65
4.1.3 Importance of Balance Between Future Cost
and Investment
First of all, let’s look at the evaluation result for solar power generation systems.
Table 4.1 shows the prediction of the performances and costs in 2020 and 2030,
referring to 2012 as the base year. The current mainstream, single crystal silicon
solar cell (single crystal Si), has a module conversion efficiency of 17%, whereas
15% can be achieved with a compound thin film solar cell (CIGS), which has an
expanding market. However, it is expected that by 2020, CIGS technology will
improve and power generation efficiency will rise to 18%, and annual production
volume will increase, while manufacturing cost could be reduced. Furthermore,
apart from CIGS, a new type of thin-film solar cell will also be introduced, and
conversion efficiency of this is predicted to be about 15%.
The thickness of monocrystalline Si would be suppressed to less than 1/3 of the
current level, and power generation efficiency will increase to 25% by 2030. In
addition, the tandem CIGS type with the layered structure of multiple CIGSs will
expand the market with the high performance of 30% conversion efficiency as a
major strength.
Table 4.1 Breakdown of solar power generation system costs
Technological level
Current situation in
2015
2020
2030
Solar cell
Singlecrystal Si
150 μm
thickness
CIGS CIGS
New
thinfilm
Singlecrystal Si
50 μm
thickness
New
CIGS
tandem
Module conversion efficiency 20%
15% 18% 15% 25%
30%
Amount of annual production
(GW/Year)
1
1
5
1
5
5
Production
cost
Variable costs (raw
material costs)
56
51
40
34
35
29
Variable costs
(utilities expenses)
4
2
1
2
1
1
Fixed costs
(equipment costs
and personnel
expenses)
14
14
9
12
6
7
Module subtotal
(Yen/W)
74
67
50
48
42
37
BOS
Frame (including
construction costs)
22
29
27
32
12
10
Power conditioner 30
30
20
20
10
10
BOS subtotal
(Yen/W)
52
59
47
52
22
20
System (Yen/W)
126
126 97
100
64
57
Source: Created based on materials from the Center for Low-Carbon Society Strategy, Japan
Science and Technology Agency
4.1 Future Image of Renewable Energy
4.1.3 Importance of Balance Between Future Cost
and Investment
First of all, let’s look at the evaluation result for solar power generation systems.
Table 4.1 shows the prediction of the performances and costs in 2020 and 2030,
referring to 2012 as the base year. The current mainstream, single crystal silicon
solar cell (single crystal Si), has a module conversion efficiency of 17%, whereas
15% can be achieved with a compound thin film solar cell (CIGS), which has an
expanding market. However, it is expected that by 2020, CIGS technology will
improve and power generation efficiency will rise to 18%, and annual production
volume will increase, while manufacturing cost could be reduced. Furthermore,
apart from CIGS, a new type of thin-film solar cell will also be introduced, and
conversion efficiency of this is predicted to be about 15%.
The thickness of monocrystalline Si would be suppressed to less than 1/3 of the
current level, and power generation efficiency will increase to 25% by 2030. In
addition, the tandem CIGS type with the layered structure of multiple CIGSs will
expand the market with the high performance of 30% conversion efficiency as a
major strength.
Table 4.1 Breakdown of solar power generation system costs
Technological level
Current situation in
2015
2020
2030
Solar cell
Singlecrystal Si
150 μm
thickness
CIGS CIGS
New
thinfilm
Singlecrystal Si
50 μm
thickness
New
CIGS
tandem
Module conversion efficiency 20%
15% 18% 15% 25%
30%
Amount of annual production
(GW/Year)
1
1
5
1
5
5
Production
cost
Variable costs (raw
material costs)
56
51
40
34
35
29
Variable costs
(utilities expenses)
4
2
1
2
1
1
Fixed costs
(equipment costs
and personnel
expenses)
14
14
9
12
6
7
Module subtotal
(Yen/W)
74
67
50
48
42
37
BOS
Frame (including
construction costs)
22
29
27
32
12
10
Power conditioner 30
30
20
20
10
10
BOS subtotal
(Yen/W)
52
59
47
52
22
20
System (Yen/W)
126
126 97
100
64
57
Source: Created based on materials from the Center for Low-Carbon Society Strategy, Japan
Science and Technology Agency
4.1 Future Image of Renewable Energy