10.1 Introduction
Globally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that 1.3 billion people
still live without access to electricity and that 2.6 billon are still reliant on biomass
for cooking.
1 There is a staggering inequality in access to services and in the quality
of services between rich and poor societies – the poorer three quarters of the world’s
population use only 10 % of global energy.
2 Lack of access to minimum levels of
basic services is a serious barrier to socio-economic development and progress
toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).
3 While imperative, costeffective expansion of minimum services throughout the developing world is likely
to carry with it a significant increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the
cases of the development of infrastructures, institutions and cultural practices based
on carbon intensive development, the achievement of the SDG could come with a
“carbon lock-in” inhibiting a future switch towards low-carbon technologies.
4
Therefore the integration of the expansion of basic services into the climate
change evaluations is crucial. The latent demand for basic services that is
“suppressed” due to barriers such as low income, weak infrastructure and inadequate access to technology have to be measured and accounted in the decision
making process. Pure mitigation instruments that only focus on reducing emissions
and not on avoiding emissions are therefore likely to have minimal impact in the
long-term for developing countries and offer no incentives for alternative “cleaner”
development pathways to the poorest.
In many Least Developed Countries (LDC), the low level of historic emissions
means that there is little CO 2 emissions to reduce, rendering the gains from resultbased finance mechanisms like the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) marginal or negligible. To foster the achievement of the sustainable development
objectives of the CDM, the concept of “suppressed demand” has been integrated
in some of the methodologies allowing to account for minimum services for the
baseline GHG emission levels. In this case, instead of the historical emissions, the
baseline scenario would account for the GHG emissions if the minimum level for
basic services such as energy access, clean water or sanitation was reached. The
baseline emissions may be calculated using the baseline technologies in a case
where the barrier to meet the minimum level is the cost of operation of the
technology like fuel consumption, or new technologies corresponding to the minimum level of services in contexts where the service is available. The determination
1 WEO, Would Energy Outlook 2012 (Paris, France: International Energy Agency, n.d.), http://
www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2012_free.pdf.
2 Summary conclusions of the Vienna Energy Forum, June 2011
3 United Nations, “Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly on 25 September 2015 – 70/1.
Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.,” 2015, http://www.un.
org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol¼A/RES/70/1&Lang¼E.
4 Gregory C. Unruh and Javier Carrillo-Hermosilla, “Globalizing Carbon Lock-In,” Energy Policy
34, no. 10 (July 2006): 1185–97, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2004.10.013.
172
Y. Franc ¸ois and M. Gavald~ ao
Globally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that 1.3 billion people
still live without access to electricity and that 2.6 billon are still reliant on biomass
for cooking.
1 There is a staggering inequality in access to services and in the quality
of services between rich and poor societies – the poorer three quarters of the world’s
population use only 10 % of global energy.
2 Lack of access to minimum levels of
basic services is a serious barrier to socio-economic development and progress
toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).
3 While imperative, costeffective expansion of minimum services throughout the developing world is likely
to carry with it a significant increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the
cases of the development of infrastructures, institutions and cultural practices based
on carbon intensive development, the achievement of the SDG could come with a
“carbon lock-in” inhibiting a future switch towards low-carbon technologies.
4
Therefore the integration of the expansion of basic services into the climate
change evaluations is crucial. The latent demand for basic services that is
“suppressed” due to barriers such as low income, weak infrastructure and inadequate access to technology have to be measured and accounted in the decision
making process. Pure mitigation instruments that only focus on reducing emissions
and not on avoiding emissions are therefore likely to have minimal impact in the
long-term for developing countries and offer no incentives for alternative “cleaner”
development pathways to the poorest.
In many Least Developed Countries (LDC), the low level of historic emissions
means that there is little CO 2 emissions to reduce, rendering the gains from resultbased finance mechanisms like the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) marginal or negligible. To foster the achievement of the sustainable development
objectives of the CDM, the concept of “suppressed demand” has been integrated
in some of the methodologies allowing to account for minimum services for the
baseline GHG emission levels. In this case, instead of the historical emissions, the
baseline scenario would account for the GHG emissions if the minimum level for
basic services such as energy access, clean water or sanitation was reached. The
baseline emissions may be calculated using the baseline technologies in a case
where the barrier to meet the minimum level is the cost of operation of the
technology like fuel consumption, or new technologies corresponding to the minimum level of services in contexts where the service is available. The determination
1 WEO, Would Energy Outlook 2012 (Paris, France: International Energy Agency, n.d.), http://
www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2012_free.pdf.
2 Summary conclusions of the Vienna Energy Forum, June 2011
3 United Nations, “Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly on 25 September 2015 – 70/1.
Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.,” 2015, http://www.un.
org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol¼A/RES/70/1&Lang¼E.
4 Gregory C. Unruh and Javier Carrillo-Hermosilla, “Globalizing Carbon Lock-In,” Energy Policy
34, no. 10 (July 2006): 1185–97, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2004.10.013.
172
Y. Franc ¸ois and M. Gavald~ ao