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resources. To that end, it is necessary to expand the use of renewable energies such
as sunlight, wind power, and biomass.
As mentioned in Chap. 2, considering the progress since 1995, “doubling renewable energy” as proposed in Vision 2050 should be revised upward to “half the total
energy should come from renewable sources.” Let’s look at specific strategies to
achieve this goal.
4.1.2 The Future Image of Solar Cells and Storage Batteries
In the long run, the main power supply will become renewable energy rather than
fossil fuels. There are many types of renewable energy such as hydropower, wind
power, geothermal power, and biomass. Among these, solar power has enormous
energy availability, and there is also room for cost reduction through future technological development. Thus, expectations are growing for expansion of usage.
However, the amount of power generation varies under the natural cycles of sunlight. In summer and winter, the sunshine hours and sunshine intensity are different,
and the weather changes from day to day. In addition, although power generation is
limited to daytime but usage takes place in daytime and nighttime and there is thus
a gap between the electricity supply and the timing of demand. In order to compensate for this, it is necessary to use a storage battery in combination with the photovoltaic technology. Therefore, not only the photovoltaic power generation system
but also the future trends of the storage battery must be clarified in order to study
and design the future power supply configuration.
There are various research and reports on cost analysis such as past trend analysis, prospects and scenarios announced by associations and administration, technical roadmaps, market research, and economic analysis. However, these are mainly
evaluations of economic efficiency based on experience curves (learning curves).
Changes in raw materials, processes, and production scales due to future technological development are not sufficiently discussed, hence it is impossible to project
the manufacturing cost.
The method that we applied to make the projections described below puts emphasis on clarifying concrete technical contents to calculate current and future costs.
Then we will design the manufacturing process including a detailed equipment list
and quantitatively evaluate the economics and environment of products and systems
based on the results.
Also, since the influence of the cost of the production scale and the technology
level is large, the relationship between these factors will also be clarified. The speed
of future technical advancement will be predicted from the progress of related
technologies.
This evaluation approach is also useful for planning the investment time and
production scale in the product manufacturing plant.
4 Technology to Support Low-Carbon Society (Utilizing Energy)
resources. To that end, it is necessary to expand the use of renewable energies such
as sunlight, wind power, and biomass.
As mentioned in Chap. 2, considering the progress since 1995, “doubling renewable energy” as proposed in Vision 2050 should be revised upward to “half the total
energy should come from renewable sources.” Let’s look at specific strategies to
achieve this goal.
4.1.2 The Future Image of Solar Cells and Storage Batteries
In the long run, the main power supply will become renewable energy rather than
fossil fuels. There are many types of renewable energy such as hydropower, wind
power, geothermal power, and biomass. Among these, solar power has enormous
energy availability, and there is also room for cost reduction through future technological development. Thus, expectations are growing for expansion of usage.
However, the amount of power generation varies under the natural cycles of sunlight. In summer and winter, the sunshine hours and sunshine intensity are different,
and the weather changes from day to day. In addition, although power generation is
limited to daytime but usage takes place in daytime and nighttime and there is thus
a gap between the electricity supply and the timing of demand. In order to compensate for this, it is necessary to use a storage battery in combination with the photovoltaic technology. Therefore, not only the photovoltaic power generation system
but also the future trends of the storage battery must be clarified in order to study
and design the future power supply configuration.
There are various research and reports on cost analysis such as past trend analysis, prospects and scenarios announced by associations and administration, technical roadmaps, market research, and economic analysis. However, these are mainly
evaluations of economic efficiency based on experience curves (learning curves).
Changes in raw materials, processes, and production scales due to future technological development are not sufficiently discussed, hence it is impossible to project
the manufacturing cost.
The method that we applied to make the projections described below puts emphasis on clarifying concrete technical contents to calculate current and future costs.
Then we will design the manufacturing process including a detailed equipment list
and quantitatively evaluate the economics and environment of products and systems
based on the results.
Also, since the influence of the cost of the production scale and the technology
level is large, the relationship between these factors will also be clarified. The speed
of future technical advancement will be predicted from the progress of related
technologies.
This evaluation approach is also useful for planning the investment time and
production scale in the product manufacturing plant.
4 Technology to Support Low-Carbon Society (Utilizing Energy)