capacities; and, testing implementation strategies for behavior change. Through its
support to one or more of these realms, GEF support aims to bring about conditions
and behavior that if broadly adopted can result in transformations in the long run.
The framework identifies the following as pathways for broader adoption: sustainability, mainstreaming, replication, upscaling and market change. Depending on the
intervention, one or more of these pathways can be at play. Thus while some carbon
emission reduction can take place over the short run, emission reduction at scale is
assumed to take place gradually over a longer period of time as behavior changes
and systems transform. It is also assumed that the extent and trajectory of change is
likely to be affected by multiple factors, some of which may have been addressed
by the project, while others may not have been envisioned during project preparation and/or addressed through project design. In time, the spread of tested
approaches and behavior that reduce environmental stress (carbon emission reductions) result in changes leading to improved environmental status and human
wellbeing. This process is assumed to be unpredictable, non-linearand affected by
multiple confounding factors, thus requiring constant attention and adaptation to
emerging conditions (Zazueta and Garcia 2014). In case of GEF support for climate
change mitigation activities the expected long term impact includes reduction in
GHG emissions through the transformation of the structure and function of targeted
markets (Fig. 9.1).
The TOC framework was used to develop theory of change for specific project
clusters that were covered in the evaluation. The specific theories relevant to the
projects were used in this evaluation to develop instruments that would ensure
comparability of the information gathered.
Information gathered on the specific contributions of GEF support to conditions
(knowledge and information, institutional capacities and effective implementation
strategies) to reduce CO2 emissions as well as expected impact pathways, along
with information on the rival hypothesis on observed changes, formed a basis to
assess GEF contributions to observed changes in the targeted markets.
9.5 Understanding the System Targeted by
the Intervention
The definition of the system which the intervention seeks to change has a strong
bearing on the factors that the evaluation will consider in its analysis. While the
climate change phenomena take place at different scales including local, national,
regional and global, to determine the specific evaluation questions that needed to be
asked, in addition to the underlying project’s theory of change for the given
intervention, the evaluation also focused on understanding the system that the
GEF supported activity was trying to influence, including system boundaries,
system components, interactions among components and emergent properties characteristic of each system (Holling 2001; W€ orlen and Consult n.d.). While
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A. Zazueta and N.K. Negi
support to one or more of these realms, GEF support aims to bring about conditions
and behavior that if broadly adopted can result in transformations in the long run.
The framework identifies the following as pathways for broader adoption: sustainability, mainstreaming, replication, upscaling and market change. Depending on the
intervention, one or more of these pathways can be at play. Thus while some carbon
emission reduction can take place over the short run, emission reduction at scale is
assumed to take place gradually over a longer period of time as behavior changes
and systems transform. It is also assumed that the extent and trajectory of change is
likely to be affected by multiple factors, some of which may have been addressed
by the project, while others may not have been envisioned during project preparation and/or addressed through project design. In time, the spread of tested
approaches and behavior that reduce environmental stress (carbon emission reductions) result in changes leading to improved environmental status and human
wellbeing. This process is assumed to be unpredictable, non-linearand affected by
multiple confounding factors, thus requiring constant attention and adaptation to
emerging conditions (Zazueta and Garcia 2014). In case of GEF support for climate
change mitigation activities the expected long term impact includes reduction in
GHG emissions through the transformation of the structure and function of targeted
markets (Fig. 9.1).
The TOC framework was used to develop theory of change for specific project
clusters that were covered in the evaluation. The specific theories relevant to the
projects were used in this evaluation to develop instruments that would ensure
comparability of the information gathered.
Information gathered on the specific contributions of GEF support to conditions
(knowledge and information, institutional capacities and effective implementation
strategies) to reduce CO2 emissions as well as expected impact pathways, along
with information on the rival hypothesis on observed changes, formed a basis to
assess GEF contributions to observed changes in the targeted markets.
9.5 Understanding the System Targeted by
the Intervention
The definition of the system which the intervention seeks to change has a strong
bearing on the factors that the evaluation will consider in its analysis. While the
climate change phenomena take place at different scales including local, national,
regional and global, to determine the specific evaluation questions that needed to be
asked, in addition to the underlying project’s theory of change for the given
intervention, the evaluation also focused on understanding the system that the
GEF supported activity was trying to influence, including system boundaries,
system components, interactions among components and emergent properties characteristic of each system (Holling 2001; W€ orlen and Consult n.d.). While
160
A. Zazueta and N.K. Negi