems impossible at
first sight, but not reckless.
The authors’ research team made technical predictions concerning air conditioners in 1990 based on the thermodynamic theory and also the heat balance. Air conditioners use heat pump technology for absorbing and releasing heat against the
temperature difference between indoors and outdoors. The energy efficiency is represented by the numerical value of the coefficient of performance. Before 1990, the
coefficient of performance was 3 because air conditioners could heat up or cool
down 3 kW with 1 kW of electricity.
The theoretical limit of the coefficient of performance is calculated as the indoor
temperature divided by the temperature difference. The temperature here is absolute
temperature in which 273 is added to the temperature in Celsius (°C). Assuming that
the room temperature is 28 °C and the outside air is 35 °C, the coefficient of performance will be (273 + 28) / (35–28) = 43. In other words, 43 times the heat of the
consumed electric energy can be pumped out of the room by the heat pump. This
number represents is the theoretical value, which is large compared with the value
of 3 before 1990. Thus, there is considerable room for innovation here.
In 1990, our team predicted the coefficient of performance in 2050 to be 12. A
quadrupling of the coefficient of performance means that the efficiency will be quadrupled. Manufacturers’ technicians strongly objected, saying that it was impossible to achieve the coefficient of 12, and it was completely ignored by the former
Ministry of International Trade and Industry (currently the Ministry of Economy,
Trade, and Industry). However, we had confidence in achieving the coefficient of
12. For the prediction, we even considered improving the efficiency of magnets of
motors used in compressors of air conditioners. Since the compressors at that time
were consuming twice the amount of electricity as the theoretical value, we thought
that we could solve it by using a more efficient magnet. In addition, we examined
detailed elemental technologies such as fluid dynamics technology and lubricant
technology, and judged that 12 was an appropriate level of possible achievement
rather than the theoretical value of 43.
The prediction was largely accurate. As of 1990, when the coefficient of performance was 3, the value of 12 in Vision 2050 seemed to be an extremely high target,
but it increased to 7 in 2010, and has steadily evolved thereafter. In response to this
trend, the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry also raised the target value for
2050 to 12. Looking at the circumstances, the importance of applying theory and
comprehensive and realistic technological forecasts is obvious, rather than merely
being a prediction based on the past. In order to induce innovation, high but reasonable target setting is necessary.
4.2 Innovations Emerging from Theory and IT
enforced. At that time, it was also said that it would be impossible to achieve such a
decrease because of the extremely high target value, but Japanese manufacturers
worked diligently to realize this. Later, as environmental regulations around the
world became stricter, Japanese technology had a major advantage.
Innovations often happen when seeking to achieve a high target that initially
seems impossible. The important thing is setting a target that seems impossible at
first sight, but not reckless.
The authors’ research team made technical predictions concerning air conditioners in 1990 based on the thermodynamic theory and also the heat balance. Air conditioners use heat pump technology for absorbing and releasing heat against the
temperature difference between indoors and outdoors. The energy efficiency is represented by the numerical value of the coefficient of performance. Before 1990, the
coefficient of performance was 3 because air conditioners could heat up or cool
down 3 kW with 1 kW of electricity.
The theoretical limit of the coefficient of performance is calculated as the indoor
temperature divided by the temperature difference. The temperature here is absolute
temperature in which 273 is added to the temperature in Celsius (°C). Assuming that
the room temperature is 28 °C and the outside air is 35 °C, the coefficient of performance will be (273 + 28) / (35–28) = 43. In other words, 43 times the heat of the
consumed electric energy can be pumped out of the room by the heat pump. This
number represents is the theoretical value, which is large compared with the value
of 3 before 1990. Thus, there is considerable room for innovation here.
In 1990, our team predicted the coefficient of performance in 2050 to be 12. A
quadrupling of the coefficient of performance means that the efficiency will be quadrupled. Manufacturers’ technicians strongly objected, saying that it was impossible to achieve the coefficient of 12, and it was completely ignored by the former
Ministry of International Trade and Industry (currently the Ministry of Economy,
Trade, and Industry). However, we had confidence in achieving the coefficient of
12. For the prediction, we even considered improving the efficiency of magnets of
motors used in compressors of air conditioners. Since the compressors at that time
were consuming twice the amount of electricity as the theoretical value, we thought
that we could solve it by using a more efficient magnet. In addition, we examined
detailed elemental technologies such as fluid dynamics technology and lubricant
technology, and judged that 12 was an appropriate level of possible achievement
rather than the theoretical value of 43.
The prediction was largely accurate. As of 1990, when the coefficient of performance was 3, the value of 12 in Vision 2050 seemed to be an extremely high target,
but it increased to 7 in 2010, and has steadily evolved thereafter. In response to this
trend, the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry also raised the target value for
2050 to 12. Looking at the circumstances, the importance of applying theory and
comprehensive and realistic technological forecasts is obvious, rather than merely
being a prediction based on the past. In order to induce innovation, high but reasonable target setting is necessary.
4.2 Innovations Emerging from Theory and IT