9.7 Assessing Market Change
More important than the carbon emission reductions is the extent to which projects
contributed to change that in the long term will result in the needed market,
technological and behavioral transformations. To bring about these changes, the
projects covered through the evaluation addressed barriers related to different
sectors and markets. These projects promoted technologies and removal of barriers
to markets/technologies on wind energy, biomass energy, methane, hydro power,
solar energy, industrial efficiency, efficient lighting, building efficiency, and, transportation. The instruments developed for the evaluation tracked barriers and
changes in these markets/technologies in four spheres: Consumers/users; supply
chain and infrastructure; financing; and, policy environment. Based on applicability, market barriers considered in the analysis for a sphere included: information
gap on promoted technology or approaches, lack of interest or motivation to adopt,
lack of relevant expertise, lack of access to relevant mitigation technologies, lack of
cost effectiveness, and lack of a viable model. The instrument developed for
analysis also captured the intensity with which the given project targeted each of
the barriers prevalent in the given market, the specific activities that the GEF
implemented to target each barrier, efforts by other actors in addressing the given
barrier, and the extent to which the change evident in the status of the barrier could
be attributed to the given project. Information on these indicators was gathered
through desk review of available information, field verification, interviews and
information from independent sources.
Of the 18 projects covered through the evaluation, for 14 projects market change
was observed. The observed changes in the targeted markets may be classified into
four categories: adoption of higher quality product/technology in the market (8 projects); reduction of production/technology cost (7 projects); availability of more
and/or better suppliers (12 projects); and greater demand for promoted product/
technology (7 projects). Generally, achievement of improvement in availability and
quality of suppliers and improvements in products were linked to each other and
often due to a requirement to meet a predetermined quality standard or to achieve a
certification.
9.8 Establishing Causality and Accounting for Alternative
Hypothesis
Determining the causal variables was more demanding than determining the
observed change. The log frames and other logic models that articulate a project’s
theory of change identify its expected effects. The theories also sketch the expected
pathways through which the project outputs and outcomes would lead to its
expected long term impacts. While a project’s theory of change provides a useful
tool to understand its rationale, there are two main limitations in relying on it as a
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More important than the carbon emission reductions is the extent to which projects
contributed to change that in the long term will result in the needed market,
technological and behavioral transformations. To bring about these changes, the
projects covered through the evaluation addressed barriers related to different
sectors and markets. These projects promoted technologies and removal of barriers
to markets/technologies on wind energy, biomass energy, methane, hydro power,
solar energy, industrial efficiency, efficient lighting, building efficiency, and, transportation. The instruments developed for the evaluation tracked barriers and
changes in these markets/technologies in four spheres: Consumers/users; supply
chain and infrastructure; financing; and, policy environment. Based on applicability, market barriers considered in the analysis for a sphere included: information
gap on promoted technology or approaches, lack of interest or motivation to adopt,
lack of relevant expertise, lack of access to relevant mitigation technologies, lack of
cost effectiveness, and lack of a viable model. The instrument developed for
analysis also captured the intensity with which the given project targeted each of
the barriers prevalent in the given market, the specific activities that the GEF
implemented to target each barrier, efforts by other actors in addressing the given
barrier, and the extent to which the change evident in the status of the barrier could
be attributed to the given project. Information on these indicators was gathered
through desk review of available information, field verification, interviews and
information from independent sources.
Of the 18 projects covered through the evaluation, for 14 projects market change
was observed. The observed changes in the targeted markets may be classified into
four categories: adoption of higher quality product/technology in the market (8 projects); reduction of production/technology cost (7 projects); availability of more
and/or better suppliers (12 projects); and greater demand for promoted product/
technology (7 projects). Generally, achievement of improvement in availability and
quality of suppliers and improvements in products were linked to each other and
often due to a requirement to meet a predetermined quality standard or to achieve a
certification.
9.8 Establishing Causality and Accounting for Alternative
Hypothesis
Determining the causal variables was more demanding than determining the
observed change. The log frames and other logic models that articulate a project’s
theory of change identify its expected effects. The theories also sketch the expected
pathways through which the project outputs and outcomes would lead to its
expected long term impacts. While a project’s theory of change provides a useful
tool to understand its rationale, there are two main limitations in relying on it as a
164
A. Zazueta and N.K. Negi