of the minimum levels (minimum energy consumption, daily amount of clean water
per capita etc.) and the corresponding GHG emissions level can be challenging, this
is the case for the housing sector with the indoor temperature.
According to IPCC’s latest report,
5 in 2010, buildings accounted for 19 % of the
GHG emissions. This same report highlighted the need for scaling up low-energy
demand housing systems in LDCs. Low-energy buildings aim to achieve minimum
service level without relying on energy-intensive equipment for heating or cooling
to avoid a locking in carbon-intensive buildings for several decades. In order to
support climate change policies, the evaluation of housing projects in LDCs should
integrate this potential carbon-locking and therefore assess the impact of
low-energy housing systems using the suppressed demand. But the minimum
level for indoor temperature is difficult to estimate as it is highly context specific.
Globally, the minimum indoor temperature recommended by the WHO is 18
C
with up to 20–21
C for more vulnerable groups, such as older people and young
children.
6
Achieving sustainable development in the housing sector of cold regions like
Afghanistan requires important improvement of the indoor temperature while
mitigating the emissions of the business-as-usual technologies and practices. Therefore the evaluation of the climate change impact of projects in the housing sector of
cold regions should also account for the avoided emissions of the intervention
compare to the business-as-usual development pathway in addition of the actual
emission reduction. This study presents an application of the suppressed demand
approach for the housing sector in a difficult context through the case study of the
Passive Solar Houses project in Afghanistan. This case study presents the importance of accounting for the avoided emissions when minimum service level are not
reached due to incomes barriers but also the methodological challenges of estimating the emissions to reach the same level of service using baseline technologies.
10.2 Approach
All over Afghanistan, winters are severe and access to sufficient fuel is a challenge.
Most of the households rely on biomass fuels like wood, sawdust or cow dung or
mineral coal for heating. In Kabul, energy expenses represent roughly 20 % of
households’ annual expenses with 6 % only for heating. These fuel expenses are
5 O. Lucon et al., “Buildings,” in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Gourp III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (United Kingdom, New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2014),
671–738, https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter9.pdf.
6 WHO, “Health Impact of Low Indoor Temperatures” (Copenhagen: Would Health Organization
– Regional Office for Europe, 1985), http://www.theclaymoreproject.com/uploads/associate/365/
file/Health%20Documents/WHO%20-%20health%20impact%20of%20low%20indoor%20tem
peratures%20%28WHO,%201985%29.pdf.
10 Integrating Avoided Emissions in Climate Change Evaluation Policies for. . .
173
per capita etc.) and the corresponding GHG emissions level can be challenging, this
is the case for the housing sector with the indoor temperature.
According to IPCC’s latest report,
5 in 2010, buildings accounted for 19 % of the
GHG emissions. This same report highlighted the need for scaling up low-energy
demand housing systems in LDCs. Low-energy buildings aim to achieve minimum
service level without relying on energy-intensive equipment for heating or cooling
to avoid a locking in carbon-intensive buildings for several decades. In order to
support climate change policies, the evaluation of housing projects in LDCs should
integrate this potential carbon-locking and therefore assess the impact of
low-energy housing systems using the suppressed demand. But the minimum
level for indoor temperature is difficult to estimate as it is highly context specific.
Globally, the minimum indoor temperature recommended by the WHO is 18
C
with up to 20–21
C for more vulnerable groups, such as older people and young
children.
6
Achieving sustainable development in the housing sector of cold regions like
Afghanistan requires important improvement of the indoor temperature while
mitigating the emissions of the business-as-usual technologies and practices. Therefore the evaluation of the climate change impact of projects in the housing sector of
cold regions should also account for the avoided emissions of the intervention
compare to the business-as-usual development pathway in addition of the actual
emission reduction. This study presents an application of the suppressed demand
approach for the housing sector in a difficult context through the case study of the
Passive Solar Houses project in Afghanistan. This case study presents the importance of accounting for the avoided emissions when minimum service level are not
reached due to incomes barriers but also the methodological challenges of estimating the emissions to reach the same level of service using baseline technologies.
10.2 Approach
All over Afghanistan, winters are severe and access to sufficient fuel is a challenge.
Most of the households rely on biomass fuels like wood, sawdust or cow dung or
mineral coal for heating. In Kabul, energy expenses represent roughly 20 % of
households’ annual expenses with 6 % only for heating. These fuel expenses are
5 O. Lucon et al., “Buildings,” in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Gourp III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (United Kingdom, New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2014),
671–738, https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter9.pdf.
6 WHO, “Health Impact of Low Indoor Temperatures” (Copenhagen: Would Health Organization
– Regional Office for Europe, 1985), http://www.theclaymoreproject.com/uploads/associate/365/
file/Health%20Documents/WHO%20-%20health%20impact%20of%20low%20indoor%20tem
peratures%20%28WHO,%201985%29.pdf.
10 Integrating Avoided Emissions in Climate Change Evaluation Policies for. . .
173